Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
While the investment case is becoming more attractive with improving fundamentals. The languishing sp is concerning. However, I would be surprised to see a stagnant share price by year end (Ceteris paribus). It's a great opportunity for me to continue picking tranches up, not complaining. Recent results clearly demonstrate good progress.
The strategy to rapidly grow into a mid-size oil and gas producer is well on its track. Great results. With the current production levels at 3000 BOEPD, PPC is in a strong position to end the year producing substantially higher volumes. Could we see 4000+ BOEPD year end? Positive tests result from EV7, EV13 and EV19 suggest we could see another +500 BOEPD come online in H2. Significant growth being achieved. Full-year 2017 and 2016 was respectively 1,121BOEPD and 533 BOEPD. We wait for the results for the 5 workover well + 3 tests at Estancia Vieja. Exciting times ahead for PPC. Goldman Sachs still expects the price of oil to climb back above $80 a barrel over the coming months. I remember seeing that we're getting around $66.5.
Does the $54m account for the rising oil prices? I feel it's always better to be conservative and cautious for a company, rather than overestimate and be punished as a result. In light of that, I think they've forecasted turnover of $60-65. In either case, ~£40m would be fantastic. Reduce net debt + look for further acquisition/s to increase production. Major skin in the game from PL. Big institutional backers - IFC, Schroders, JP. Tightly held shares, bound to rapidly rise on any positive news. Exciting Q3 ahead of us with newsflow on workover well and gas testing.
Why would listing on a basket case market like Argentina be positive? - Expands and improves liquidity - Increases profile of President Energy - Gives investors in Argentina an opportunity to be part of the story - capital returns back into Argentina The latter will be seen in a positive light by the Govt. Ensures stakeholders and management are aligned.
$56,940,000 / 1.5 (GBP/USD) = £37960000 $61,320,000 / 1.5 (GBP/USD) = £40880000 $66,430,000 / 1.5 (GBP/USD) = £44286666 $71,540,000 /1.5 (GBP/USD) = £47693333 Based on the last few releases, it seems to be clear to me that the company is continuing to drive costs down. This FY would enable PPC to significantly reduce net debt and end the year with a strong balance sheet, affording PPC the opportunity to fund acquisitions and further drills. Feel free to let me know if the math works out. ATB & DYOR
Current Group Production: ~ 2400 BOEPD With the ongoing 7 well workover programme at Puesto Flores and long-term gas test of three wells in Estancia Vieja (estimated to be completed by Mid June/July), PPC is in a strong position to achieve significant organic growth. It would be great to see the company surpass ~3000+ BOEPD by Q3/4. Netback: Approx $36 @$65 Brent With Brent currently at $75, I'm anticipating strong cash generation. Some back of the envelope maths indicates annual turnover of; $56,940,000 = 2400 BOEPD @ $65 $61,320,000 = 2400 BOEPD @ $70 $66,430,000 = 2800 BOEPD @ $65 (H1 - 2400 BOEPD & H2 - 3000 BOEPD) $71,540,000 = 2800 BOEPD @ $70
I appreciate your views/comments and I hope that you make your money back here. Problems in the years after IPO haven't helped the SP. But, imo there's a clear roadmap where this company is going and looks like a no brainer to me. If in 2-3 years, this company can churn £1.2m every year, the share price could be around 3p. Not attempting to ramp this (I do have a stake of around £10k) and do understand that for a company of this size there's risk in liquidity of running multiple projects and furthermore operating these constructions to time and cost which can be difficult. But experience of local market + robust demand in S/E - I feel like these should negate the risk to a certain extent? ATB
At this stage and for a company such as Traf, they provide little more than an update on the pipeline of project. Projects for FY 2017 are estimated to be sold in the window of now-before end of FY. Even if the company doesn't hit the Allenby forecast for profit and hits around £0.5m, sales for FY 18 will come in above £1.5m+. Market cap is £2m, looks like a no brainer unless houses can't be sold/a project goes over considerably over budget.
I think there could be some upsets down the road with the £/$ further deteriorating. Obviously, as pointed out the fall in EPS will be partially offset by the buybacks, but at the moment wary of the SP at the moment. Will continue to watch over the coming months, to see whether a new floor emerges. GLA
Was burnt when I bought in the high 30s+. Glad I sold out and cut my losses. 20% off at the start of the season imo shows that were in for some serious turbulence. Losing faith on this, would have to be 20-25p I imagine to get serious attention from buyers. GLA
No major news at the moment. Can't really see the reason for the slide today, but keeping an eye on it to top up another few tranches of Traf. Might be a while before we hit 3p, but personally can see this rapidly moving up on good news in March. Estimated profit for this year, puts it on a p/e of around 3-4.
For sure. This will race ahead some time or later. If it's maintaining EPS from last year, the buy back then will only grow EPS. BUT, there forecasting EPS growth going forward. So P/E of 6/7 at current share price. Obviously a very simplistic way of looking at it and doesn't consider the Brexit risk factor, but looks to be a great pick going forward.
100% agree with your analogy there, it's becoming fiercely competitive on both fronts wholesale and retail. I've always held that fresh management, new strategic direction and possibly a bit of cash injection to bolster the other brands would do wonders. But, difficult to see any of that happening. Purely speculative trading for a relatively small amount, bought at 40.3 with a sell limit of 42.
Seen these guys "reported" to have an interest in FCCN - Sunday Times. I don't personally believe them, purely because they've known to have it wrong on many instances in the past. Dalooks do you have any views on this being taken over by P/Es, Hedge Funds, T/A investors? Mark should be ousted one way or another IMO.
Not the results you'd want to see from a retailer, would have hoped for some more positive signs! Can't really see what is needed for Marks to leave, seems like a stubborn business man. Just bought some for a speculative bounce at 40.3.
Thanks Nige for the kind words. I'll keep a tab of your system, I will be rotating at some point into BWY. Recently, loaded up on Gold due to market volatility, US elections and the metal being bashed a bit. Hopefully October is a good month! ATB