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New market to follow.

This one just peace deal so no confusion over what constitutes a ceasefire. Still low percentage but good trend up today from low 20% to 36%.

One to keep an eye on overnight - FXPO will trade against this chart for sure.

And if you now look at half of Europe going to Washington tomorrow. That is going to ire Putin. This proposal by Trump seems dead in the water. They only have to water down one bit of it and Putin will walk.

Could be a volatile date tomorrow though. I’m sticking with 45p opening pice. Small chance we could test the lows of 41p from 2 to weeks ago and maybe get back towards 50p as news progresses during the day.

This is why I’ve been repeatedly directing people to the polymarket odds. Currently 33% chance of ceasefire but the end of the year.

So all the posturing by various political leaders is not going to result in anything meaningful until Zelensky gives ground. But it won’t even get to that point because EU leaders will reject it today.

I’d prefer to hear some optimism on the VAT issue in the short term. But that seems unlikely.

Yes unfortunately it as actually is worse than expected with Putin now not seeking a ceasefire, the problem with this is he will just drag to to make more and more gains.

A ceasefire by the end of 2026 is only 64% chance!

I had FXPO is a medium term investment with good potential but I will need to rethink this now

Afraid it is back to 45p Monday am.

Interesting.

Please everyone follow the polymarket ceasefire betting.

It is the best barometer you can get for which way this evening is going to go.

Currently 2% chance of ceasefire today

13% by end of August

40% chance by end of the year. There has been and increase from low 30% yesterday on this timeframe.

It has proved so accurate on world events and politics this year.

Given the timing of the press conference we will have a speculative day maybe a few moves in the afternoon but ultimately settle back around 52-53 going into the weekend.

I continue to watch the Polymarket chart.

But my prediction is a good summit but not a breakthrough but enough to give confidence it’s going to happen. Might be enough to get FXPO excited and up to 65p Monday 8am. Expect same pattern after that which we saw after the minerals deal in April and then drift through May.

What I’m interested in as whether Trump can hold any influence over the VAT issue which FXPO said they were involving international partners on.

This is the only chart that will matter Friday evening and through the weekend.

https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025?tid=1754937256502

Unfortunately two reasons. The first the reality that barring a miracle no ceasefire this week or any time soon.

And then the VAT issue which isn’t related to a ceasefire which is a short term and very big headwind for FXPO.

Long term I’m still optimistic but short term will see more pain and maybe retrace all the way back down to 40p and stay there. Below 48p is where more buying opportunities will be and we almost tested that on opening today.

Donbas ruled out by Zelensky causing share price big drop this morning

This looks disappointing

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/08/12/trump-putin-meet-one-on-one-alaska/

Confirms it’s just a listening exercise for Trump.

Polymarket odds on ceasefire in 2025 only at 35% chance now

Well this is an exciting thought but not going to be agreed on Friday.

But to answer your question I think the opening trade would be 80p.

Don’t disagree with the long term trend line but the gap was traded so not one that needs filling. Friday could be the big catalyst but markets tend to make moves in advance. So could see a 10% move either way on Thursday afternoon

On the flip side the bbc just published this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0e99yqv332o

After reading this I’m not optimistic at all. In fact it looks it will just drag on again. Unfortunately will probably see the 40s again before the 60s.

Trump just confirmed no Zelensky on Friday after market closed so will retrace the uptick from 3:30 on Friday to about 54.2 in the morning

Can expect a slow drift down to 50p again, probably 1-2p down each day Monday-Thursday then a wild day Friday as various ceasefire rumours will float around. Don’t think any technicals will be in play this week

Vance now saying that Zelensky meeting Putin won’t be productive. Going to be a volatile week. Not much progress possible above 60p without more news.

Definitely a positive if he is there but I’m sure Putin will cancel it from his side if that goes ahead. Let’s see.

Meeting is happening fast yes but it will be a very slow burn to any ceasefire. The best barometer for that is the polymarket odds which are still only around 33%. They went as high as 45% by the end of the year until Zelensky’s comments. Polymarket has been super accurate on major events so once it is over 70% it will be quite likely to happen. If you look at the graph for the year for this market it is following FXPO share price very closely.

Zelensky has killed it this morning. Won’t give up any territory