Member Info for Jps1982

Government buildings in Kiev hit so back to 45p. Impossible for 52p to hold tomorrow now.

Will be another test of 50p today. Can’t it hold

This isn’t a good step, we knew US troops were a no but this goes much further. Going to drag on.

Interesting analysis but I don’t think you have the right concept of a gap. A gap is where the price does not trade. Your gaps included trading at those prices (sticks on the candle). So that throws off your analysis I’m afraid.

With the attack on Kiev very surprised to be higher but as you say low volumes. Almost certain 2p in the red by lunchtime, another attempt at 60p not successful at earlier.

The opposite view which ‘may’ be supporting the price is that attacks like the one of Kiev will bring the end closer.

Terrible closing auction now closed at the lows of the day so they will follow through to tomorrow

60p does seem to be an area of significant resistance so a further catalyst is needed to avoid repeating the 60-45p slow downtrend of late May.

Next production report is 6th Oct so unless there is news on VAT before then it will be a case of waiting for any more progress towards peace talks. Iron ore prices are acting with some support at the moment. But not a lot.

Surprised to see us back near 55p so quickly with no good news. Question is where do we go next? Usual pattern of drifting back in the afternoon? I was expecting 48-49p this morning.

Very quiet on the news front in the last 12 hours or so apart from the drones continuing.

Either something is going on behind the scenes or it’s dead in the water.

More concerned about the selling volume today!

Guaranteed to fall at the open 2-3p, stock markets down over night and all 3 key poly markets on ceasefire, peace deal and Putin meeting Zelensky off a few points.

Key is do we have another day like Wednesday and fall all day, or can we bounce back through the afternoon?

I think rsi is ok right now. Overbought is above 70% so need to look for that. We also have an uptrend with higher lows but not higher highs yet. If we don’t take out 61p (can’t see that happening today) we could go back to 53-54 again by Friday.

The next target is to fill the gap in the low 60s in the end of May downtrend. Also closing above 59.2p today would be an important follow through from yesterday.

Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15012535/Moscow-REFUSES-commit-peace-talks.html

I think we will gap down until we hear from the Kremlin. Buying opportunity below 45p.

Yes very much so. However need to see the detail as Putin said he will reject any US troops in Ukraine which Trump didn’t rule out.

Polymarket has both ceasefire and peace deal at 35%. Very slight uptick this evening but no signs of a breakthrough. And on we go.

Little bit of buying into close. Betting markets on Polymarket not giving much confidence, peace deal 30% chance. Ceasefire 34% chance. Both of these are by the end of the year remember.

There will definitely be a much bigger move tomorrow than today.

Full deal (everything Trump has pushed for) we open 65p

Partial deal with security agreed but not territory we open 55p but then drift and off we go again.

No deal at all 45p or below.

These are my predictions. The middle being most likely unless Zelensky does something stupid and then talks collapse.

Any initial response from the Kremlin should be closely watched too.

A slew of negative headlines ahead of the talks has prompted non stop selling since mid- morning.

Things like the Russian attack, Starmer not agreeing with Trump and the EU pushing back on any territory swap suggests nothing tangible today, and any deal is going to be laughed at by Putin.

Going to be an interesting day. Pleased my 45p prediction was way off.

Europeans are talking about a ceasefire again and more sanctions so both polymarket markets have shifted again (29% peace deal vs 38% ceasefire).

I do think the more cooks the worse the chances of agreement.

All of this is going to happen after the close so wil definitely be a gap on open tomorrow one way or the other

Link is here

https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025?tid=1755451108264