Member Info for JP8891

Turned is a bit of a stretch! We've seen many false dawns before. I would like to see price turns back by economic data or supply issues.

We need Largo offline!.

Oh the irony if we sell off the assets and then the worm really turns!!

Had CC been in charge 3 years ago, we would be sailing this commodity price cycle on calm waters. Instead we're facing gale force winds with a massive fracture in the mast.

The difference between Fortune & CC is night and day. Whilst there is no point in crying over spilt milk and Fortune did have positives, he was a visionary.

Visionaries can sometimes take you right to the top - Elon musk I guess is the best example, however more often than not they fail.

Pragmatists - Which I would put CC in this category, see the wood for the trees, meticulously separate it and find value.

Had we had CC in charge 3 years ago, I believe our losses would be less, cashflow better and funding issues addressed from a stronger position.

Belco is a shining example - 'I'm not putting anymore in to belco, IDC need to stump up' It is this cold but pragmatic attitude that Fortune did not possess.

Flip a couple of coins because the odds are fimly stacked against us.

I fail to understand why there is no opec of the vanadium market. There aren't that many players, and you wouldn't need that many players to dictate price. Waiting for supply to be exceeded by demand is a bit of a mugs game. Just join together and dictate the supply!!. There is enough oil in the world to power all the worlds needs at 30 dollar a barrel - yet it sits at 90 dollars a barrel!!

To me is a very positive sign. Its not positive we need to do this. It is positive that clearly Craig has highlighted gaps in skill and is instantly addressing them.

Its refreshing to hear all the issues affecting the plants and how they are being dealt with.

The obvious negative numbers.

I hope Craig has gone with lower the numbers right down and then we will beat them.

Fortune was always struggling to hit numbers.

BIG, BIG difference in the communication in the RNS - What has failed, why it failed, how they are going to fix it / we have fixed it.

Certainly got his work out. Considering the Global economy is in a mire of stagnation. Probably recession for the construction indsutry. V prices aren't the end of the world.

Hopefully we will see a cost cutting programme in the interims and a headcount reduction. That would please the market.

The PV project is a disaster. I could teach a team to install the PV and have it installed quicker than Q4.

Placing 150 million shares at 30p would have been the hindsight move of the century.

A placing at this level would be fairly un stomachable!, though its not a totally negative option.

Always raise/borrow money when you don't need it!, never borrow when you do!.

Agreed squirty, notsure we will see it. I hope he replaces our finance lady, I really don't feel she is the right fit for a company turning over 150 Mill a year. Whenever she talks in the media it is like a rabbit in the headlights.

@Ben - It would certainly complete the puzzle. Africa has the most potential in creating mini grid set ups, it also has the most need. Especially if they are going to get off dirty genies in the poorer nations. PV is getting cheaper and cheaper. Couple that with Africas abundant sun and VRFB and bobs your uncle, problem solved.

Fortune imo is one of the good guys, well mannered, soft, probably a great boss from a having an easy life point of view. The kind of guy you want to lead an energy revolution, a new solution, a way do to do things differently, act with integrity etc... Perfect face and charisma for selling energy storage devices which is a 'nice' business.

What he is not, is brutal, cold, get this done now type of chap. This is what we need for the mine operation.

imo

Well he is leaving as CEO. His new role has been intimated, but position not confirmed. Which I am guessing hangs on Mustang.

This mud slinging is getting boring. Can we get back to the fact our CEO is leaving, exciting new CEO arriving and we have multiple news events on the horizon, the sphere of vanadium and related company activities could all be reaching final destinations, or the bit when the next chapter starts.

For those who listened carefully to the media, Fortune offered to take one of the interviewers on a tour in a months time at the planned to be operational mini grid. Scope to expand the mini grid was discussed. Imagine if we could be 50% reliant on PV energy at Vametco.

If VRFB do take off, with it Vanadium, coupled with BMN at 5000 T/FV a year.

We have Fortune to thank for the success it will bring the company and shareholders. For that if and when it happens I will raise a glass to Fortune!.

Of course all my ramblings relevance pail into insignificance, should Vanadium rise to 50 USD Kg/FV +.

Which of course ultimately relies on the success of VRFB.

So your investment case for BMN is as simple as will VRFB be as successful as everyone believes, because if so BMN is probably the best placed company in the world to benefit from it. We benefit from the increased value of V it will cause, coupled with the eletrolyte we will sell.

All problems generally have a solution, some we like - some we don't!!

The Solution to Vanchem is multi tiered (As everything is with this company!).

firstly Kiln 3 working to an effective rate of its capacity will certainly help, now Kiln 1 is out of action. Production cost is forecast at 498 - 517 ZAR - which would actually be a fall in production cost of circa 15%. Which would be the first fall in production cost for 4 years at Vanchem. If the exchange rate stays where it is we could see sub 28 USD a KG. Which would almost be 10 USD a KG cost saving on 22. which on say 1500 Tons would be 15 Million USD.

Secondly - load shedding - the key to hitting 5000 + MTV is load shedding, coupled with the agreement we have the local municipality holding up. Which looks like it is. '141 mtV produced during the month of March with 117 mtV as at 24 April, supported by improved operational stability' taken from the last update.

Thirdly - Not the solution we all want to hear, but at least we have it (Which I feel we don't appreciate or value enough). The expansion program. When the mine reviews were conducted getting to 8000 MTV a year was achieved by increasing Vanchem. Of the extra 2600-3000 extra capacity. Only 400T was found at Vametco and that was also the last stage. Whilst we don't want to talk about more debt, more time, more heart ache!, expanding to say stage 3 - 7600 MTV a year, would most likely make us the 2 largest player of Vanadium in the world, with some of the lowest production costs in the world.

Looking to the future I am now re-aligning my assesment of BMN as a pure Vanadium play. The BE distraction will be gone, with it probably Fortune, which I think will be a good thing.

Vametco has so far given us stable output, low cash cost 22 USD/KG. Which at current prices is more than profitable on a percentage basis. Vametco has to take on its siblings poor performance and share of extra operational running costs. If BMN was just Vametco We would have a tidy little mining company probably debt free.

But in some respects, a tidy little mining company is not what we wanted. We (the respective greedy you and I, who want its pound of flesh in added value) want a mining behemoth. So Fortune went out rescued Vanchem out of administration for the pricely sum of 70 ish Million dollars and here we are, in debt and struggling with margin!!

The Elephant in the room - Vanchem - Yes it produces a suite of products some of which are high value, but ultimatley that mine is not pulling its weight financially.

Q1 results for the last 4 years

Q1 23 – 605.5 Zar – 34.1 USD

Q1 22 – 587.7 Zar – 38.6 USD

Q1 21 – 459 Zar – 30.7 USD

Q1 20 – 284.3 Zar – 18.5 USD

Fairly horrific. Look at the Zar increase YOY, 22 to 23 levelling out (Which is positive), 23 USD helped by the Exchange rate. But still too high.

Now look at the 12 monthly 20%+ YOY Zar/ KG cost increase is just not good enough.

12M to 22 – 609 Zar – 37.2 USD

12M to 21 – 453 Zar – 30.6 USD

12M to 20 – 369.4 Zar – 25.7 USD

Having listened to the media put out, read between the lines and read the info provided. Here are my thoughts.

Craig - Big hitter - CFO De Beers for a few years. 20 plus years of operation experience at DB, 10 years plus corporate experience. I also read he handed his notice in twice and lured back by management (Which speaks volumes for his character and the value he added to DB).

Fortune - In hindsight, he probably isn't the man to run a mining company (which is what we are). He is a creative not an organ grinder. He grows something / creates it, deals, M & A, speaks lot of sense, entrepreneurial etc... But he doesn't do, day in day out tough operational running, he comes across as great guy (Which is not something we need when times are lean in the commodity cycle). We need someone no-nonsene. Which when you listen to Craig talk makes me think, this guy has been brought in as a turnaround expert.

Fortune I think will move to the BE/ Mustang company - where he will thrive and make that thrive, because that company needs, deals, M&A, Financing, youth energy etc..

Craig - Is going to bash some heads together, tell people they are not performing, make BMN more efficient, shout at supply chains etc.. (Well I hope).

Of the tin asset we spun off!!!.

Words fail me!

So your idiocy now translates across to football?.

I really hope you don't hold a position of any responsibility in the real world!!.

I am sure you could replicate Sakas first goal on your weak foot!.

Stevebt - I am intrigued as to the rates you talk about. can you give me examples? day rates for blockies, plasterers, leccy, plumber?.

BOE policy is to drive down asset prices over the medium term.

Persimmon and all the other housebuilders are lowering volume to counteract. BOE will just punish longer.

As I said a while back, cut prices 20% lean on supply chains and contractors and get cracking on.

Cinders - every now again you post sensible stuff like this - 'I'm happy to see the SP rising, but a lasting re-rate is only achievable through the words and actions of the company.'

Then in the same breath you say -' have no idea of the effect of the $ZAR on the bottom line in monetary terms'

I bet my bottom dollar, if the rand was at 10 to 1 - you would be harping on about the company loosing money!!

It is quite clear, if the rand is weak the bottom line is improved. Even if it is from -10 mill to -5 mill. It is still improved.

If the rand is below guidance it is not improved. You really do give with one hand and take with the other in the same post.