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Hi Tim,
Just wondered if you managed to sell your pretend shares in uog before they fell dramatically after your shameless ramping.
Also any chance of letting me know where your paymasters want you next, just I case I'm invested so I can bail before you arrive.
Thanks Formerfd if you reply.
BritR
I'm not disputing the fact that the cash balance was $400k or thereabouts at 31st dec but on 2nd Jan, only 2 days later,
" Payment of $0.8m from EGPC received on 2 Jan 22" this from finals.
"Cash balances as at 3 January 2022 were approx. $1.2m" this from Jan 2022 update.
So to me start of H1 cash balance at start of year was $ 1.2 m.
BritR
Imo starting H1 with $1.2m adding $3.8m for divestments if they did breakeven then why wasn't cash at end June $5m.
But don't think anyone can ignore the fact that H2 might be a lot worse.
Also still no word on where the remaining payment from Hisbiscus is, $1m.
Just also like to add that the Major shareholders list on the website has still not been updated for more than the 6 months, last updated 23rd may so was due on 23rd Nov, why!.
Rift it will be interesting to see what the end of year or start of year cash balance is and exactly what date they will say it's on.
In last years end of Jan update they qouted
"Cash balances as at 3 January 2022 were approx. $1.2m"
as this was imo better than end of year balance of $400k because they received $800k on 2nd Jan, looked better at time but looks like they lost that by end June.
Agree with BritR that it would be better to wait till update for clarity but disagree that egypt funds the company and especially now with the continued natural decline(15%+) in production and the fact that the recent wells are not commercial and won't add to production and as stated production in Nov had fallen tp 1027 boepd and will still be falling.
Another thing to consider is that uog only get 42.53% of that production, work that out and it isn't very good looking imo.
Sassy can't remember then working for free not doubting you but know other company directors deferred part of their salary at the time but they weren't slow in getting deferred salary back so in reality never lost out.
Treasures
I just think that with the failure to stem production decline because of the recent well failures, that uog rely on to maintain production, they must be using their cash balance.
I really don't know how they can cover their costs in 2023, remember they need $2m to progress Maria and will be spending on Jamaica, bp as well as opex for egypt which for 2022 was over $7m and more.
The last 4 wells won't pay for themselves.
Something has to give.
Of course your right about the website shareholding page it should have been updated.
I can see more tr1's being issued especially after the selling that seems to be going on just now.
End of Jan for update and news if not before.
rift your absolutely correct it was in the interims.
And If they do state at end of Jan that they have your prediction of $4-$5m cash then I will be amazed.
But just out if interest, as you obviously dyor, why do you think the h1 cash balance was equal to the money they received from the divestments and not a lot more, remember that they stated they had $1.2m in cash as of 2nd Jan in an rns similar to the $4.7m statement in Sept.
My point being why was the cash balance not $3.8m plus the starting $1.2m plus profits in h1.
Surely in h1 where production was a lot higher, oil price a lot higher, how did then end up with just the money from the divestments.
Sassy, last 4 drills
ASV-1X not producing
AJ-14 not producing
ASH-4 according to BL in an rns "contributing over 150 barrels to net production today"
but Jonathan Leather never committed to a figure so maybe it did produce 150 barrels
on the day in question but until JL states otherwise I would take BL statement
with a pinch of salt as it might be nowhere near that level today or even the day after
his remark, just like his cash balance statement on 27th Sept.
ASW-1x not producing.
Just for clarity ASW-1X is a definate duster but the others are being 'worked on' but as they haven't given any updates on them recently it seems like they might all be Dusters or not commercially viable imo.
rift I take it your reference to $4.7m cash balance for 23rd sep was from Bl stating that in a presentation which I don't think was backed up by P Dunne in the presentation. I'm not doubting it was that amount at 23rd Sept but think it might have been different by 1st Oct but that's just my opinion.
Imo uog are reliant on new wells coming onstream to counteract the decline in production to fund their capex and well as bp, Maria cpr etc.
I cannot see anyway that the cash balance would be $4 -$5m as you suggest because of the failure to sustain production and believe it will be a lot less.
Each well around $1m net to uog, how do they pay this because it won't be from production.
Sassy the big holders have been selling and there have been more than 2 failed drills.
Think people need to realise that egypt is not providing enough revenue to fund the company.
This is even more prevalent now that the last few wells are not producing and production is still declining.
They would have had a loss in h1 2022 if it wasn't for the money received from the divestments.
They haven't received the $1m final payment from hisbiscus that was due before end of 2022 and they might not get it as hisbiscus let the licence expire so money down the drain for them and maybe think that they have paid enough, who knows.
Everyone keeps saying that the wells will pay for themselves but if they don't produce then the cost will come from the cash balance which must be a lot less than the $3.8 m at end June.
Might be in for a shock when they update end of Jan regarding cash balance.
As for slowing the bp repayments, $220k per month, remember they already did this to reduce monthly payments and its obvious why they did it so can't see it happening again but they might have to do something.
The fact is they might have to raise cash to fund any well commitments in 2023 along with any expenditure on Maria if the cpr is positive, along with paying for the cpr in the first place.
According to uog outdated major shareholders list on their website Rowe's holding on 23rd May was 4.93% with 31,817,138 shares.
So tonight's tr1 rns states he had 4.4%, so must have sold some previously but didn't cross any threshold for reporting.
Looks like he's sold a total of around 10.5m shares or about 1/3rd of his holding.
Did Formerfd do his job!
Wonder if anyone else is offloading or has offloaded.
Keep an eye out for the update to the Major Shareholder's list and the date it actually gets updated compared to the date that appears on the website!
What a joke
"nothing has slipped, the holiday season just got in the way."
Seriously, surely this wasn't posted by uog themselves.
Guess that means no drilling if there's a bank holiday on the horizon and as for drilling during Easter we'll that's a massive no no.
Unbelievable.
They already tried to offload Maria to Quattro energy and that fell thru.
They haven't received the cpr yet and when they do it will be a while before any decision is taken on their next step and according to your link will be spending $2m on it this year.
Being realistic they don't have the funds for that so at this point Maria is valued at zero.
Also being realistic have they got the funds for this year's wells which obviously won't be funded from the last few non producers and existing production will still be declining.
They will do an update at end Jan which should clarify exactly how the Financials have panned out since June last year and until then anyone taking a punt is doing exactly that.
But be prepared for a fundraise if they intend to pursue Maria and pay for egypt, bp loan, salaries etc.
Thought this well was supposed to take c60 days to drill.
Only 28 days from spud rns, doesn't seem right, can only assume that maybe it spudded prior to 6th Dec. They did the same last year, not reporting a spud on time but after it had spudded.
These wells don't come cheap and it must cost uog around $800k each time if not more and as the last few are not contributing anything the cost must be coming out of the cash balance which must be dwindling at an alarming rate.
The bills need to be paid and if it wasn't for the money from the divestments received in 2022 then they would most probably be bust by now.
Lack of other news, as others have pointed out, is also disturbing.
The $1m that they should have received from Hisbiscus before end of 2022 hasn't been mentioned which doesn't bode well. Also the fact Hisbiscus let the Crown licence lapse, so money down the drain for them, they might not want to give uog any more.
I also agree that a capital raising could be on the cards, it will depend on the programme for this year but don't think uog are in a very good financial position to pay their share especially if they have any more Dusters.
Also noted that Formerfd was binned and all his previous posting history deleted.
He jumped over to the Harl bb but was quickly sussed out by a few on there and suddenly disappeared but it does look like he might have resurfaced under a new name as there is a new poster there that posts in the same fashion as fd did, think he was a paid ramper who did a job here for someone.
Another thing to look out for is the Major Shareholder's list on the uog website.
Might be a good idea to take a screenshot of it today because it hasn't been updated according to Aim regulations.
It's overdue, again..
Looks like game over for shareholders, the long game being played out to plan.
How can a company with maybe 3 employees all directors, that does absolutely nothing be unable to publish accounts!!,,
Spoils will go to anybody that is owed money , shareholders will get zilch, but has that been the plan since zeb was siphoned off?
No doubt zeb nickel will be crowning a new ceo in the not to distant future.
Any guesses who?
One guess each should be enough.
Game will restart on tsx , don't be a player.
Greg I'm certainly not obsessed with you and being factual here I never mentioned you on this thread but you referenced me in your opening post.
Understand that by making a remark like that makes you fell superior and maybe want to impress others then fine keep doing it, I don't care.
But putting our differences aside you should have a good look at production.
It has fallen from 1567 boepd in Q1 to probably today around 1000 boepd and remember that 2 wells came onstrean in 2022 adding around 600 boepd and so far 2 haven't and 1 still remains a bit of a mystery as to what it is producing, ash4.
So with the addition of aj 13 and asd 2 giving 600 boepd the production has still fallen from what should be around 2030 boepd to 1000 boepd.
Imo an update in Q1 2023 won't occur until result of ASW-1X is known but when it does pay careful attention to any reference to cash balance.
Such a lot now depends on this exploration well.
But as others have said there could always be news on Maria cpr, payment from hisbiscus but probably nothing on Jamaica but who knows.
But watch out for jam being spread on any news, dyor.
Larkin won't make a decision on Maria until they see the cpr.
But if they do decide to go ahead if I remember correctly the capex is about $70m so they won't go alone thats for sure and will probably need to raise equity of some sort.
More prevalent in next 3 months is the spudding and result of the new exploration well.
Not sure the drilling team they are using is up to the task as this will be an even more difficult well to drill and their record so far isn't good.
With production declining at a faster rate than I expected, h1 Ave 1552 boepd and now fy around 1300 boepd and currently daily around 1027 boepd people should be looking at revenue or lack of and the affect that will have on the cash balance.
Their still due $1m from hisbuscus and that was supposed to have been paid before now but theg do expect it before end of year but have been a bit quiet lately.
Imo without this payment the cash balance might be a lot lower at end of h2 because of the sharp decline in production In h2.
I've explained my reasoning for this previously but if anyone woukd like to discuss it in a respectfully manner I would like to hear their thoughts.
As ever dyor.