Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Stargate, your system for being able to know about the future sounds fantastic. Does it have a name?
I could have done with that type of guidance all those years ago, when I bought BAT shares at 270 pence. Since then, dividends have continued to rain down, I soon recovered my initial investment through shareholder returns and soon after age 50, told my employer that I had no need to work anymore.
Without having the use of your contraception, there were no bullish pivots, or any outside bars to assist me. Perhaps just as well, because a few drinks might not be conducive to good financial decision making. I just concluded that BAT's future business prospects, as a cash generative business, appeared to be excellent. Cheap product to produce, defensive qualities against economic downturns, very supportive 'loyal' customers and holding a dominant position in a diverse worldwide marketplace.
My view is that long-term investment, mostly involves common sense, patience and having the right temperament to stay calm during market crashes. Many seem to vastly overcomplicate basic commercial concepts. Provide goods or services, which are needed or wanted by customers and do it in a manner that is better than others.
Sorry about my previous post being in a mess.
This forum is so frustrating, because correction editing after posting does not appear to be possible.
Why the sentences begin without a capital letter I don't know. The place in Warwickshire has had the first three letters covered up. Perhaps the program here, thinks Gee Aye Yacht DON is a word that must never be used.
Anyway, hope the post is understandable.
berrin said:-🟢today 05:23 jon39, generally, in absolute terms the current market cap of just £1.38b is low. ferrari's got a market cap of eur 70b ....
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i had a few chuckles as i read your reply. will just comment on a few points.
any comparison of aml with ferrari is for dreamers. last year ferrari made a pre-tax profit of about €1.6 billion. they are a truly unique business, even to the extent of choosing which customers are allowed to buy what products.
aston martin have a longer motor sport history than ferrari, but of little help unfortunately.
refreshing the model line up has occurred regularly. the only time that dealers have had to limit customer orders was in 2003, after the v8 vantage concept was unveiled at the north america motor show. (you might be interested to know, that car was built in india.) production began in 2005 and ***don worked flat out for two years to fulfil all those orders. have a look at companies house, to see what profit resulted from that period of record production (remember at that time, ford were paying the development costs).
forget ebitda it is nonsense and often used by businesses trying to 'puff up' their figures.
your plans for selling the st athen site would get them into trouble. aml do not own that property.
i think mr stroll is probably unlikely to 'bow out'. the free use of the aston martin name until 2050, for his private f1 race team, requires regular aml board approval. that deal must be crucial to many of his new sponsors, some of whom have stated their delight, at being able to be associated with aston martin.
Berrin said: - Jon39, History is very important and to learn from it. Yet, I'd be more interested here in critical, contrarian views with concrete substance instead of the all too simple logic it's not going to work now because it didn't the 110 years before.
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If you are concerned about serious long-term investment (not share price gambling), then you will be studying the intrinsic value of businesses, to establish whether putting out money now, will produce a return of more money in the future. The best businesses can meet that requirement, because they can generate huge amounts of cash, without requiring more capital. If you prefer not to consider AMs long financial history, then just look at the since flotation period, or the even more recent Lawrence Stroll period. In all of those three periods, it happens to be exactly the same ie. there has been no cash generation (continue to spend more than they earn) and every time the cash almost runs out, further capital has to be raised. Although Mr. Stroll spins a growth story, the number of capital raises from shareholders under his watch and also the annual pre-tax losses, have been greater than ever before. I would be very pleased if AML shareholders continue handing over their money in every capital raise, because my car will need original AML parts and maintenance, but do study the financials in detail if you intend to make a serious investment.
Owners of the recent VH series Aston Martins have beautiful cars, all with more than adequate performance for road use. Take an example of one being worth £50,000, so you will understand why there is reduced interest in PX plus spending £150,000 for the latest entry model Aston Martin. Multiple repeat buyers were very important to AML just a few years ago, but the sports car sales numbers have reduced considerably. Probably this reduction involves the whole sports car market (except Ferrari). The AML SUV was supposed to be the financial saviour (as happened at Porsche), but sales have never reached the level that was originally planned. The recent product margin increases are supposed to ensure a profit on every car, but now having reached £200,000 with options, do you expect the number of new AM buyers will increase, or decrease?
You also need to be clear about the current debt refinancing. No extra money was raised for continuing commercial activities, so if the negative cash flow does continue, further fund raising (either from shareholders or an outside body) will be needed. The level of debt of course acts as a huge drain on resources, with future annual interest payments of £116.8m (that is with FX at 1.275). Over the 5 years term, that interest will total almost 50% of the amount borrowed.
I don't know how much you know about AML's finances, but perhaps some of the above fundamentals might be useful to you.
Playtowin said;
Price:Â 168.40
RE: Nice - RNS 🟢14 Mar 2024 15:13
Well I asked myself if Aston Martin was better off today than it was at the same time yesterday and before the RNS and the answer was yes, so I bought some for my ISA.
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I hope that your stocks and shares ISA also holds some consistant cash generative businesses, in addition to your gambling shares.
I very much enjoy their cars, but unfortunately the only cash that AML have generated since their IPO, has been about £1.5 billion provided to them by their shareholders. Positive cash flow has been a continuous problem for the Company, since 1913. Thank goodness that enthusiastic benefactors keep stepping forward, every time the cash runs out.
Vanquished said:- This forum is by far the most idiotic, immature forum I've ever witnessed. Most videogame forums have more coherent discussions.
I've currently got heavy losses but am slowly increasing my number of shares through tentative day-trading, lowering my break-even share price. To translate that for more easily bored readers: Ha ha! Sausages! Ha ha! If a miracle happened and Aston got an F1 win, what share price should I buy at on the Sunday to guarantee my order is successful? I assume 2 or 3 points below the frozen price at the time? I'm using Trading212. (The magic would probably run out by the afternoon, so I'd sell then...)
Yes, a ridiculous forum. The content is only very rarely helpful to investors
As for an F1 win by the team sponsored by Aston Martin Lagonda, well let's compare McLaren. Their last F1 win was in 2021. That hardly made any impression on their road car sales. At present their February UK new registrations totalled just 2 cars.
AML seems an odd choice of quoted business, for you to try to recoup losses. Their activities don't even produce any cash for shareholders, so it only remains a commercial business by having repeated capital raises. Have you tried the horses? Might have a better chance there.
Chesil365 said ... the DBX707 saw quite a large increase in sales last year, hence why they are discontinuing the lower powered DBX versions.
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That will have increased average profitability of each DBX, but remember that the total reported DBX sales in 2023 were 2,939 which was down 9% from the 3,219 sold in 2022.
Their future DBX target is 4,000, but unfortunately the figures seem to be going the wrong way at present.
Many DBX buyers are using PCP, partly to lock-in a fixed amount of depreciation, but of course PCP interest rates and monthly cost has risen considerably, which might be putting off some potential buyers.
NoahsArk said ----
Anyone can find link for Aston Martin Q&A transcripts? I have read this BB (posts) they mentioned there will be no C&R and No equity raise either... I believe it, but just want re read wording carefully before I make the decision in few days time.
Will this be separately RNS from today for refinancing?
Did Q&A mentioning when, how do refinancing?
Interest time ahead.
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'Interest time ahead' - There certainly will be much interest payable, if the debt refinancing is entirely loan notes.
If you are a short-term trader, gambling on the next buyers paying a highr price, then no need to read any further.
That activity is totally different from being an investor.
Making an investment decision, by relying upon what a director says, is not something a serious investor would ever do.
In fact especially in AML's case. Hopefully you remember the Chairman saying; "We do not need any more money at all. Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money." Just a short time later, £575 million was raised !
"This company will be cash-flow positive in 2023." Another unfulfilled remark.
Serious investors would not even be looking any perpetually loss making businesses. Aston Martin have launched some brilliant cars, but after every one, a greater amount of development money continues to be spent, than the profit being earned by the latest cars. Cash flow negative for as long as anyone can remember. Even in the Ford days that was the case, because Ford were paying all the development costs, so the few years of reported pre-tax profits were flattering.
If you just want a framed Aston Martin share certificate showing your name, to hang on the garage wall beside your Aston Martin, then that would be a good reason for you to buy a few AML shares.
What the CFO said in the Q&A, cannot be relied upon, until any refinancing has been negotiated, agreed and announced.
Hope that might be helpful.
Please remember that the new registration figures that I quoted, are UK only.
Therefore they don't tell us much about the overall position. The UK used to be the largest market for Aston Martin, but not now.
The figures might not even correspond with retail sales, because some of those newly registered cars could be for; staff, development testing, press fleet, dealer demonstrators, etc..
Yes, I knew not possible.
I have just entered those November figures in my records and noticed a couple of interesting points.
38 is the lowest November figure, since my monthly UK records began in 2011.
The highest number was in 2019; November = 125 and December= 281. Expect you remember that year. The 1x£1,000 + 24x £1,000 Vantage giveaway lease deals, which boosted the 2019 figures (first year as a PLC), but later resulted in a £35 million write down.
Vorlich001 said;
2023 CAPEX of £375 M expected to be the peak.
2024 Free Cash Flow Positive, along with refinancing debt to reduce interest.
Targeting positive FCF in Q4 2023 including initial cash payment to Lucid.
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The UK Aston Martin buyers ought to be helping more.
New Registrations
November 2023 = 38 (-47%)
November 2022 = 72
YTD 2023 = 876 (-10%)
YTD 2022 = 977
Hopefully the overseas sales are better.
[ Sorry for my double post. There does not seem to be an edit, or delete function on this forum. ]
Vorlich001 said;
2023 CAPEX of £375 M expected to be the peak.
2024 Free Cash Flow Positive, along with refinancing debt to reduce interest.
Targeting positive FCF in Q4 2023 including initial cash payment to Lucid.
The UK Aston Martin buyers ought to be helping more.
New Registrations
November 2023 = 38 (-47%)
November 2022 = 72
YTD 2023 = 876 (-10%)
YTD 2022 = 977
Hopefully the overseas sales are better.
Astonbroomes said:- I can’t believe it was true. Another refinancing in early 2024! And so now the reason for the slow decline from August highs becomes very clear - those on the inside knew very well and C3PO (as much as s/he annoys sometimes), was right even from the Lucid deal announcement months ago. As mentioned I sold out my 12,500 shares in the mid 300’s because I lost faith in Stroll’s regard for fellow shareholders, with his ‘we’re fully financed’ comments; It seems that view is further vindicated today with the planned cash raise. I think the company will survive tbh, the Saudis and Chinese for sure will snap up what’s left after Stroll sells up. What’s that? Yes, I said it! I believe Stroll is rumoured to sell the F1 team to the Saudis and it’s fully possible he could reduce his stake and handover Chairman duties in late 2024 or 2025 once he meets his revenue and EBITDA targets.
I really feel sorry for the smaller individual investors, because if it wasn’t clear before, it should be clear now. This is a company which needs ALOT of money to function and stay afloat. The debt is a serious anchor on the SP.. Only those with lots of disposable income should apply for AML shares, the 4 to 1 share offering in 2022 CR taught us that - I had to fork out 5 figures just to stay in the game. If I didn’t do that I would circa 88% loss right now. As a past investor in AML for 3.5 years, I wish you all the best of luck - Honestly.
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I don't post here very often, but when I do it is usually to pass on my knowledge of the AML business.
It puzzles me, that today posters finally realise that continually making losses, does requires more money to come from somewhere and in AMLs post IPO case, it has been shareholders who have paid.
Aston Martin's lack of money has been evident for 110 years, but many of you seem to be unaware of that.
1. Almost never reported a profit during 110 years.
2. Very obvious hype to artificially boost the company value for IPO. Even reported an isolated year of profit before the IPO.
3. Beware of any comments by insiders such as, we do not need money.
Some of the funniest posts are about predicting the future prospects of a business, by looking at past share price patterns.
(I cannot find a way of editing on this forum, so sorry if spelling etc. is wrong.)
Livestock said :- Maybe you could explain what you heard, or just gossip down the pub.
There have been DB12 delays, caused by faults in the the new interactive software.
Hopefully completely resolved, before customers receive their cars.
At £200,000, owners expect perfection.
Livestock said:- Can't see any news on safety recalls on DB12, only the order books are fully sold out for 2023.
There are no safety recalls.
Hush, hush, let's just say, one or two teething trouble delays.
You may have noticed, that at every Aston Martin new model launch since the 2018 Vantage, there has always been a statement, "All sold out".
Limited editions though are different. The 2022 V12 Vantages were all sold. It later became clear though that 'flippers' were amongst the buyers. Unfortunately for them, the days of a 'quick sale and easy money' were over. There have been a number of nominal mileage examples on sale for some time. One is now advertised for about £100,000 below what it probably cost. Ouch!
Vanquished said;
Share price is 219p now. What is going on?
I expect you will know.
For there to be a rising share price for any business, there needs to be increasing earnings (profits).
Last year the AML loss was £495m and during the past 5 years, the losses have totalled £1347·3 million.
The shareholders have been paying for all this, through rights issues and other capital raises.
In theory, any share price reflects future financial expectations.
Astonbroomes said;
'and if anything I’ve been very positive on AML when I was a shareholder.
But I’m not in this for the love of AML, I’m in it for my return on investment.'
Very funny. You should talk to InvestIndustrial.
Between 1913 and 2023, they are the only investor who has ever made any significant positive return and we know how they did it.
Even David Brown, an accomplished businessman, gave up putting more and more money in. Eventually he very responsibly paid off the £5 million debt and then sold the business for £1.
However, he did a magnificent job; created the beautiful DBR1, DB4, DB5; won the World Sports Car Championship and after many years of trying, won the Le Mans 24 Hours race outright in 1959.
Aston Martin is about wonderful cars, but regular profitability has never been achieved in their 120 years history.
The business has always been able to continue though, by the passion of people pumping money in. Since becoming a listed company, over £1·5 billion has been contributed to running costs by shareholders.
Pre-tax Loss last year was £495 million.
Carltt said;
Question:
Have AML made any profit?
If no, why invest?
There were a few pre-tax profitable years in the early 2000s, but those ended in 2010. Since then, the only year when profits were reported was 2017.
2017 was the year before the Initial Public Offering. Whether that was coincidental, who is to say, but it does no harm to present a company as having 'turned the corner', when a huge number of shares are about to be offered for sale. It worked, AML was valued on the first day of trading at £4.3 billion (don't ask what it was valued at eighteen months later). Since then there have been losses every year, but regular money raising from shareholders has kept the company going. Annual losses each year recently, have been in the hundreds of millions of Pounds. The most recent capital raise obtained £650 million.
The answer to your second question is, because the share buyers now think the company has 'turned the corner'.