The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/aim-i3e/i3-energy-shares/news/the-10-return-this-week-takes-i3-energys-loni3e-shareholders
Reasonable summary. Read to the end.
Perfect scenario for turnaround. Steer the ship dead ahead captain. Time to deploy afterburners.
WCSBCanuk.
I don't believe that's my quote.
I think there is a credibility issue with management is my best guess. SP has been spiralling down for sometime and not responding to oil price gains and falling far more than declines in oil price.
Repeat, push production up and we'll see a positive response. Have to follow a policy of drilling combination of oil and gas wells to freeze and unfreezing wells depending on which prices are rising and a mix that will give us max returns. Flatlining not an option imo. 3% rise will be eaten up by rising inflationery costs and wages as well. Cost rationalisation exercise needs to be undetaken including reviewing s fat salaries against peers...granting large options as well as salaries not a good combination either.
Indeed GGG, crazy price. Firmly lay it at the foot of management and people think their investment is losing value due to chat on a BB and some are almost singing management praises with the sp crashing from 30p to almost 11p. Disconnect from oil price rises seems inexplicable. Nothing to do with production declines and policy to flatline. I haven't read about other producers cutting production and downgrading so drastically. Mental to think you rely on oil and gas revenue and current prices you would not ramp production.
Stas20. GGG to be fair has openly said so.
Vmax, a delay in audit does not happen for the sake it of it. There was an issue which got held up until the funding was sorted and we had the audited financial statements released. There's no guesswork. Do you believe that posts on this BB make a blind difference to the sp?
Just beacuse someone questions stuff doesn't mean they have no investment?
I have not said that it' s a bad investment, am trying to ascertain if it's worth holding anymore. Given the situation. I'm entitled to air my view and if anyone can clarify my concerns great. Every investment has pros and cons and thats what I'm weighing up.
WCSBCANUK, this was my understanding of a reserves audit:
https://ryderscott.com/reserves-audit/
Not sure how the decline rate fits in to the above and is extrapolated? Maybe a measure between reserves assessed less produced and then reassessment of reserves and flow rate changes? Maybe someone can assist.
As for production yes, but it's still a substantial reduction from peak, (irrespective of capex spend adjustment) and the market has valued us downwards (beyond oil price falls). As growth has been hit. But my real question in given the capex spent and the growth achieved at a peak of 24,000, have we met forecasted internal expectations of production. I suspect no. But we are not privy to those internal targets and data sets. For me answers there will impact what we have acquired and possibly why we managed to acquire them relatively cheap, even allowing for the low oil price environment at the time.
Not saying that's the case but it will be reassuring to know.
Thanks for the reply Tony.
I'm trying to focus further into the why. As I have said multiple times, not as much worried about them missing targets due to the pullback in commodity pricing but I suspect that there is a bit more to it.
You have overpromising on dividends and unable to sustain which we all know. However what I'm concerned is that given the capex spend level, was the growth achieved high enough or matched expectation? If not what else changed it? Top it off not presenting full spud details could be masking other issues (I dont know) Suspect they expected higher production (only speculating). We dont have access to producing assets and their performance like one would do in an Audit and measure impairment and carrying value and also consult independent experts in the field.
My question expands, if they did not meet expectation, could BOD have taken pre-emptive measures, given the oil price was actually declining (but by how much no one could guess) Follow from that you have known loan commitments, hedging etc. Was serenity farm in correct thing especially with EOG and so on. You know my views on buybacks (not happened yet thankfully).
In addition, we are not privy to a lot of data. But the auditors clearly weren't happy until funding was sorted. So why did management let it get to that stage? What internal controls were deficient that management did not see it coming?
My thinking is it's too easy to blame the fall in prices.
Vernet and GGG, yes highly dependent on lows being in both on the oil and gas prices and therfore production too. If you expect higher prices, might be a goodtime to load up. Just once, I'd love a nice positive RNS catching the market offguard.
As for a bid not sure, but would be welcome at 25p plus, otherwise low ball.
Btw, you need to forget about the insults on 'CSE maths' because that's what makes you a bad poster. I have more qualifications than you can imagine including Finance and Audit related. Thank you.
Tony, I am not saying that it's not linked of course not. O&G is what I3E do. So strong correlation. But I have doubts and clearly did the market given the sell off since the 30p mark and when oil price was higher, is why the silence on drills, spuds, hence I now doubt the decline rates portrayed and contigencies factored ie downtime etc. But what I do expect now are more robust updates on drills and spuds and display good house keeping. My jury is out and am waiting. I have no intention to get into a negative discussion. Based on my business, if there is a change in the amount I can charge customers, that is fundamental to my business and I need to review internal costs and deploy resources to a strategy that will regenerate growth.
I'm not going to argue. But I do believe a lot of the malaise is how BoD have handled the situation including speed of counter measures.
Welcome back btw.
Absoulutely vernetles. BoD need to execute and update on drills, the previous modus operandi of keepin stum needs to change.
Therefore I will be disappointed if Buybacks are undertaken. Surely need to set a path to growth and funds deployed appropriately.
Flies in the face of people stating fundamentally nothing has changed. It's in black and white from the company and not an opinion based on understanding. So not what you were led to believe. Numbers banded about need to be in context.
The approved and contingent drilling programme in Canada is currently forecast to deliver 14 gross (8.5 net) oil focussed wells, down from the previously expected 23 (net 15.2) wells.
That's a signifcant decline forecasted too.
Going forward their 3% increase (20,000-21,000 boep guidance) over 2022 is actually a decline from peak production of around 24000.
The cut in capital prog will hurt I3E badly. Current price to 14p might be fair unless they ramp production.
It was a poor update.
· Given prevailing and forecast commodity pricing for 2023, i3 has adjusted its full-year 2023 capital and dividend programme.
o Approved capital programme of USD 25 million plus USD 6 million, subject to board approval, for a revised drilling programme targeting the Company's Clearwater acreage. The approved and contingent drilling programme in Canada is currently forecast to deliver 14 gross (8.5 net) oil focussed wells, down from the previously expected 23 (net 15.2) wells.
o i3 approved capital programme to deliver average annual production of 20,000 to 21,000 boepd, representing an increase of up to 3% over 2022 production.
o The Company's adjusted dividend programme is forecast to return £15.4 million in dividends during the first nine months of 2023.
Majid Shafiq, CEO of i3 Energy plc, commented:
"Q1 2023 was another busy quarter for i3 as we commenced our planned 2023 drilling programme in Canada, drilling production wells in Central Alberta, Wapiti and key Clearwater wells in our Dawson and Marten Creek acreage. Average production in Q1 resulted in another consecutive quarter of growth, dating back to Q2 2021, which is a testament to the quality of our asset base and operations staff. Since commencement of our Canadian operations, i3 has invested circa USD 80 million in drilling operations; grown production from zero to over 24,000 boepd and has returned £31.0 million in dividend payments to shareholders.
Given prevailing commodity prices and in line with our disciplined approach to capital allocation and prudent amortisation and management of the Company's debt, we have revised down our 2023 capital and dividend programme, protecting the value of the assets and providing us with the flexibility to ramp up operations should commodity prices improve. We remain confident that our asset base, with a 2PDP NPV10 per share of £0.36 and P+P NPV10 per share of £0.81 as at 1 January 2023, i3's total shareholder return model and business strategy which, subject to market conditions, optimises growth through drilling or alternatively M&A if commodity prices remain low, will allow us to continue to deliver strong returns to shareholders."
Production Update
Production in Q1 2023 averaged 22,773 boepd, comprised of 69.6 million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day ("mmcf/d"), 5,569 barrels per day ("bbl/d") of natural gas liquids ("NGLs"), 5,238 bbl/d of oil & condensate and 373 boepd of royalty interest production. The strong quarterly production represents an increase of approximately 24% over Q1.
Btw Tony, I dont know much about Logan but I think maestro was pointing out that Logan dont have debt not I3E. I stand to be corrected by Maestro.
Highlighting your post on debt in that it is virtually the same. However the otherside of the coin is that cash borrowed has reduced due to the old loans being serviced.
Production aspect.