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Liking the look of the micro trend on the 5min and 15min chart for ODX, especially with the current forming of a higher low. Could be the start of an uptrend or sideways consolidation. Just waiting for volume to rise, which could be kicking in as I type. I hold my hand up, I'm a long-term investor in ODX, but I also like to trade it to grow the pot and average down my share price (was 85p now 45p). Anyone else do T.A. on here - would appreciate your thoughts?!
TT is expected to be finished early in the New Year, which we interpreted as being in the first quarter. Colin King probably can't and/or won't advise a date, even an estimated one, as it would increase the pressure on the team if that date wasn't met for whatever reason. We'll only find out via a RNS when TT is complete.
It's perhaps favourable that we weren't given a date, because any delays and people would have been panicking, making far more assumptions than we already have and panic-selling.
I'm grateful for Colin's approach: he makes a plan and we see the RNS or tweets to confirm it's done or in progress. An example of this are the tweets showing the expansion that he detailed last year.
For the newbies on here I recommend following Omega Diagnostics on twitter, reading past ODX RNS' and reading the last 2 finnCap reports for Omega Diagnostics. Also searching "Omega Diagnostics" on Google, click News, click Tools and 'Sorted by Date' will give you various media articles to have a read through. Seeing is believing!
GLA.
The same chap attempted to de-ramp another company (as per his twitter account) in December last year. The general share price was around 1.22p on the 23rd December when he last tweeted about them. No tweets after that, but 8 days later the shares finished around 2.92p (finished at 2.3p today).
Oh dear ... that's my plane shot down and nosediving into the ground haha. Thanks for pointing it out Ffb and apologies for the confusion and false hope!!!
Ffb, it's on the bidstats site as per the link I included, i.e. https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W50/740688122.
Lateral Flow Test Kits
A Contract Award Notice by DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W50/740688122
Terrible grammar, sorry, i.e. "based ON" and "some or ALL value" - it's late and I've been interrupted many times, but you get the gist ;-)
Night all!
Great post TraderBuckie! My thoughts are the same.
Based on what I see when I consider things like the MCap to Revenue Ratios, P/S Ratios, PCR versus Rapid LFT (accuracy versus low cost, speed & practicality respectively), potential demand vs supply, etc, I'd consider myself absolutely crazy to sell given that I have no evidence to support the 2nd train of thought you mention.
I admit that I topped up today to bring my average down, mainly based: the current and projected Market Cap for this particular Diagnostics Industry company, the potential demand to provide an antigen or antibody test for a small percentage of the ~66.6 million people in the UK or ~7.6 billion people in the world, (repeated x times per person), and with the current limited supply of decent tests as it is.
Sadly, a lot of the panic sellers may buy in the future based on actual results (when some or value has been taken), unlike those like ourselves holding or buying now, based on the potential of Colin King's and Co's plan. If selling shares is based on feelings rather than evidence, then sadly a profit is unlikely to be made.
I'm following Warren Buffett's advice, being greedy buying low while others are being fearful, and I'll be fearful selling high when others are being greedy.
GLA.
Once TT is complete by early January (hopefully), the demand of the Antigen test is expected to be greater than the Antibody test until around April, at which point the production capacity should be around 2 million units per week (expansion currently going well) and a switch is expected to occur in line with vaccinations.
Either way, Omega Diagnostics are in a good position to produce in line with demand.
Nothing appears to have altered with regards to Colin King's strategy, so with that in mind it should be an onwards and upwards journey until April 2021 and beyond.
GLA. DYOR.
finnCap's Company Note for Omega Diagnostics, 22 June 2020
https://www.omegadiagnostics.com/Portals/0/02_%20Company%20Note%20-%2022%20June%202020.pdf
For those who aren't aware of the general plans and opportunities with Omega Diagnostics then this is a worthwhile read. It covers expansion, finances, investments, upscaling to meet the demands of the consortium, expected revenues for their various products and also how the company plans to make use of their increased production capacity once the demand for COVID-19 lateral flow tests drop, whenever that may be. Omega Diagnostics already have connections abroad for distributing their products, so it should come as no surprise once oversea sales/orders for the COVID-19 LFT's are announced. I'm not in a position to confirm what may have changed, but a quick comparison to the RNS' will reveal how things are generally going as planned.
Colin King (CEO) makes a reference to the finnCap Company Note in the ShareBuyer's Q&A with Colin on November 16th: https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/omega-diagnostics-qa-seize-significant-opportunity-ahead/.
Personally, for those in this for the long run I expect the Year End Accounts in March 2022 will be substantial. The link above will give you their expectations for March 2021. I'm heavily invested in ODX and currently plan to reduce my share mid-2021 (by what % I can't currently confirm).
With regards to the current SP: the supply has been consistently outstripping the demand so it has continued to fall since the high several weeks ago. Maintaining the balance is how the Market Maker's make money, because it attracts more activity. The ODX buying frenzy saw major sells (profits made for many) and then followed the normal negative effects that follow, i.e. overconfidence, denial, regret, fear, panic and despair. That fed the downward trend through selling outstripping demand. Like many, while others panicked I bought.
Hopefully we should now be in the 'hope' period, where we should see relief and optimism follow as the new bull market builds up, hopefully to a new high! There's plenty of potential positives on the horizon to end the year very strong, e.g. more orders, positive trading statements and company updates, MHRA approval, BoJo confirming to the nation that the Antigen Rapid LFT's are now sourced on home soil (our Xmas or New Year present). A positive TR1 or several would be nice!!! Some big weeks ahead!
Like many of you I now look forward to what should be a very good 6 months ahead and no doubt we'll see another buying frenzy to reverse the current trend and get the SP to where it should be (until the next cycle).
One thing that I would like to know, if any of you have any experience of this, please, is the calculation and relevance of a reasonable Cap-Rev Ratio (Market Capitalisation to Annual Revenue) for ODX, as I'd like to work it out to aid my Exit Strategy. As a minimum it simply interests me to expand my current limited k
It is. The sooner the better though, i.e. before Christmas as opposed to some time in January, though either way it would still make a great present, even if it is a belated one.
Just posting these sources of information for those who haven't seen them yet (some may have already been posted previously but no time to sift through).
Guidance
Target Product Profile: antibody tests to help determine if people have recent infection to SARS-CoV-2: Version 2
Updated 20 November 2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-tests-and-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-covid-19-work/target-product-profile-antibody-tests-to-help-determine-if-people-have-recent-infection-to-sars-cov-2-version-2
Click Testing on Left-Hand side and choose 'Antibody' further down. Note the daily and cumulative amount of antibody tests carried out
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Though not currently a popular podcast, this episode is only 2 days old and discusses ODX. Note the importance of the other ODX products, not just the AbC-19 rapid LFT. It serves as a good reminder that there is a lot going on now, both in the UK and worldwide and a lot to look forward to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypF6O4pO3Hk&t=1602s
The MSCI are adding Omega Diagnostic Group to their UK Index 30th November:
https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Nov20_MicroPublicList.pdf
More on MSCI and their data:
https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/bb1a8751-be89-4172-b732-853da686b9a6
Happy reading! Good Luck All!
By Matt Brooks
Monday, 23rd November 2020, 11:25 am
How long do Covid antibodies last? Why Boris Johnson is self isolating again - and if you can get coronavirus more than once.
https://www.scotsman.com/health/how-long-do-covid-antibodies-last-why-boris-johnson-self-isolating-again-and-if-you-can-get-coronavirus-more-once-3037619
Not sure if posted already today (I'm working so don't have to time to scroll through).
It would be negligent not to test vaccines in the long run, negligent not to find out who didn't test positive for antibodies following vaccination, and negligent not to constantly research, survey and monitor a virus that is more deadly and more contagious than the common flu. For this reason I'm grateful that Colin King and his team are putting full focus on production.
p.s. I am fully invested in ODX (buying in the range of 49p-£1.10) and know that the time for the antibody test will come (Pillar 3 onwards). Over 2.69 million antibody tests have been carried out in the UK so far, since June this year (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing)
My sincere advice Real112 is to back up your concerns with evidence, because selling on a whim will cause you to lose money in the long run so it's a good sign that holding shares isn't for you I'm sorry to say. I know that from personal experience when I was younger so I say it without prejudice.
In response to many of those with negative sentiments regarding ODX...
As far as I'm concerned I've heard nothing but planning, preparation and maximum production at Omega Diagnostics, ready for when the people of the UK and beyond are completely ready for this antibody test. This crucial test plays a vital part in the whole COVID-19 process. It's clear that the Government support the Consortium, yet I see a lot of people becoming impatient and wanting results now.
I really appreciate that a 41% drop following the Pfizer news (if memory serves correct) was certainly unexpected and a bad period for us with regards to the price, especially when it should have been a positive move up, but we are where we are and we're going to have to patient while we climb back up. We'll no doubt see the companies selling the Virus tests do well, but that's because it's their turn to be in full demand.
Colin and his team appear to be doing everything behind the scenes and there's no doubt that when we get more orders and a decent trading update that confidence will be restored for those who need it. A major investor would also be nice! There are clearly a lot of positive things to look forward to with ODX as they play their crucial part in the world and let's not also forget about Colin's remarks in the presentation with regards to awarding investors with a bit of a Christmas present (or New Year if a bit behind).
I understand the current price is causing doubt, but you just have to take a step back sometimes and remind yourself of what you already know. Like anything there are always risks but to me and many others the potential rewards far outweigh the risks. There are clearly some great opportunities for Omega Diagnostics to take advantage of and the current Market Cap is somewhat bizarre to say the least, especially compared to what it could be 3-6 months from now.
This is my only post of the evening (as I have work to do) so I'll finish by reminding you of what Warren Buffett said, that it is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
Good Luck All.
Only came across this last night and after checking the 'Antibody tests' radio button found that at least 2.5 million antibody tests have now been used in the UK. Not sure of any or full implications of this regarding ODX but at a glance I certainly see it as a positive for us. I'd like to think that our ABC-19 LFT was used for this but I have no source to confirm that. I also noted the current testing capacity of 121,100+ daily antibody testing, which obviously can be increased by the Government in the future where required.
It's my 1st post so forgive if old news. I try and keep up with the chat but there's a lot to read and one needs a break from it from time to time. Also very busy at work so forgive anything that I've missed.
Good Luck All