Member Info for JohnnySmiths

The NYMEX quote is the futures contract. It is a far more suitable reference to pricing because it is what majors are actually selling it for. So i am not really sure how i lost credibility?

I will be doing no such thing. The middle east tensions are nothing but spurrious. Brent was trading at 60$s with Russian oil embargo. Oil is going back down. And we both know that this farm out process will likely take another 4-5 months to complete. You can try to create fomo all you like, the sp is over done and will revert back down as the realisation of this process being no where close to done, finally sinks in for investors who re over emotional. i will sit tight.

The only person writing essays here, is you. Talk about 4 chapters, and absolutely nothing of substance. You've contradicted yourself numerous times, because in your initial post you said brent was at 80$s, look and read your own post. When I called you out on it, and that the price had slid from the 85$s it was at in the prior data room negotiations, you backtracked and are now saying 74. My data on the NYMEX: BZW00 is showing brent crude at 70.33$US. So I don't really nknow what you are readying. You also specifically said i created an account "Yesterday" (again, read your own post, do you have a pair of glasses, i suggest putting them on). And I corrected you in saying that wasn't the case and have been here for a few months now.

Absolutely nothing has changed in respects to the data that UOG have. It's the exact same data they have been schilling for the past 3 years! Why is it that only now PetroJam are being brought into the fold? UOG have had the license for over 5 years now. Where have PetrOJam been? They've had multiple chances to partner and have chosen not to. So the only reasonable basis is that they are stepping in to stop gap the lack of interest in a highly expensive drill program that has seen expenses rise 66.7% out of thin air?

How is a comparison to Challenger's prospective property not a comparison? Challenger's 4 Bahamas licenses are the closest proximity play to Walton Morrant, and not a single one of these have showed prospectivity. You seem intent to want to cherry pick a comparison to Guyana, that is 2500 kms away. Let that sink in. Very convenient for you. I'll also remind you that Exon et al drilled 11 wells in Guyana before striking. UOG are retaining a 20% interest for a SINGLE drill well. Again, let that sink in. Gaffney Clyne's analysis is overstated. If you were a part of the industry you would know this is par norm for the standard, and why majors always add a factor of safety to those numbers. There is nothing egoic about caution, especially in an industry where everyone is trying to sell you something. In UOG's case, for all of 3 years without a single bite? You would think at some point alarm bells would go off, but you are clearly paid by the company in order to make your posts, or have some interest to management, or to your own stock portfolio. C'est la vie.

"Let’s clear a few things up because this kind of long-winded post looks well-crafted, but when you actually break it down, it doesn’t hold up."

Don't you find it quite telling that a poster accuses you of a long winded response, and proceeds to write a book?

I will also dismiss those estimates by Clyne, because when you are in the industry, its comon knowledge that these firms who are paid by the incumbent project holders, tend to be favourable in respoects to their chance portionings. And so, we always cut these when making decisions. I'll also state that the poster that came in here and posted false information saying UOG would retain a 40% interest, was likely spreading rumours. And doing so with intent. If you look back 2 or 3 interviews, Larkin clearly states that UOG would be looking to recieve 20% free carry interest. That was at 30 million expenditure. What does that free carry go down to, now that expenditure has risen to 50 million??? I don't have an answer for you. It may very well still remain at 20%. But I know one thing for sure, it definitely is not 40%. Let's forget Namibia for a second, the closest basin being explored currently, is Challenger's. Have you been tracking that development, or lack of development? What does it forebode for WM?

I have explained my position here, I am long. But I know that this is a long shot, a very very long shot. I'm not going to address your accusations, but I've been very concise in detailing why i believe what i believe. You can call me whatever names you want, it doen't faze me in the least. Like I said, everything in life is probability.

Man Cavalier, you post a lot bro. I like reading your posts because you are very informed, but my head reels from having to scroll 3 pages just to get to yesterdays conversation.

@Tiger16 I am assuming you are Sasha? Judging by your post history you've been bullish the entire time on UOG, for wel lover the past 3 years they have been seeking a farm in major. Had you taken just 1 minute to look at my account, you would have realised that i did not create it "yesterday", I have been posting on here for quite a few months now. You've also made a number of other errors. Brent is not 80$s, it is currently trading at 70$s. In fact, late last year when Larkin was in talks that failed to bring in a major, brent was trading at up to 85$, significantly higher than where we are now. I'll also remind you, that the price for exploration was listed at 30 million for the drill well. Today, that price has gone to 50 million dollars. The reasoning then stands, if Larkin was incapable of luring an investor into UOG at 30 million drill and 85$ brent, why would he then be able to do so at 50 million drill and 70$ brent. And brent has only recently seen an uptick, not just because of middle east tensions, but also because of the Canadian wildfires. Here, we've had to evacuate and put on hold all of our oil operations because of forest fires. OPEC are now also increasing supply. The US have finally opened up the NW passage for drilling, which will prove very lucrative to majors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/31/business/opec-plus-oil-production.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/business/energy-environment/oil-companies-production-prices-opec.html

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-rebounds-after-opec-sticks-same-output-hike-july-vs-june-2025-06-01/

And these are the latest stats directly from Rho motion for EV adoption.

The number of electric vehicles sold globally in May 2025 was 1.6 million, with 7.2 million sold ytd. The EV market grew by 24% in May 2025 compared to May 2024, and by 8% compared to April 2025. The EV market in Europe has grown by 27% in the first five months of the year, reaching 1.6 million units sold. Countries that have been slower to electrify are catching up, including Spain with 72% ytd growth and Italy with 58% growth this year. The North American EV market has grown by 3% ytd. Growth has been held back by the Canadian market falling by ~20% ytd, due to the pausing of EV subsidies earlier this year. China's EV sales reached over one million units in a month for the first time this year, as the country's OEMs ramp up BEV and PHEV exports to Europe.

? I think this post was directed at me, so i'll just address it.You've clearly made a mistake in listing the user Faaz, understandable.

What were the percent probabilities associated with a find out in Colibri? I believe Gaffney Cline had it at 19%. I believe they are being highly generous, seeing as they are paid to be.

Oil prices even with the recent rise, are still about 10$s below pricing the year prior, when UOG curtailed its talks because no major wanted to sign on to their exploration license. Middle East tensions will simmer and are a constant, I don't think it affects much tbh. US Shale production and now Coal reengagement, along with rise in EV's will dampen oil demand going forward. I'm not quite so certain majors are coming to the fore, but let's see. Guyana's find was in 2015. Majors have had years of access to UOG's data room, and still no bite. The reason they are not biting, is likely because that data doesn't amount to much, and is the main reason why PetroJam have been brough into the fold. Where was PetroJam for the past 3 years? Why now? Is it because they are very well aware that the data isn't sound enough to attract a major?

I'll agree with you that farm outs take time, and we could see a partner brought on later this year. But even with a partner, that in no way is indicative of there being a find that is in any way economical.

This was a recent article on Namibian exploration, where Shell inspite of drilling 2 of 3 wells that showed carbonate, found these uneconomical. I believe that this is what Jamaican exploration will look like, except with Namibia who have been seeing 80% strike rates, Jamaican strike rates remain at 0%. If Namibian oil wells are proving uneconomical to drill, one would then question the viability of Jamaican wells even more, I suppose. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-oil-majors-drifting-away-from-namibia-discoveries-bhandari-xuoif

• Why join the board yesterday and instantly push a narrative that discourages retail from holding through newsflow?

? If you are going to write such a long winded post, at least get your facts str8.

If a farm out lands, its not going to be on the terms that an individual here posted with uog retaining a 40% interest. If uog couldn't land a 20% interest with a 30 million exploration injection needed, how exactly do you expect them to land a 40% interest with a 50 million injection needed? I am curious.

But it's been like this on this forum for some time now. First there posters saying that the partner would happen 'next week', and they tried to pump the stock. That was almost 3 months ago now. And now there is a poster making up false numbers to pump the stock again.

Everything in life is probability.

Faaz i am long, not many shares, i sold most with the recent rise. The info that was posted here was highly misleading.

But it is ALL prospective, and the chance of that oil being found are truly truly truly slim. if there was no interested at 30 millio expenditure why would there be at 50 million. Unsophiticated, were you not in contact with the ceo? can you please share what he said? It seems like Petro Jam are being tasked with filling the void, likely because they are having trouble actually finding a partner who would want to take the risks on the package.

It was just pumped on the back of rumours, seems typical with this company and the shareholders here.

There was a user that was saying that UOG would retain a 40% interest. This is a categorical lie! And the person that started this lie should be held accountable by the regulatory agencies for posting fake news. Their cost of drilling just went up 66.7% from 30 million to 50 million. I'm curious to see what majors come through with those kind of outlay. If they weren't willing to do a deal at 30 million spend, why would they do so at 50 million? Is that why Petro Jam are now being asked to fill the void, that would be my line of thinking.

The company have no oil, none that has been verified. I will remind you.

Just more lies with this company.

? Which 2 majors are you talking about? Exon wouln't go anywhere near this. Why is that?? What are Exon seeing here that makes them give this a wide berth? Why has no one attached to the license in 3 years?

Thats if they can even get a single partner in. It has been 3 years and not a single partner has signed on. If they didn't sign on when the drilling costs were 30 million, and brent price was at 90$, please explain to me why they would sign now when drilling costs are 50 million, and brent is 60$?

it's been the same story with Larkin now for ages. Majors won't touch this, there are reports of first hand conversations with heads of management at majors and each one has declined. Same story, same result. O&Gs across the board are scaling back exploration spend, that leaves chances here slim to none.

There is nothing "winner" about this stock. That interview was terrible. The drill program went from 30 mil to 50 mil, a 66.7% increase in cost basis, making it even more unlikely that any major would step in here.

It is moving on air. 3 years they have not found a partner, and their drill program costs just ballooned in an environment where brent is hitting market lows and OPEC are pushing production rates higher. Nothing about these markets makes any sense to me anymore.

Perspective is lost when you choose not to see through the haze of your own delussions.

I'm trying not to be, but the move isn't sustainable, and will bleed back down is the problem. The company need to follow through on their broken promises, and so far i am not optimistic is all.but hey, nice rise,just not sustainable is all. these are just pointless mo

There is no reason. AT ALL. All it is is investors running up the stock as usual and posting fake stuff the same way they have been for years now. Larkin has delivered absolutely nothing except for a more expensive drill program. If they couldn't get partners at a 30 million drill program when brent was at 90$ a barrel, how are they going to entice someone with pockets to the tune of 50 million drill program when brent is at 60$ and electrification is picking up steam? Its just fake news as usual.

EV adoption is 25-50% YoY depending on quarter comparisons. There are H2 mandates now already developed with the 45V and 45Q IRA deals, Australia and the EU have adopted these with the EU planning on 20 mtpa production. Larkin needs to deliver now, and stop talking. Because that is all he has done so far, is just talk and do nothing really. And then shareholders get all giddy and make things up. It is the norm here.

The world is changing.

If UOG were truly going to bring in a major with pockets to the tune of 50 million plus, why haven't they already? I don't think they will find a partner, but let's see.

Where is the JV? Or more fake news as usual by the shareholders, who like to make things up?

Did you notice the price of the drill program went from 30 million to 50 million??? Crude is a shade above 60$. Dicey dicey, if they can bring someone in. Can they bring someone in, or are we just hearing more stories the way we have been for 3 years now?

https://www.gfmreview.com/commodities/oil-pullback-why-energy-giants-are-scaling-back-despite-strong-demand-signals

You guys are going to lose your shirts on this! 3 years now, and United have not secured a partner for that drilling. The data is sh*t. Look at the price of Brent currently, it's hovering slightly over 60 $ per barrel. OPEC just increased production. They are forecasting 50$ bbl oil, no major is going to step up and run exploration risk in a market like this. This is just a pump job. The chances of Colibri holding oil and scant at best. EV market is picking up steam, I think they are growing 50% cagr now. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/barclays-cuts-2025-2026-brent-crude-forecast-as-opec-accelerates-output-hikes/ar-AA1Ea4Cx

You guys are about to lose your shirts. Let me tell you whats going to happen, 6-7 months from now you will still be sitting here believing the nonsense the ceo spews, and no deal will have materialised. In the mean time you will just keep getting hit with more and more dilution. It's just the way the story goes, and it will be the same story in 2026, and then 2027, until the market finally just gives up and stops funding the company. This is my prediction at least, lets see.

Yes, I also believe any partner coming in and stumping for 30 mil will likely claim 80% of the interest going forward, leaving United with a cursory 20% or thereabouts. I really don't know who or if anyone will partner with them. I do not force anyone to believe my opinion, but unlike most on here, I do like to deal in "facts", which most on here find hard. They have not found a partner in 3 years, CEV took 7-8 months and found one in Uruguay, which is akin to the Namibian basin which has been seeing 80% drill success. When you compare that to Jamaican drill successes which stand at 0%, it is telling. But whoever chooses to come through, will be highly aware of this, and is probably why they are not seeing much traction. If you read the link I posted below, JPM and other energy consultants are projecting 40$ bbl prices, this will stunt exploration in the future, making it even harder to attract a partner. I keep my fingers crossed, but you'll have to excuse me for not buying into the hype train here. The risk here is off the charts.

Https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-sachs-trims-oil-price-forecast-on-higher-opec-supply-assumption-from-july-3992042

Full Metal Stapler, don't listen to the hype, this board is full of nonsense! They have been looking for a partner for 3 years now. Chances of success on Colibri are like 10-15% and that's being generous. 16-17p is technical resistence, this will take months to close a deal, its just all pumper hype is all.

i am really trying to enjoy it, believe me, but this board just ****es me off. they constantly make things up and post false information. i tried to read the board this morning, and there's some idiot making like 15 posts, of the exact same post! like guy, are you normal?

be normal!