Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Don't believe all you read . received email from Simply wall street" saying BIRG shareholding being substantially diluted.
emailed BOI Investor relations who confirm other s/h in touch about this Investor relations already in touch SWS who apologise for the error.
I expect investor relations will also be in touch with the Donkey concerning misrepresentation.
Doomster,
surely you are not surprised. You came on board, lavishing your praise on BIRG and, as posted,that was the death knell of BIRG.
you are well aware of your negative correlation with the market.when you are up the market gone in direct opposite direction.
Observe,
also only fair to post that going from 1.1bn to 1.9bn PBT in 12 months is not exactly standing still. If the 23 figures incorporated the identical 22 bad debt reserve provision the 23 PBT figure just about doubled the 22 figure.
Observe
No doubt but growth is essential for SP to flourish. However a 10% share buy back will definitely make a difference and will compensate to some extent that growth that BIRG may lack. Ryanair prove this.
Should BIRG maintain a div of 60c plus ,and I see no reason why they cannot do so, then this will be in big demand from a dividend pay out alone - at €10 it is a 6% yield and nobody will walk away from this when the alternative is 1.75% with plenty of T & C attached.
UK Banks not setting the world on fire for a long time . Barclays p/e ratio is 6.02, Lloyds is 6.09 and BIRG is 5.49 assuming SP of 8.22.
Trudemill,
an interesting point which may come into play later in the year is that a buy back of 10% of the share issue was approved at last AGM ( 108mill shares approx ) with buy back to be completed by mid december 2024. €520million of this buy back commenced yesterday (453,000) and such a rate of buy back will ensure this is completed in about 135 trading days or sometime in august. Will the balance of the approved buy back continue post 2024H1 results through to mid december which would result in s/holding of c 950million.
As regards future dividends BIRG have confirmed a max payout ratio of 40% which they met this year - PAT =1601million.
You appear to be equating buy back with div. A max pay out ratio of 40% will limit divs to 60/70c for near term future unless profits take off.70c div = PAT of 1.755Bn = 2.2Bn PBT.
The share buy back must affect the SP as there are less shares in issue so sp must rise. 3 kids get more out of same inheritance than 4 !
I agree SP is undervalued on fundamentals . SP was up to €11 in February/march 2023 when annual profits of 1.1Bn announced - now 1.9Bn announced. If AIB results positive on wed should see a bounce. If not ..
Agree that SP will just roll along over the summer after div pay out.
It was confirmed yesterday that 634mill being allocated as div payout in june. As this is a specific amount could it mean that this amount might be payable to say 30 million less shareholders (1.028bn or 61.6c per share. I do not see the SP falling by the full div amount ex div. You probably find the sp appreciates in the run up to the ex div date to reflect the div payment in following few weeks.
On looking at yesterday's rns it mentions approval given to buy back 10% of capital at last year's agm. interesting to see what today's buy back in tomorrow's rns.
Ryanair deliver results in coming weeks and profit expected in 1.85/1.95 Bn - identical to BIRG but valued at close to 21 Billion !
Then Shen,
do you think that BIRG will apply the dividend savings in additional buy back. Last year their buy back averaged about 450,000 daily and with 60 odd trading days to the agm you could be looking at 30mill div savings.
Doomster,
good to see the sp recovery has commenced. As regards the major boost the goodbody comments related to a 1Bn share buy back - only half that figure is being bought back - MAJOR difference.
Find it amusing that you scoff at a 60c dividend. Believe it or not but this almost equates to DOUBLE the SP of your beloved Boohoo.
Which event do you believe will arrive first - BIRG at €10 or Boohoo at 60p ? Which would you put your money on. OR Ryanair at €25 or Boohoo at 60p ? YOU know where the smart money will go and it will not be Boohoo.
Doomster,
Dont worry about BIRG. The cream always rises to the top, which you most certainly cannot say about the Boo.
Continue to live in fantasy land as you are totally divorced from reality.
much easier to recover 9% than 75% especially with a quality share - not forgetting the 60c dividend in 3 months time and 5% of the shareholding removed from the table. I am sure you will enjoy BIRG's recovery. could be worth putting your hand in your pocket.
Doomster,
speaking of %ages, you are very quiet on performance of your beloved Boo. How come they are down over 40% over last 12 months. Just imagine they have to appreciate 75% to reach your predicted 60p of 12 months ago.
Ar regards Ryanair going sideways - they have blown through their previous high to become the largest capitalised airline in the world - surpassing the COMBINED values of IAG-E JET-A France-Lufhtansa.
When will you ever LEARN.
Dont worry about BIRG - They are still up over 600% when you condemned them to the graveyard and will reach the 850% level again, Seeing you are writing them off again , nothing is more certain. Have to express my appreciation for honouring my request to do so. Just bear in mind the market and yourself enjoy a 100% negative correlation.
Donkey,
If these hit 7.50 tomorrow even the donkeys in the stable would be mad not to buy-with a yield of 8%.
You should also bear in mind that PBT figures are easily manipulated for different purposes. If BIRG adopted the same reserve figure for 2023 as for 2022 their PBT figure would be 2.16 Billion and a very different tune would be sung today. Are they attempting to lighten "political" pressure ?
See the Doomster is in full voice today but the IQ aint improving. Now considers Ryanair a sideways company , very conveniently forgetting that they are the largest Airline in the world by market capitalisation with a market value in excess of the combined values of IAG-E JET-Air France-Lufthansa - all from a company started on greenfield site some 35 years ago. Once an idiot ,always an idiot.
Observe
you could say the loan book was static. If the perception going forward is negative growth would do no good for sp.
The s/holding dropping below 1 bill could serve to drive the sp . the current div yield of 7.5% with 8 sp is unheard of for BIRG and with falling interest rates would push investors to invest - 2% deposit rates at a push at the moment.
SP of 6= 10% yield ; sp of 10= 6% yield.. yield just over 2% for months in 2023.
I believe market is over reacting but AIB results will be closely examined.
PBT figure affected by additional credit impairment charge of 216million in 2023 v 2022.some positives to be taken from results ;
-cost to income ratio down to 42% -was well above this .
-share buy backs of 516mill should bring shareholding to 1 billion or slightly less. This will likely mean less emphasis placed on buy backs in the future as s/h historically around 1 billion.more future distribution by divs.
- Report states interim div being reintroduced in 2024, which imo means emphasis being put on future div distribution.
-Does div of 60c represent the floor for future divs dependent on coming profit figures.
AIB 's figures next week will be examined very closely.
-
Doomster,
as has been repeatedly proved on these boards you are without question the greatest muppet to appear on any LSE Board with zero credibility.
How often have I set out your glorious failures on your recommendations and your rejections heading for the stratosphere. You make a point about Rolls Royce but what about YOUR SPECTACULAR FAILURES. YOUR REJECTION OF BIRG who proceed to post a 850% gain in little over 3 years and AIB posting 500% gain. These in the comparitively risk free Finance area. Your Airline recommendations would be bankrupt with government bail outs and Rights Issues while your rejection, RYANAIR, ids now officially the No 1 Airline IN THE WORLD by way of Market Capitalisation.
You are in such Zombie land you are dreaming of your beloved Boohoo rising from the ashes. I have well documented already your postings on Boohoo which would be a severe embarrassment even to a drunkard. Must admit having made a few bob on the boo -3500 last year and 1500 just recently having got out at 39p. so 5 grand ok for a 10grand investment in and out.
Doomster, I hate to say it but ,investment wise, you are a total and abject FAILURE.
As regards Greatland I have no worries there. Study your Lassonde Curve and all will be revealed. Patience is a much more important commodity than Bottle when it comes to investment but you would know nothing about that.
You can always portray your FTSE DOGS as your pride and joy.
Pleased to see Kingspan also heading for the stratosphere having recently burst through the 80s.
GG,
the share buy back of 1 Bn, if true , should be a major boost to the sp as s/holding in place at end of buy back should be c 940/950 mill as opposed to the current 1.056Bn , reduction of 10% in share issue to result in 10% plus to sp. No of shares being removed from the table will be 8 times greater than last year which should result in shares being held more tightly ( fewer being traded) which should result in upward pressure on the SP.
Assuming buy back figure is 1 Bn my read is that c 800/825million of this represents the return of the surplus capital long talked about. This equates to less than 80c per share ( if offered by way of div or cash) . Alternative is by way of share buy back which is being commented on by goodbody and which should result in SP increasing by at least 10% to reflect reduced no of shares in issue. 10% of current sp is 86c so pretty much even steven.
In medium term I think the buy back to be more beneficial than cash return .