Member Info for JohnBull65

Closing SP of 7.4p with shares in issue of, say, 5bn gives current MC of £370m. Based on our 30% share of HAV’s current 6.5m oz AU equiv - say 2m oz AU - that would value each oz at just £185 net. With anticipated AISC at relatively modest levels and even discounting for delay in formal DTM, this seems like an unrealistic level of discounting to true value…which can only mean that once DTM is confirmed and upgraded MRE is released, we should see a sizeable re-rate…hopefully positive sentiment will return in coming weeks/months to cement those gains.

SP spread very tight for the last hour - anything 1.56 and above will be a buy, not a sell as reported on LSE, indicating ongoing appetite at this level unsurprisingly.

Kn0wles - how unlucky, they forgot to give you the discount code!?!

Think the level of debt was a key factor in the SP drop so only reasonable to expect a plan that involves debt reduction to lead to the opposite? IMO this company is well under-valued and I expect SP to continue to appreciate.

Or...that he has a huge amount of shares so that the sale of a minute element is of no real consequence irrespective of the share price...

Tygra - the RNS did confirm that it is Angus that has that many warrants outstanding as it is Angus that is referred to as the "company" within the RNS, not Aleph; that is referred to as "Aleph".

Eatstocks - whilst there may be some merit in what you are saying regarding the improved ability of the company to forecast future positions, the lack of current liquidity is emphasised by the fact that they are outside of normal payment terms with suppliers - which rather contradicts the main thrust of your argument...

To add to the fact that this is not a “new problem”, RNS makes it clear that they are “outside normal payment terms” with trade creditors - clearly something that will have been occurring over a number of weeks IMO, indicative of cash shortages. Very poor situation for existing shareholders which appears to have been caused, once again, by mismanagement by BOD (IMO).

Cut my losses today - great asset but never-ending procession of negative issues which, combined with lack of clarity on way forward as per latest RNS, made this too difficult a hold....unfortunately

JBarnum - not the case at all - there is a world of difference between a term sheet and one that is credit approved - the former can essentially be issued as a business development ploy whilst the latter constitutes an agreement in principle, subject of course to satisfaction of the terms therein.

Chester - IMO the decline by NCM of the option has not fundamentally changed the level of funding (via placing and/or debt finance) required to meet ongoing development costs given how the majority of the option fee would have been used to repay the NCM loan - so, this situation to a smaller or greater extent was always likely to occur.
One thing raised by many posters relates to “shorters closing out” which will lead to SP moving up - I would suspect that vast majority of shorters will be eligible for the bookbuild so will purchase their shares during that process at the placing price of 8.2p - in which case, other than the positive impact of a (potential) cessation of the previous shorting activity, not sure there will be any material impact on SP from this aspect - but welcome any thoughts that might be more comforting for LTH’s!!

Will be very interesting to see the level of II subscription to the bookbuild - if the majority opinion on here is correct (that HAV is a generational find) then surely at the placing price of 8.2p there should be significant demand - increasing dilution but likely reducing ultimate amount of bank funding required...

ha ha - is this a ****take - read the RNS.

MassiveRay - and that is the sickener for me - PI's hammered for months and then the shorters get "lucky" with a favourably priced placing to let them buy back...

Sandgrounded - unless as a condition for any bank finance I would suspect that any monies raised/borrowed will be used to provide liquidity rather than repay existing debt (NCM Loan) - that doesn't need to be repaid prior to production in any event.

Not unreasonable that a Bank would ask the borrower to put some of their own money in towards the remaining development costs in order to release bank funding - which if RNS is to be believed, appears to be agreed "in principle" via credit approved term sheets.

No - not Taken the 5% as at date of this report. How anyone can suggest that the 5% is not worth 60m must be deluded - or have a different agenda to promote.

It is unthinkable that NCM will NOT take up their option - if they allowed this to lapse then from the wording of the RNS's (appreciate that some of the finer, technical detail of the various agreements may not be included) presumably the 5% would remain with GGP and NCM would receive nothing, simply retaining their 70% but not having to use US$60m from their coffers - albeit that would be an excellent result for GGP....

"Global company in the making, cease every opportunity, no good sitting on one project at a time. AIM high. ATB."
Ha ha - freudian slip I am sure in your use of the word "cease" instead of "seize" but absolutely true!!!

The share that goes down when the only trades seemingly are buys…….