Member Info for JoeSchmoe

Just bought a few more at 635p, mainly with dividends in mind. Also noticed that Phoenix pushed hard at the end of last year for Solvency II reforms (https://www.ft.com/content/8d4cddf2-8044-4e8a-a36e-7df2346a54cc) and the government now seems committed to this (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-slashes-red-tape-through-bold-reforms-to-insurance-sector-regulation). Now Phoenix has its wish, what will it do with the freed-up cash? It looks like some will contribute to Boris's environmental legacy, which I'm not convinced by personally, but I'm guessing that there must be a lot more cash besides that.

RNS this morning....

Just announces that it has completed the sale of a portfolio of LTM to Rothesay, with a current outstanding loan balance of £537m and an IFRS value as at 31 December 2021 of £772m. The LTM assets being sold form part of the investments used to back the insurance liabilities of the Group. The consideration is c£687m, payable in cash.

The proceeds received will be reinvested in a mixture of other fixed interest assets to back the insurance liabilities of the Group. The sale will result in an IFRS net of tax loss of c£35m which includes the impact on the insurance liabilities resulting from the expected new asset mix.

This is the third sale by the Group of an LTM portfolio over the last fifteen months and further reduces Just's exposure to UK residential property risk. This completes the Group's programme of LTM portfolio sales.

The Group will announce results for the year ending 31 December 2021 on 10 March 2022 and will update the market on its Solvency II position and reduced sensitivity to moves in the UK property market at that time. The impact of the sale on the Group's Solvency II capital ratio will be broadly neutral.

I don't think that any of the people with the power to apply a windfall tax care what the opposition or the BBC thinks. The same opposition has been calling for BoJo to resign for months, and he's still there!

New to this group, but have an interest in insurers to balance out some of my more outlandish holdings (thank God).

I saw this in the Investors' Chronicle (3rd February 2022) - https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/02/03/just-a-matter-of-time/

Bull points
- Capital generation is stable
- Bulk annuities market is booming
- Discount makes it a takeover target
- Dividends slated to return

Bear points
- Key man risk

"When it releases results on 10 March, Just expects organic capital generation to have doubled to £18m, a year ahead of a key management target."

"... larger Just peer Phoenix Group recently closed deals worth £4bn in premiums in the second half of 2021. The insurer has also been exceptionally acquisitive over the past decade. This inevitably leads to speculation that Just could become a takeover target for a larger insurance group like Phoenix."

"... the downsides now for Just relate to whether it can keep its management team together. Having proven his worth in the top job after guiding the company through its reconstruction since 2019, chief executive David Richardson may decide at some point to take on a bigger challenge in the world of asset management. But, overall, the boss’s career prospects shouldn’t affect the basic foundations that have been laid during his tenure."

"Based on RBC Capital Markets’ forecasts for 2022, Just shares trade on 3.7 times earnings for 2022, during which time a return to dividends is expected. The discount to tangible net asset value (TNAV) is even more extreme; RBC expects TNAV to hit 214p a share by the end of 2022, compared with a share price that struggles to break into the 90p range. In other words, investors are buying at a 60 per cent discount to the group’s tangible worth."

I'm struggling to find the catch that would help explain such a low share price!

Yes, it should be, but even a three-letter code is beyond some people!

Now that you've kindly brought the discussion back on topic, I'm very happy with the performance of MTE over the last year. Seems to have weathered the last year or so quite well. Also a positive write-up in the Investors' Chronicle a couple of days ago.

Just purchased a few at 8.47, but the buy/sell range on my platform was showing as 8.35 - 8.37 just a few seconds before. It's going to be a bumpy ride again, I guess....

Anyone who was annoyed by past coverage in Investors Chronicle may be amused to hear that tomorrow's edition lists DARK as the number one riser in the FTSE All-Share over 1 week and over 3 months! Also, the price stated is 901p, so we have a 10% head start for next week :-)

I remember that, Rajbury - I admired your optimism at the time, but it's worked out exactly as you said! I think you said that 1,000 looked like the top, so I wondered where you see this going now (if the ML decision doesn't derail it)? Interested to hear from others too - if it reaches 1,000, are you buying more, selling or just holding? I would usually have rebalanced weeks ago, but I'm letting this run for now.

Have to agree - I'd overthink it, so just going with what I think is the general direction of travel. Bought my first block at 351 and a few more at 728 (just before it fell significantly), but it's a buy and hold with a few top-ups along the way. Whatever your approach, good luck all!

There's an investing.com article from 3 June that says "Darktrace (LON:DARK), which also listed its shares this year, was expected to be promoted but failed to make the grade at this juncture." The article doesn't provide any other detail, so not sure how helpful it is.

It's removed the link, but the full interview is on the Moneyweek website if you're interested.

Robleo and Chard - looks like you've had a lot of helpful insight from others on here, but might be worth a look at one of the fund managers' thoughts.

Source - https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/603184/tom-slater-of-scottish-mortgage-trust

The last year has surprised me in a lot of ways. But let me start by saying that we don't think that the outcome in any one year tells you a great deal. We're delighted with the returns that we've delivered for shareholders over the past year, but I think you've got to look at five years or probably ten years, when trying to assess the scale of a manager, the performance of the trust. Over time periods like one year, the market will be volatile – we have very little influence over the outcome on those time horizons.

So, first point, I would encourage listeners to look at much longer timeframes than just one year. If you look at what has happened, what has driven that outcome, it's not because we had any deep insight into what was going to happen in the course of the pandemic, or, indeed, the market reaction through this time of economic stress. Instead, it's that we're investing in the companies and entrepreneurs that are building the future of the economy.