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Whey isn't dropping 25%, Glanbia have already said that 2025 will see record high prices... "The company confirmed a $200 million (€190 million) whey cost headwind for 2025".

Great to have you back Stevo.

The nutrition market was a money printer a few years ago but now the margins pressures are ramping, and Glanbia even control some of the costs. I would expect this market to get to breakeven or lossmaking in the next decade as biotech advances even further. Competition like this is already a real world problem for Glanbia, having to sell off Slimfast due to the Ozempic surge. I haven't seen much technological advancement in the sports nutrition market for years, it's just the same brands selling the same products with the same formulations with slightly differing flavours and quality.

And Glanbia seem to be in a stronger position than THG Nutrition with Optimum Nutrition +7.5% CCY vs. Myprotein -9%. Also an EBITDA of 17% (120bps YOY) and we will find out Myprotein's in the next couple of months but I would expect it to be flat or slightly down.

This is also super interesting:

"What it actually means is the peak cost we're going to see now in high-end whey in 2025 will be 20% higher than the peak cost we saw post-Covid," Garvey said.

Didn't Matt Moulding say costs were coming down?

Hopefully they start at the top this time and remove the bloated costs there. For example the TWO CEOs reporting into another CEO, one of whom’s salary could probably support 10 graduate jobs, the abundance of managing directors (from looking on LinkedIn) that could run about 6 businesses and god knows how much other corporate wastage there is.

The other thing is that they are actually growing so there is implied upside. APN 16-20% growth vs. THG Nutrition -12%. Everyone is taking market share off THG it seems and they don't seem to have ever acknowledged this, only blaming FX and other things.

So there is a CEO overseeing a CEO overseeing a CEO... hmm.

Very solid results for BellRing Brands again, growing 24% in Q4 vs. Myprotein’s -13%… seems every competitor is growing except MP.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bellring-brands-nyse-brbr-surprises-221053588.html

What happened to the hotels and the country club? I thought they were under the Beauty division?

Have I missed something on the YoY numbers? For Q4 2023 they reported £553.6M (https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/95/61303) and for Q4 2024 they are reporting £493.7M. This is a -10.8% decline but in the trading statement it is shown as -5% YoY (and -2.5% YoY CCY).

Nutrition seems correct at -12.7% but Beauty should be -10% (£387.1M to £348.4M)?