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Not sure how last week's interview would have an impact on share price today. Old news now. He's the CEO and largest shareholder, so he has a pretty obvious bias. Take it with a grain of salt. As for Tenent, yes it's performing relatively well, but revenue is far short of 12 months ago. Theatres opening slowly in USA, Cine's biggest market.
I would be careful betting against BlackRock and other large firms with big short positions. Is there some information or insight you have that they don't? On the flip side, I'd bet there's lots of analysis they have that you don't. Big fish eat little fish.
Cine had to drop the Cineplex deal because their offer of $34 cad for a stock trading at $9 simply made no sense. Pandemic risk was explicitly excluded from the deal, so Cine is at risk of losing the lawsuit. The potential cost could be quite high, but nothing is guaranteed. Uncertainty is already priced. Whatever people post here is irrelevant to the share price, including my posts btw.
No comments on this board have any impact on the share price. Negative comments about a stock do not result in the price dropping. To believe that is does is delusional. There are bigger fish with much better information at their fingertips who drive the market. With a thinly traded penny stock, there are also opportunities for large shareholders to create short term blips to their advantage at the expense of the minnows. Just read all sides and use your good judgement as to what is true or not.
Spit in the ocean.
Another pov. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/case-of-buyer-s-remorse-cineplex-launches-lawsuit-against-cineworld-1.1460473
Did cine ever ask for Investment Canada approval? I'm not sure IC would give an answer unless they're asked for a decision by the parties involved.
It's unlikely Canadian regulators would have intervened in that manner. If CINE had requested approval, it would likely have been approved quickly as they rarely block these deals. Furthermore, there was no discussion over here of anyone trying to block the Plex takeover for any reason. The "top 3" reasons the deal fell apart is that cine could not pay $2.4b cad for a company now valued at $0.54b cad. Cine itself is only worth $0.8b ukp/ 1.3b cad.
Deal terms specifically excluded pandemic as a reason to cancel. Cineplex is probably on firmer ground financially in my opinion as the relative valuations show. They also have businesses that never had to shut down and have continued to generate cash flow during covid. The problem with cine is lack of transparency. The board consists of family and friends, so Mook doesn't get many hard questions. Their financials are 8mpenetrable by design. The USA is now where the bulk of cine's business is, it's not looking good for opening any time soon. Canada has fewer cases than Illinois and getting only a couple hundred new per day and dropping.
For comparison , Canada is clocking less than 500 cases per day and declining. If the US were at the same stage their daily would be @5000, but it's over 30,000 and rising. The rate of positive tests is also very instructive. In US it's around 10%, while 8n Ontario (largest province and worst hit by covid) it's less than 1%. There is no cause for optimism unless reaching herd immunity quickly is the goal. The upshot... Don't count on a quick end to this thing in USA. It's a clown show. Glad the border is sealed.
Do you understand rates of change? I'm wondering how you make any money. If rate of return is equal, you obviously earn more if you invest more. Applying your odd virus logic, you must make more by making tiny investments. Math is hard I guess.
Which company is in better shape? CGX market cap is about half of CINEs capitalization, while Cine operates more than 5x the number of screens worldwide. Debt to equity ratios are 85% and 79% respectively. CGX also has business units that didn't need to shut down including an active digital streaming service operating for years, so revenue is coming in. No idea what their actual debt level is, but quick math - $700M cad market cap, the ratio indicates about $600M in debt.
Canada is much better off wrt covid than both the UK and USA, where CINE has the bulk of their operations, and some theatres are opening right now, though very cautiously. Also, hints of accounting chicanery at CINE don't build confidence in their actual balance sheet.
I did check into the assertion that only 10% of seats filled is profitable. The article stated that 20 to 30 % is the usual industry break even. One interviewee reported some locations can make it at 10%. The average includes matinees and a lot of very low demand showing times which are averaged up by packed weekends.
As for plans to unlock, most countries / regions are putting theatres at the back of the bus. Three months is very optimistic to reopen. I suspect it could be more than a year.
1 year for a vaccine could happen given the resources committed globally, but more likely two years or longer.
Meantime, the bondholders need to be fed. CINE operates in so many jurisdictions, they can't count on any outsize government support. It will be piecemeal and spotty at best.
I'm generally an optimistic, but in this case...
CINE has a huge debt to service on top of zero revenue. Where does the cash come from?
Additionally, beyond simply opening the doors again, they'll need to get customers to come back and spend like they did in "the before time". It's going to take a while. Does CINE have the cash reserves to make it through?
Where did you get the figure of only 10% capacity needed to make money?
Simply opening the doors won't bring customers back quickly. Just a single outbreak linked to a theatre will prolong the agony and make it even harder to fill seats. Opening soon could easily backfire. CINE is a penny stock for a reason. It's not an investment, just a dice game. Bondholders will drive the outcome.
They have no cash and zero cash coming in. They have a huge debt load too. How could they possibly pay a dividend? Mere wishful thinking.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-cineworlds-28-billion-takeover-of-cineplex-likely-wont-happen-soon/
This deal was hanging by a thread even before coronavirus. Seems it's a game of chicken now to see which side breaches first and is forced to pay the $50 M break fee.
There's no way they will be able to close the Cineplex deal. Cineplex shares have been trading well below the offer price of $34 CAD on the TSX for days now, dropped to $26 CAD today (vs CINE's 65p). Too much debt even before covid. Banks forced the majority shareholders to sell 1/3 of their stake into a panic just to raise a bit of cash. How will they pay a dividend or scrape up the cash to buy CGX? Recent report of CINE accounting shenanigans is also a concern. This dog is going to zero.