Member Info for Jiving

Whilst it is possible a potential placing comes before FDA in early November, it is also possible that Dan & the BOD have stretched resources to last until just after the FDA is announced, knowing they could then place at a way higher price. 50:50.

Given where we are and what is coming along, I am not bothered about a small placing, which we know is needed to keep the lights on till after Xmas. It was flagged in the prospectus as needed in October & as a simple matter of negotiating tactics it makes no sense for Dan to be going into final negotiations with big pharma's knowing our money is running out. At current share price raising another GBP200k would be 100m shares at 0.20p or above - IF this rally persists obvs we might get better terms, but if we are talking only circa 5% dilution, frankly its negligible & wont seriously impact our short or medium term share price prospects.

The last placing came on 22 May, after the EMA's COMP committee had delivered its positive opinion on 30 April, and before final confirmation by the EMA on 29 May.

NASA1 the solution to our funding needs - short & long term - is a licensing deal, something Dan & the BOD are well aware of. We are right in the middle of the prime deal zone between EMA ODD approval & forthcoming FDA ODD approval - the latter is estimated to double the value of US biotech assets that receive it - an incentive for potential licensee's to act sooner rather than later.

NASA1 if they raise GBP200k at the moment it doesn't matter - at current market cap its a couple % & would represent a few hours trading volume. It would be just a blip, a few months ago it did matter but now attention is rightly focussed on the forthcoming FDA approval & a licensing deal.

And BTW I understand the continual reference to IMM as a biotech that has moved fast on news, but in market cap terms we are currently less than 10% of their cap and we have FDA approval (plus possibly a licensing deal after 18 months of negotiations!) likely coming in the next 5 weeks!

There are always going to be day traders in fast moving stocks, they will need to sell & their shares need to be bought, before upward progress resumes. That is what is happening now, and will keep recurring as we move up towards a more rational pre-deal valuation which is in the pence .....

Good spot Shaun, particularly notable in August is the specific mention of "....offtake counterparts" in parallel to the usual "..potential partners".

A case study I have mentioned before is the Australian lithium company Liontown which was about to be taken over by a US company Albemarle in late 2023. Billionairess Gina Rinehart scuppered this by taking a 19.9% stake, whilst signalling she was prepared to go over 25% if needed. In the event she didn't have to go to 25%+1 & the bid failed, causing a severe fall in the Liontown share price.

Arithmetically a lock-in that covers approx 35% of the share capital, leaves 65% of the share capital available for a potential blocking party to accumulate a 25% stake, either by cutting a deal with a major holder (Gupta maybe) and/or buying shares in the market. This limted lock-in still leaves that avenue open for the next 6 months.

An alternative explanation may be that the potential strategic investor specifically wanted Elphick and Cutifani & Co to remain on board with their shareholdings for a 6 month period whilst a deal was structured/finalised.

At some stage the US will become important, particularly if the licensing deal is with a US company. But even if its an international company the fact we are likely receive ODD from the FDA by early November in an extremely hot, highly valued biotech sub sector (inhaled IPF drugs); should drive sophisticated US biotech investors to our crazy low market valuation. If we only had a US ticker symbol (Pink List whatever) we would already be a multiple of where we are now.

Keeping his options open, looking for the best deal from 'whoever'.

A blocking vote means a party or parties has to obtain 25%+1 of the share capital. The current lock-in covers just under 35% of the share capital, so arithmetically it would be possible to obtain a blocking vote, particularly if a blocking party allied with one of the big holders not subject to lock-in - such as Gupta on just over 10%. Buying approx 15% in the market would allow a blocking party to join with Gupta and meet the 25%+1 hurdle. These are exactly the types of games that M & A departments, hedge funds, & arbitrageurs play. It is literally about arithmetic - the only sure way of stopping a blocking party is to have 75%+1 in the hands of the dominant shareholders/BOD.

At various times Elphick was intentionally close to this, certainly in the immediate post IPO days (Guava + Garbet = 72.89%) & many have speculated that when Glencore had its big stake that Elphick, + Glencore + the remains of the Garbet syndicate, 'might' have deliberately been close enough to easily achieve that figure (BVI company so allowable). But now with Glencore gone & their stake dispersed among multiple parties, that is no longer the case - this is one of the downsides of Glencore's exit. That said I don't see this type of activity occurring until we are way closer to a deal that we are at present, when we would have a higher share price & market cap.

Halespur, perhaps this is the new normal.

The problem for us LTH's is because we have been let down so much over the years & endured countless PnD runs, we become cynical when something happens. But this time IMO, it's different we are around a month away from FDA status - something that rightly drives all pharma's higher. We also know they have been in discussion with partners for 18 months now, the pre-FDA period is prime time for deal making (possibly competing bids to handle!).

My take is this is for real - 100m volume in the first 2 hours of trading & thus far no serious pullback! We are crazily undervalued & could easily justify being 10-20x current market cap even before FDA & deal news.

Extrader, interesting thoughts. We still await Cutifani's next move.

See todays RNS confirming lock-in for Greymont & Guava! Something is up!

This is the rationale behind my (wishful) thinking:

25.06.25 ZIOC RNS Positive Test Results Confirm DRI Product Quality

25.06.25 Vale Base Metals ("VBM") announced that Mark Cutifani will step down as Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vale Base Metals Limited ("VBM") to focus on new professional projects.

The dream scenario, Cutifani awaits scientific confirmation Zanaga is a world class DRI project before resigning from VBM. Is that a role with 3 or 6 months notice?

Thanks Catbert, that is what I suspected. He did not attend the most important ZIOC corporate event in a long time. Coupled with his recent share sales it makes me wonder is he on his way out as Chairman? Frankly, we need a change at the top to give the project momentum & credibility, I am hoping Greymont Bay made his eventual replacement a condition of their participation.

Would be interested to hear from any attendee - did Clifford Elphick attend the presentation, if so did he introduce the speakers or make any contribution?

Orphan status is critically important to NFX, in not only receiving various benefits, but also securing critical validation from respected agencies like the EMA & FDA. However, the primary patent protection for NXP002 comes from two separate groups of patents it holds. Oral tranilast is out of patent protection in Japan & already has generic competitors. The primary protection for NXP002 are the patents in various jurisdictions, including the US, specifically claiming various rights for our version of inhaled tranilast.

The second set of patents are essentially defensive, and are designed to protect our specific version of inhaled tranilast from potential competing versions. Thus Nuformix has a separate patent family in multiple jurisdictions, including US20240075023A1, that protects the use of inhaled tranilast, alone or in combination with pirfenidone and/or nintedanib, for the treatment of fibrotic diseases. This creates a defensive strategy, potentially blocking competitors like Avalyn from developing their own version of inhaled tranilast & using it in combination with AP03, without licensing permission from NFX.

OSD, I have some sympathy with your points - given recent NFX history. However versus other inhaled IPF comparables, NFX is grossly undervalued & regardless of potential dilution, sooner or later that may change - perhaps dramatically even prior to an actual deal. Also there has been a recent public jump in valuations for inhaled IPF treatments in the US. Most notably a $4.5b boost to United Therapeutics share price, when it announced successful Phase 3 trials results for Tyvaso. Similarly Avalyn secured $100m in further funding for their two inhaled, repurposed IPF drugs in July, which are historically very similar to NXP002 albeit at a later trials stage.

Also, we don’t know the state of the partner discussions, perhaps a deal is specifically contingent on receiving FDA approval? Dilution is always hanging over NFX, but if you buy into the NXP002 results & the story, you have to bite the bullet some time. I’m not unduly bothered about a ’ticking over’ dilution of what 10-15% maybe, its the 10-50x post-deal multiple on which I am focussed. Particularly if we do a US deal & subsequently draw in US biotech investors excited by the inhaled IPF story.

230m volume in first 6 hours trading, roughly 11.5% of shares in issue.