RE: Good entry point10 Apr 2026 20:13
Large move down on Friday after the results but on thin volume (c. 0.2% of market cap), Athenex closed for Orthodox Easter until Tuesday. I don't think the traders on the LSE understand this stock. Listening in on the earnings call, the chair said that his nat gas is hedged until 2028 while aluminium spot has climbed steadily to near all time highs. Significant chunk of global supply from Gulf is offline for a long time. Chair said that his policy is to hedge forward Alu sales if margins above 30%, I'm guessing a lot of alu profit is locked in for 2026/27 at much higher margin than 25. The company is still getting cheap Russian Turkstream gas (35%) until end 2027. Balance sheet is rock solid as they didn't end up winning the Alu Dunkerque bid. Renewables development business doing well with stronger interest post Iran. Nothing about disruption to gas supplies (pipeline & non Gulf LNG) . I suspect Q1 trading has been very strong which means management can't buy until they put out the trading update at the AGM in late May. Virtually all of the short positions were disclosed prior to the Iranian strikes on the Bahrain and UAE alu plants. At the thin daily LSE volume, days to cover is over 3 weeks, those guys are mad in my view.