Member Info for jinvestus

In case it is of interest, my write up on Microsoft. TDLR - the combination of cloud compute and AI integration into its product line make it a compelling buy and 'AI winner' for 2026.

https://joewinterfinance.substack.com/p/microsoft?r=5rrqkz&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

Sorry, that was a bit OTT, just sick of all the off-topic posts on these housebuilding boards.

Crossley I agree it was a poor trading update from Vistry, however I'm slightly less negative. Debt was paid down to £27m less this point last year, but from £92m higher starting point, so I think they have paid down £119m this half which is not paid. After the terrible year they had last year it makes sense to focus on paying down the debt. The margins are low this half, but it was advised previously 2025 would be particularly weighted to H2 due to lower-margin completions in H1 vs. higher-margin in H2, so I'd hope it averages out. They advise they are on target to beat profit from last year (not a hard target) but it means H2 should be quite strong. It's hard to tell if its a poor performance or just a very weighted H2 year. Not good but not necessarily a disaster.

What are peoples thoughts on PSN through 2025/2026? The trading update in May looked good, this seems to be a reliable company compared to other housebuilders. Some updates this year have been good (Bellway) others poor (Baratt-Redrow) so wondering where PRN will land on the spectrum. In general I am quite bullish on the sector, should be due a couple of rate cuts this year, a lot of government support re: spending review, CMA investigation done and most recent Construction PMI had homebuilders finally expanding. If inflation does decrease as planned then we should see the build costs come down a bit too.

what is your major malfunction? she literally said they were going to get deported, isn't that exactly what you want? or do you also want to see them destitute and humiliated? if your self esteem is so low that the only way you can feel good about yourself is by continually dumping **** on some of the most vulnerable people in the country, you probably need to get off the computer and see a doctor. get a grip.

Yes better to leave those frothing-at-the-mouth moronic rants to the Britain First boards, this is for discussing Vistry. You'd have to be duller than a blackboard eraser to not understand that building 300k houses a year is going to benefit the British public.

I'm really hoping this is the kick that investors need to see the deep value in Vistry. 700p is an insane price considering its margins, core profitability and now these tailwinds. Very robust measures have been taken since the profit warnings, but I think the overhang is going to weight on the company for a little while longer. There is a trading update 10th of July and then HY results 10th September, with the recent trading update suggesting these will be good. A sustained period of increasing profitability should really convince investors Vistry's problems are in the past. Nonetheless hopefully this recent kick will start a bull run up to £800-900 which is getting out of the 'stupidly undervalued' range, and may pick up excitable buyers along the way.

What AI engine is that? Gemini? It does not make sense / contradicts itself. It says 35000uF = 35mF but then goes on to say uF = mF, how can 35000 = 35? Try ChatGPT!

MF is millifarad in this case, see mouser data sheet [1] where 35 mF is used in the header and 35000 uF in the specs lower down. The closest competitor is 0.4 mm thick Linga Energy's which has much higher capacitance at 1.2 F but is much wider/longer and lower voltage.

[1] https://eu.mouser.com/ProductDetail/Murata-Electronics/DMHA14R5V353M4ATA0?qs=YCa%2FAAYMW01KLzU67IDNPw%3D%3D

Good question Hayden170 I was also curious about these spikes without news. This is how I think about it but I'm not sure how correct this is so interested on peoples thoughts. At this level of liquidity, a relatively small amount of money can have a major effect on the price. For example over the last few days the volume has been as low as 36M (~£53k), today was higher at 294M (~£529k). This is within the realm of a single (admittedly wealthy) persons decision to buy having major effects on the stock price. Also, (someone correct me if I'm wrong ) if the stock is traded on through spread betting or CFD at leverage, the broker will buying the stock to hedge, and due to the leverage the effect will be magnified.

So basically it might be simply that a reasonably wealthy trader or retiree woke up one morning, liked the look of the cpx website and decided to buy in. I guess hard to predict in the grand scheme of things.

I believe the IFS study on spending review decisions was what the letter referred to as 'media reports' and 'unprotected' departments: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/four-big-decisions-2025-spending-review

Brain is not working today! MHCLG

*MHCLU

MHGLU funding is still not set and rumors of significant cuts [1] probably weighing on the share price. I would be amazed if there are significant cuts, after Rayner pushing for increased Affordable Housing Programme funding and the government constantly going on about its 1.5 million target. The recent news that they are unlikely to hit this target at current spending will hopefully put a bit of pressure on Reeves to increase funding. However, I was surprised and a little disconcerted at this news, and that significant cuts here were even possible. Long term I agree Vistry is great value and it is just a question of when the turnaround will be and what the catalyst is (e.g. increased AHP spending, lowering interest rates). Nonetheless increased housing funding would be a significant boon and immediate catalyst for sp increase.

https://www.yourmoney.com/mortgages/spending-review-is-make-or-break-for-labours-1-5-million-housing-target/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

The drop today seems completely irrational, MJ Gleeson profit warning mostly from a fallen through land sale. They also also affected by rising inflation which Vistry has forecast on multiple times, as well as their strategy to mitigate it based on their economies of scale (which GL Gleeson does not have). MJ Gleeson is entirely affordable housing so less diversified than Vistry and is going to be suffering more in this period between Affordable Homes Programme funding. Have topped up.

On KEMET, parkez had previously mentioned a common solder melts at temperature above the acceptable range of the FC series. However, I could not confirm the melting point he mentioned. You can check for yourself common solder melting points and reflow profiles at [1] and compare them to the FC and FC series profiles at [2]. As far as I could tell CAP-XX have not yet published the compatible temperature range of their own supercapacitors, maybe they will be able to tolerate slightly higher temperatures, but I'm not sure that will matter much. It appears the only meaningful difference is the capacitance range of the line, as mentioned in the article.

I am just a retail investor and decided to publish my thoughts on the stock, as I had done a lot of research and felt it was wasted sitting in a drawer. Of course DYOR research etc, but that's the conclusion I came to on the company.

[1] https://www.compuphase.com/electronics/reflowsolderprofiles.htm#:~:text=For%20soldering%20with%20lead%2C%20the,alloy%20is%20an%20eutectic%20alloy.

[2] https://content.kemet.com/datasheets/KEM_S6011_FC.pdf

I wrote an analysis of CAP-XX with my prediction for the next year (spoiler: another raise in 2026) https://joewinterfinance.substack.com/p/cap-xx. Includes a history of the company, might be useful for those thinking about dipping your toe in.

I think the main reason is the news that Rachel Reeves is lightening off on her fiscal rules, and that Angela Rayner has been pushing for more affordable housing. Both promise more money for housebuilding initiatives and social housing in the spending review. Because Vistry's partnership model means they work closely with councils, they should stand to benefit more from this that other builders.

More generally, Vistry share price seems to be change on a multiple of the other house builders at the moment. It may just be slightly more volatile due to its undervaluation and hangover sentiment from the profit warnings.

Big month coming with a CMA update due and spending review on June 11th announcing Affordable Homes Programme funding. Given the recent poor economic data and Trump hitting the EU with more tariffs we are starting from a low point, so this could be a very good or very bad few weeks.

Thanks Vanilla, I was actually referring to that post but I should have been more clear in my question. My understanding is that reflow soldering can be done in a reflow oven that uses infrared ray and heat blow (which I take to mean the convection part of a reflow oven). The references to 'furnace' in the spec makes me think they indeed mean a reflow oven rather than manual methods. So I don't understand how this is not for use in a reflow oven (I have no experience with electronics manufacturing), are there more modern reflow ovens that use a different method?

Thanks TONY_P, that's a good point the FC-series is 0.1-1F range (here from 2022: https://www.kemet.com/en/us/technical-resources/choosing-the-right-supercapacitor-for-your-application.html) and a more up to date spec (https://content.kemet.com/datasheets/KEM_S6011_FC.pdf). Given the information in the 2022 resource, it would seem they have had these for a while. If so, I feel the CAP-XX releases on this have been a little disingenuous, I'd like to hope I'm overlooking some important technical detail and this is not the case.

@parkez are you sure that KEMET does not have reflow oven compatible supercaps? The FC-line e.g. FC0V224ZFTBR24 spec[1] says:

2.1 Mounting onto a reflow furnace

"Except for the FC series, it is not possible to mount this capacitor onto an IR / VPS reflow furnace. Do not immerse the capacitor into a soldering dip tank"

and:

"This series is exclusively for reflow soldering. It is designed for thermal conduction system such as combination use of

infrared ray and heat blow. Consult with KEMET before applying other methods."

with the FC line handling peak temperatures 235-260 degrees.

[1]: https://www.mouser.co.uk/datasheet/2/447/KEM_S6011_FC-3316896.pdf

Vanilla it is interesting to compare the two recent wins (South Africa 2024 and this) with past RNS from CAP-XX. Previously these announcements include the supercapacitor model and company, and were published more frequently (although actually, this may be in part because they took in a lot of Murata customers after acquiring their product lines). Since Lars took over, there have only been two announcements with no real detail. Lars did say something to the effect, in the earnings call, that previous management had given over-optimistic forecasts and he would rather not provide false guidance. Similarly, he mentioned a few times about the importance of confidentiality around these deals.

So, it may be that his style is to keep his cards closer to his chest, publish only high-revenue events and give few details away. Then, let the earnings updates speak for themselves. Alternatively, the opposite could be the case and CAP-XX is only able to make a few low-revenue deals and these are been published with little detail in the interest of keeping a new flow. Or, this is SMT and no details can be given. I do feel though that if this was SMT a trading update would have been issued indicating the first revenue-generating shipments of SMT had been made.

I've no idea which option is the case! The history of Lar's management is too short for us to know if such announcements turn out to be material in later earnings. Looking at Digikey stock, and comparing with previous stock levels using the WayBack machine, I guess around 100k revenue from digikey in the last year (this is a minimum, it may be there have been multiple stock-cell cycles, but having tracked Digikey sales since February, barely any have sold, so I'm doubtful. My impression from management was that Digikey would contribute more to revenues. Either the above estimate is incorrect, or we need to be a little careful about how management sets expectations, which would make me view this recent RNS more skeptically.

e.g. past CAP-XXX RNS for contract wins

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/capxx_limited/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1213&newsid=1644446

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/capxx_limited/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1213&newsid=1553073

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/capxx_limited/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1213&newsid=1549446

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/capxx_limited/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1213&newsid=1536028

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/capxx_limited/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1213&newsid=1535252

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/capxx_limited/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1213&newsid=903613

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/capxx_limited/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1213&newsid=951197