Member Info for jimtheknow

Lets hope it's not 88e

It's quite embarrassing reading some of the posts today but it doesn't surprise, I've been here long enough now to know better. I don't know what's worse, the crying that a share price has gone down (shock!, horror!) or the vomit inducing ramping and blind faith from those with low IQ. I seem to recall one post where someone said that 2500 bopd may make us more attractive to a farm-in, if this was you please stop investing and wasting your hard earned money. Get a paper round or something.

Todays RNS is good, very good in fact. We now know we have until at least April to drill P#1 which although the extension was expected, this is a huge confirmatory boost and I am very pleased by this. There has been curve ball after curve ball on this journey and anything that is sat with the Bahamas government always has a potential for another curve ball so to now know everything is within BPC's gift is very satisfying, BPC will drill this well in Q1 2021 in my opinion there is no doubt.

I was a vocal opponent of the merger and like I quite rightly pointed out in my 2nd August post, the merged company will not be greater than the sum of it's parts, I can't help but feel 100% vindicated here. I was right, simple. However, I do get it. My big opposition was to the timing and value of the deal and not necessarily to CERP and this is my next point.

The boards reason to buy CERP was to leverage 'something', as opposed to being able to leverage BPC's nothing. I believe we paid too high a price for that 'something' but if they can now convince someone who has a pot of money to part with their pot based against a forward looking plan like the one put out today, of which they can judge the credibility of, then we may get better terms than the current CLN's, or the current CLN's may get revised more in our favour if we get competition? I said in one of my first posts about the merger, if we can come in at roughly the same issued share capital as was predicted at the AGM which authorised the 1.8bn issue authority then it's about ok.

Let's be absolutely clear, there is absolutely no need for any market placing in the near future. We have >$10m cash in the bank, we have our Bahamian Family Office sugar daddy and with the insurance policy in place we are virtually over the line on the conditions precedent for the CLN if it's needed. There will be no placing at these low levels.

I am very happy and confident after todays RNS and genuinely look forward to the next 4 months where we will see a positive change. I have my disgruntlements about some of our BoD's energy and enthusiasm levels but I don't doubt their competence to deliver and they will deliver this well.

I have even upped my 'Opinion' to Buy (from Hold) at these low 2p values as I think it offers good value from here.

P&T, I think maybe you need to view it another way with BPC. They’re not bothered about playing their hand, they’re not even that bothered about us. All they want to do is get the drill turning and they have no real care what the sp does on the way there.

Look back to the Open Offer. They weren’t that interested in giving us a bite of the cherry as they knew they had financing boxed off with institutional placing regardless, They came out and said all the right things that they were listening to their shareholders and putting us first but we probably ****ed their plans up a bit. They wanted a hungrier market with punters starved of shares so it would line the pockets of the institutions that would support a placing and they would shift them on to us idiots.

They’ll deliver a well on a timeline that suits them and Bahamas government whilst being handsomely remunerated along the way and they’ll have accumulated that many share options by time we drill it matters little to them what the sp is and if we hit they’ll put hand in their pockets and buy the options, and if it’s a duster they’ve lost nothing.

They need to be pushed to deliver this well asap and get it over and done with rather than stringing everyone along.

See, that whinge makes me feel better now. Catharsis at its best.

That drill bit won’t start turning until Q1 2021. It will happen but the second lesson to learn is they don’t do anything early, they push the limits of what is promised, and then some.

P&T, lovely thought and I and hundreds of others will agree with you that they need to talk to shareholders but you won’t get anything out of them.

The BPC board taught Anne Frank how to be quiet.

The only thing worth sticking around for here is the size of the prize and the competency in BPC management to deliver the drill, you don’t have to like them. Wishing for anything else from BPC is futile, so don’t let it get to you. You get used to it, promise.

That’s what this bulletin board is all about. Forget all the absolute rubbish that gets spouted on here about share prices, market makers, deals, buys/sells, etc - it all means nothing. This bulletin board is just a cathartic process to help us deal with the mute BoD, it’s like the Alcoholics Anonymous of AIM here.

Petro, radio silence is the norm from BPC so don't get too upset or frustrated about it. They operate on a need to know basis and shareholders don't need to know. They've often said they don't put information out to get peoples hopes up, they say this is them being responsible.

They only thing they need to pull their fingers out of is the wacky bacc'y and/or biscuit tin.

Stena IceMAX is the word on the street for P#1

3 weeks today the window opens for a number of Stena announcements, including the naming of the drillship that will be deployed.

Strength = Potential Super Giant oil field find in Bahamas.
Weakness = The lethargic and content Cheech & Chong (Simon & Eytan) at the BPC steering wheel.
Opportunity = Possibility to leverage actual oil in place in CERP assets for funding opportunities.
Threat = Bahamas government not doing as expected. CERP assets become money pit. Cheech & Chong getting more greedy eyes for 'bargain' opportunities. The world has no requirement for oil after another convenient set-back.

Some were cancelled bryn

Findme, I don’t disagree with any of your theory, it’s possible. But all signs and past performance points more towards a Sea Lion and not a Liza outcome I feel.

Findme, I understand what you’re saying but what I would say is just look no further than Liza development in Guyana by Exxon, Hess & CNOOC. They are credited with delivering the fastest discovery to production time in the industry, thus being 5 years.

That is one of the worlds biggest companies with deep pockets and no need arrange financing and all the tunes that often need to be considered and played for that. Exxon and partners just pushed the button and went for it, do you honestly think BPC have that about them? Be honest with yourself.

If they do decide to essentially go it alone with the FPSO route, how long before that returns good dividends to shareholders after costs?

Leo Koots in his CERP peddling stated any find is likely to be that big it will be developed by ‘big oil’ and I’ve got no reason to doubt that. BPC going it alone with an FPSO is a possibility, but more likely a pipe dream in my mind. BPC’s goal is still to get a big name on the ticket and drive a deal so they keep c. 40% with minimal financial obligations.

I'd be ecstatic with 15p, i'll be doing naked cartwheels.

The sad and perverse thing about the COPL comparison is they now have a chance of beating BPC to drilling a well - COPL were out on their feet 6 months ago and as good as gone. Even if they don't beat BPC, COPL's drill is all fully paid for so no more dilution likely and given their tiny market cap, much bigger potential upside from where they are. If COPL receive the expected PSC extension in next 6 weeks they could re-rate to between 2p & 3p.

BPC need to hang their head in shame.

Keep taking the medication.

Unfortunately there's not a chance in hell this is getting to 20p in my lifetime now. A £700m - £800m company with production rates in the 10's of barrels that no one has managed to scale-up in decades - no chance i'd say. Even a good strike of oil at P#1 will take the best part of a decade to realise with huge costs. This share ain't going much further than 15p for as long as i'll be breathing I suspect.

Irene,

Under the previous Degsy incarnation Star would often allow speculation to build, and play on it, that Degsy was a woman.

For BPC to become TXP requires us hitting around 4.2p, so we're almost there - shouldn't be long to wait. And that would obviously still be below the highs pre-merger announcement.

….we could be 25% higher now :-)

...you decide whatever 'end' means.

So Uncas, are you posting under onlybpc now?