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To be honest, I don't have much experience with microcap shares. The vast majority of investors appear to be retail and many are just in for a quick profit so if they have made a decent return, may turn risk averse and go elsewhere. It hasn't even been a month since the launch.
Short answer to your question: < 50p.
Many of big pharma's IP is acquired through I don't see why they wouldn't be.
Brand, true - the US govt can be considered an angel investor but how many retail investors are aware of the cost per participant in the trial? BTW, just to be clear, I am not disputing your point - merely pointing out what is the likely perception (ie ignorance) among investors.
As for covid fatigue, Merck and Pfifzer are the instigators of said fatigue. You need to take a step back and take a look at the entire sector. Rightly or wrongly (wrongly in my book), their headlines have drained away attention from many covid plays, again because "dumb retail" hasn't read the fineprint about either pill.
I have been scratching my head over this as well. As someone who invests primarily in US shares and holds 2 AIM stocks, let me throw out a few theories (in no particular order):
1. Impact of retail investors - There is no equivalent of WallStreetBets (WSB) in the UK. The US has a large retail investor base who through social media, disseminates shares and rumours quickly.
2. Risk aversion/lack of angel investor - SNG has chosen to go it alone. Investors see partnerships as sign that the tech is credible. Compare that with Atea, who partnered with Roche to develop a covid pill. Their share price was doing well until the recent phase 2 readout. Another example would be Arcturus, who has support from the Singapore government. Of course, one can argue that Polygon is kind of an angel investor but the reality is that it isn't a household name.
3. General covid fatigue - across the board, many pharma and biotechs have been flat or down lately.
Odysseus, "the dictator" showed complete ignorance of the trial or willfully misrepresented it. He showed a combative attitude from the start without even having an open mind to the possibility. One has to ask, why would someone take that stance without actually having spent time looking into the product or study?
In regards to questioning the motives of those responding - yes, they could be investors. But if you question their legitimacy, you must also question his purpose as well.
Od, well said. I find your comments well tempered and reasonable. One need not be an irrational zealot to be an investor in a company. In fact, being well tempered sets expectations and encourages patience.
...and thank you for the link MilkyTea. I recall you mentioning being on the trial and your feedback has been very encouraging.
Skip, there is one troll in that thread misrepresenting the product. Encouragingly enough, there are several responses who testify to the benefits and a few who call him out for adding nothing to the discussion.
The volume in the US is miniscule at 10,000 shares traded per day.
thanks for that. It's going to feel like a few looonng weeks.
That contractor covered 1000 trial participants, or approx 2% of the total. You have to look at the P3 results and compare against the side effects and efficacy in the real world setting (pre-delta) to judge whether or not it was material. I don't think it is. As ugly as the headline may be, pushing this story does not help our fight against covid. It merely provides fuel for anti vax nut jobs who struggle with statistics to begin with.
Prion, many thanks! I did miss it. Very useful.
Some of those names though...I may be mistaken but I recall reading a similar article when SNG came out with their p2 figures lol
elrico, hate to break it to you but I don't hang on every word you write. Some of it is useful but much of it is pumper level irrationality. I made comments and you seem intent on winning a few arguments that you have conjured in your head. Let me summarize as it seems your reading comprehension is lacking:
Me: I think it may take awhile for the product to garner a large following. While not expensive, it isn't cheap either.
You: But but there are so many sufferers...
Me: Yes. Accepted. However, it will still take time. I am an investor and think it will take time (ie not going to panic). If you disagree that it will take time, then offer up a forecast for 3 months and see who knows what they are talking about.
You: But but I talked to SA....
I really don't know what you are arguing about. AGAIN, LET ME REPEAT...1. I believe this is a good product, 2. I believe it will take time to gain momentum. IF YOU DISAGREE AND WANT TO SHOOT DOWN OTHERS VIEWS, then don't be evasive. step up to the plate my friend and let's see whose forecast is more accurate. This will be entertaining to your subscribers I bet!
I came across this article regarding pfizer's covid pill - haven't fact checked it but it does suggest we need to pay more attention to the participants of their trial.
https://www.griproom.com/fun/pfizers-covid-pill-might-not-be-as-great-as-theyre-saying
Ndn, Alpha - thanks for pointing this out.
Alpha, Pfizer's trial recruited patients with at least one comorbidity other than having covid, such as having diabetes. All were considered "at risk". I don't recall the home trial exclusively looking at that cohort.
The difference between the placebo group and those taking the pill was significant. It would be ethically wrong to continue with the trial when there is strong evidence that a treatment can be made available that saves lives.
...though 2 years out seems too long imo.
Skid, "2 years out". Yes, that was exactly my point when I said that it would require momentum and patience, but you and Elrico , by throwing out those millions of sufferers figures, suggested that the uptake will be faster.
Slow and steady subscription growth is fine.