RE: Value of Barryroe stake?17 Mar 2017 11:21
I think everybody knows that the valuation is much too low (in the event of a farmout)
The problem is that there are a number of unknown factors which make it difficult to arrive at a really solid number.
1/ How much of the 70ish million barrels will LOGP be able to hang on to? The idea was always to go for retaining 50% of this...lets hope this happens.
2/ How much money will the farminee put on the table to cover back costs, which are quite considerable?
3/ How complicated and costly will it be to develop the field and what percentage recovery can be achieved?
4/ What is the value of the tax credits that the developer can offset against the field development cost?
5/ Will the farminee also farm into the very substantial unexplored exploration targets that underlie the already
identified 2C resource?
6/ What will the oil and gas price be going forward?
I dare say that Steve Boldy and Tony O'Reilly and their respective teams have been analysing and brainstorming all these issues for years now and could come up with some kind of decent estimate. So have all the other interested parties down the years. Getting a farmout done on a basis that is acceptable to both parties and to the companies backers has always been the challenge. And then there is the annoying issue of SLE having a 4.5% net profit interest in PVR's 80 percent stake in the field. Thankfully this does not effect LOGP.
Some of these questions will only be answered when the field has been properly appraised. In the meantime I am
tending on the conservative side. But thanks for raising this question of valuation, as it has given me an opportunity to get my head around this again after putting these shares on the back burner (so to speak). On reflection I think that the estimate of around 10.5 pence per share is very very low, but if we could get the share price moving into that territory in the first place and get the damn field appraised and a Field Development Plan agreed and costed,
then that would be the springboard for the share price to advance much further (all going well).