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We need some good news TipTop :-)
I tried to push for an answer at the amg regarding numbers for q2. Their response was that they have had similar downtime to the previous quarter, in other words don’t expect a large increase. When I pushed even harder to try and understand whether we had maintained a positive cash flow again for the second quarter DB said they had not needed to ask for additional funds from the lenders or the major shareholders... read into that what you will...
Personally and based on this, I’m not expecting much of an increase on last quarter (circa 3 to 4m) and I’ll tell you why.
I believe (and it’s just my opinion) with DB and team, candy and co now know what is needed to fully unlock the value of this project and they want to buy this debt back from the banks at a much much lower price then today’s value. If they start to show huge increases. The banks will happily agree a new deal, sit back, take their interest plus their capital payments and job done.
Either way, I think we are in a win win situation, but I’m not expecting huge increases this quarter although I’m VERY happy to be wrong. :-)
These guys have a plan, they looked confident at the Amg like “we knew how this will play out guys to just trust us...” wink wink nudge nudge.
DYOR and as always good luck to everyone invested here.
Completely agree Adam. There was a very strong feeling and confidence that they knew exactly how this is likely to play out. (And it did not involve handing back the keys) That there is a plan working behind the scenes and despite what SP article said DB and team were in this for the long term and to make this a success.
It’s all just speculation at the moment. But I am one of those believers in “no smoke without fire.” It’s also a natural play for the majors if they still 100 percent believe in the mines potential. “We’ll buy you out for 50 cents on the dollar mr bank, you get your money now rather then having to wait for what could be many many years and no guarantees you will recover everything.
QUESTION???
Just running though some scenarios and how things might play out.
If the 2 big boys do come to an agreement with the banks to buy the debt at a reduced price as the banks don’t want to wait indefinitely for . We could end up owing the major shareholder say circa 70m.
Can they convert the debt into additional shares? Thus increasing their holdings and diluting us? Is there a limit to what they can do? Do les anyone know or has anyone experienced this type of play at other companies?
I remember reading somewhere (from someone on this board) that there are restrictions in the articles of association on the major shareholders.
Would love to know your thoughts?
One last thing before I go to bed. Unlike our previous CEO, this guy “in my opinion” is not going to agree ANYTHING with the banks unless it works, is sustainable and profitable for MTL. I truly believe that having met him today. No more bulls&it mezzanine deals at 20 percent interest per annum like the previous clowns have agreed.
IF we can get this over the line (and that’s the gamble for any investors here) this will absolutely fly with the other headwinds behind us. IMO
It’s hard to say Adam, I already own 12.9m shares and don’t plan to buy or sell anything until we are at multiples.
Darren was very realistic at today’s meeting, doesn’t oversell or over commit, he certainly wasn’t singing from the rooftops about how cheap the SP is and that it’s only a matter of time before the deal is done.
He is still very complimentary about the set up “world class mine, world class operation, world class team etc...” knows we haven’t hit full capacity yet and what options are available to make these improvements.
What I will say (for what it’s worth) and putting the article to one side, I feel like we are in a much better position then we were on 1st February when the share price was almost 3 times the current price (1.6p) Debts have not increased, Nomad has been secured, We have turned the Busienss into a profit making firm for the first quarter in the companies history (Jan to March 19) and looks set to continue the good work for q2. Gold price has shot up and is continuing to push upwards.
As always DYOR and GLA
DJ - Someone did ask the question in a round about way, and the answer was something along the lines of. It’s not impossible (despite what has been written in the press about licenses not being able to be transferred etc...) but it would be very difficult and more importantly no discussions have taken place with the government to suggest this was even remotely a possibility. Which I would have assumed (if this was a feasible option) would have been discussed in great detail by now. That was my take on the answer, if anyone else was there in person or on a conference call, would be keen to hear your view?
My gut feeling is there is absolutely no chance of this not getting extended in a few days time. A deal will take longer.
My gut feeling is that we have given the banks 3 options.
A) take a haircut and get your money back now.
B) work with us to come up with a deal which could involve you waiting many years for your returns and there are no guarantees
C) take control of the mine
Let’s be realistic, C is not an option.
Just my opinion.
I joined the AGM today guys, all the usual formalities and all 7 resolutions passed. I asked a question about resolution 6 which gives the board the ability to allot 2m pounds worth of new shares when they want if needed and weather there was any plans to exercise this right if passed in the coming 6 months. The answer was no we have no plans to.
Pharma - There was a similar amount of downtime this quarter to last. Last quarter was 2 weeks although they would not elaborate on the numbers as they are unable to do this. They did say that they have not spent the profit from last quarter but would not comment on whether that meant they have made money or not this quarter. My gut feeling is similar numbers to last month.
In order to take the mine from 66 to 85 percent (as per today’s RNS) they have a number of options available, but would not give any indication of costs and timescales as this is being worked through as we speak. I got the impression they know what needs to be done!
Discussions are ongoing with the banks and categorically dismissed the talks had broken down, but did give the impression its now in the banks hands.
The message was there are no quick fixes but Darren gave me the feeling he was 100000 percent committed to getting this back on track and doing everything within his power to help. He has just hired a very key person in the plant who is one of the best in the world at what he does (helping to improve efficiency) starts in a few weeks. (Would a key player join a mine about to be delisted... I doubt it!!!
I came away feeling that these guys (particularly Darren) knows exactly what they are doing and do not want to give too much away given they are still in the middle of a VERY important negotiation.
Someone asked why did he join and his response was very much I’ve built billion dollar plants and run very large companies, I believe I can build this company out and make it a real success.
Like I said yesterday, I understand this has been over played and that a statement from MTL will be arriving tomorrow ;-)
I do believe there was a little bit of truth in the article. I would certainly believe that Nick and Graham have tried to buy the debt from the banks at a significantly reduced price, but the banks are unwilling to take a hair cut of 30c on the dollar. This to me shows confidence in the assett they hold. The question is are the banks willing to take over a mine in the middle of nowhere knowing that the management team who have just turned this around will likely move on... I think not!!!
Interesting from the statement that we need additional funds to get from 66% to 85% especially as one of the points we are voting on today allows MTL to raise 2m pounds from a placing, in the event they would need it. I plan to dig more on this today.
I can not believe we are sitting here looking at a share price starting with a 7!!!
I can not believe we are sitting here looking at a share price starting with a 7!!!
Absolutely crazy!!!
I’ve also had confirmation from MtL that they have maintained positive cash flow month on month (since the last quarterly report) this is the first time in the companies history. No doubt we will hear more during the AGM in a few weeks.