Member Info for JeffMills

Statera has mentioned they’ll be ready to make a final investment decision (FID) on the project by 2026. So, while it sounds promising, it might not be the 500MW FID we’ve been expecting just yet. That said, making an FID as late as 2026 and still hitting 500MW by 2028 would be incredibly fast. It could either be a mistake or a sign of just how quickly ITM can scale up once a few of these projects are underway. Exciting times if they can pull it off.

It looks like the news we've been waiting for might finally be here. According to recent reports from The Times, Statera is set to invest £600 million in developing 500 megawatts (MW) of energy capacity by 2028, with plans to scale up to an impressive 3 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the decade. Could this be the long-awaited 500MW FID we've been anticipating? It seems like we might be on the verge of some exciting updates.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/0392d712-e816-4b2a-87ff-11f82812b1bf?shareToken=f088d04af2d08b9d3e9028055a0c2a6e

The 500 MW contract could generate significant revenue for ITM Power over 4 years from its Final Investment Decision (FID) to completion. Assuming an average sale price of around €700,000-€800,000 per MW, this contract could be worth roughly €350-400 million (around £300-350 million). Spread over 4 years, that’s around £75-90 million in annual revenue directly tied to this project.

Given ITM's current revenue levels and market position, securing such a deal could dramatically boost the share price. On the day of announcing the FID, we could see could jump significantly—potentially doubling or more to 100p-150p—as investors revalue the company's growth potential. However, I think for ITM to realise the full share price impact (possibly 200p or higher), patience is key. The full revenue and profit generation from this project will only materialise as the contract progresses and the market gains confidence in ITM’s execution.

It's almost silly to ask if ITM will return to 600p in our lifetime—it's not a question of "if," but "when."

To give you an idea, hitting 700p again would likely require ITM to have a turnover in the range of £150-200 million annually, which is very achievable with a couple of large-scale projects like Shell's and several others as the UK and global markets ramp up hydrogen adoption. The market demand for hydrogen is growing rapidly, and ITM is in a prime position to capitalise on that.

So, the question shouldn’t be “will it happen in our lifetime,” but rather how soon these big contracts will fall into place to make it happen. With the right deals, 700p isn't far-fetched within the next 2-3 years.

The Netherlands aims for up to 4 GW of green hydrogen capacity by 2030, and Poland has set a target of around 2 GW by the same year. In comparison, the UK has a more ambitious goal of 5 GW by 2030, positioning itself as a leader in the green hydrogen sector within Europe.

The UK it’s still a significant player compared to countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland. The UK’s GDP is around $3 trillion, which is bigger than the Netherlands’ $1 trillion and Poland’s $700 billion...

The belief that the UK is struggling financially post-Brexit often stems from sensationalist coverage in tabloids and media outlets that focus on negative aspects while overlooking broader economic realities.

Let's have a laugh at sites like Motley Fool and similar clickbait platforms that are quick to criticise ITM for what they call "poor revenue" projections for next year. What they fail to understand—or conveniently ignore—is that this is exactly what happens with bigger contracts. If ITM were focused on small, quick-turnaround contracts, sure, the revenue would show up in 6-12 months, and we'd see a boost in 2025. But with major projects like the 100 MW contract, the revenue doesn’t hit until the project is completed.

Looking ahead, 2026 could be massive for ITM. Given that each MW could generate between £0.5 million to £1 million in revenue, this contract alone could add £50 million to £100 million to ITM’s revenue by 2026. To put this in perspective, compared to the projected £20-25 million revenue for 2025, 2026 could see a 3x to 5x increase thanks to this one contract alone. This demonstrates ITM's shift from smaller, quick-turnaround projects to large-scale, high-revenue contracts that will drive significant growth in the coming years.

Reservations, like the 500 MW one we have secured with an unnamed partner, means that this partner has locked in future production capacity from ITM’s factory, with the reservation running until 2028. This implies that the project would need to kick off around 2025 to meet the completion deadline.

This large commitment affects ITM’s ability to take on other significant contracts from their current factory, as they must ensure they have the capacity to deliver on this 500 MW project. Dennis made it clear that they’re simply waiting for FIDs because, once approved, these contracts will secure substantial revenue and shape their production priorities. ITM is focused on managing its resources to prioritise high-margin, large-scale projects that will drive future growth.

Reluctantly reply to "contructivenews" for many reasons.. While it's true that securing the 500 MW contract would be a game-changer, it’s important to remember that ITM already has significant momentum. For instance, the 100 MW contract with Shell is just the beginning. Shell has ambitious green hydrogen targets—potentially reaching into the gigawatts—which means this 100 MW order is likely just one of many future orders. Additionally, ITM has other promising contracts, like the one with Hygen Energy, further bolstering its pipeline.

When it comes to factory reservations like the one for the 500 MW, companies typically secure these slots because they have a high level of confidence in proceeding to FID. The success rate of moving from reservation to FID is generally strong, especially with established partners like Shell.

As for the urgency mentioned, ITM has over £160 million in the bank, providing a solid cushion beyond 2025. This financial security means ITM doesn’t need to rush into smaller contracts just to keep cash flow positive. Instead, they can focus on securing large, high-margin contracts that may take 6-12 months longer but offer much more significant long-term value. Quality over speed is key when the company is in a strong cash position and has a clear strategic direction.

The FID for Shell’s 100mw took 6-7 months after the initial reservation. Given that the 100 MW project for Shell is set for completion by 2027 and the 500 MW factory reservation runs until 2028, it's reasonable to expect that the FID for the 500 MW could come within a similar 6 month timeframe. Or sooner.

Given that the £1.5 billion to £3.6 billion revenue is spread over 5 years. this translates to annual revenue of £300 million to £720 million. With a 50% profit margin, annual profits would be £150 million to £360 million. Applying a P/E ratio of 20, the market cap would range from £3 billion to £7.2 billion.. ITM ARE READY

To the idiots saying ITM isn’t getting any sales: Dennis has clearly spelled it out. They’re literally waiting on the 500 MW FID and the UK government’s 5 GW green hydrogen target. Even conservatively, if ITM secures just 2 GW of that target, plus the 500 MW and 100 MW contracts already in place, we're looking at £1 billion to £2 billion in revenue from the 2 GW alone, spread over 5 years. Add the 500 MW (£250-£500 million), the 100 MW (£50-£100 million), and other contracts ITM will likely secure, and the total potential revenue could easily reach £1.55 billion to £3.6 billion over the next 5 years. The numbers are clear—ITM is positioned for significant growth, so the idea that they aren't making sales is just nonsense.

500 MW Contract: Securing the 500 MW contract would be transformative for ITM. Assuming typical project revenue of £0.5 million to £1 million per MW, this contract could potentially bring in £250 million to £500 million in future revenue. Even though revenue would be realised over several years, the market would likely price in this growth, significantly boosting ITM's valuation.

100 MW Contract with Shell: The 100 MW contract, to be completed by 2027, further reinforces ITM's credibility and backlog. This contract alone could contribute an additional £50 million to £100 million in revenue, positioning ITM as a leader in large-scale green hydrogen projects.

UK’s 5 GW Green Hydrogen Target: The UK government aims to install 5 GW of electrolyzer capacity by 2030. Given ITM's leading position in the UK hydrogen market, it's highly likely they will secure a significant portion of these contracts. If ITM captures even 20% of this target (1 GW), it could translate into £500 million to £1 billion in future revenue, solidifying their market leadership.

UK Government Plans: The Labour Party could announce specific hydrogen targets and related contracts as part of their policy platform, potentially as early as late 2024, after their annual conference.

If we secure the 500 MW contract and benefits from strong UK government support, I believe the company's valuation could rise to between £1 billion and £1.5 billion. This figure reflects the anticipated future revenue from the 500 MW project, potential new contracts driven by the UK's 5 GW green h2 target by 2030, and overall bullish investor sentiment towards hydrogen's growing importance in the energy sector.

The market often prices in future growth, especially when a company is expected to play a crucial role in a government-backed initiative. If investors believe ITM will be a key player in meeting the UK's hydrogen goals, they could push the valuation up to this range.

Given these factors, I think the share price could reach this level, around £1.66 to £2.50 per share, by late 2024 or early 2025. This timing aligns with when the market might start seeing more concrete progress on these contracts and broader industry developments.

In their latest podcast video, starting at 22 minutes and 25 seconds, you'll discover everything about CHRONOS. To summarise, it's a 'game-changing' next-generation, high-capacity performance stack platform set to be unveiled in 2024.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pMMK2VuhUg&t=1347s&ab_channel=InvestorMeetCompany

In simpler terms, ITM Power could potentially turn a profit now if they scaled back on their investments in expansion and innovation. However, that would mean sacrificing their long-term growth and market potential. By choosing to invest heavily in R&D and product development, even at the expense of short-term profitability, ITM Power is positioning itself for significant growth and success in the future...

Increasing losses are due to heavy investment in expansion and innovation, ie the latest plug and play, and the forthcoming game-changing stack called Chronos. While revenue is on the rise, the company is spending more on research, development, and scaling up production, leading to larger losses. This investment phase is akin to what pioneering companies like Tesla experienced in their early days, where significant spending on growth and technology development temporarily outweighed revenue. In essence, ITM Power's current losses reflect a strategic choice to prioritise long-term growth and market leadership over short-term profitability. @dairentaylor

Are you assuming that Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Nel ASA aren't selling because their stock prices aren't moving? That's nonsense. The reasons stock prices aren't budging are broader: high bank interest rates, the war in Russia, and the aftermath of the last rapid rise. Growth stocks like ITM Power are naturally impacted by these factors. Once bank interest rates drop, we could see a re-rate back towards £1. It's frustrating, but the current market conditions don't reflect ITM's underlying business activities and strategic deals.

Have you been keeping up to date? ITM Power has been signing deals, such as the recent partnership with Hygen and a notable sale in Japan. They are also working on a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) for a multi-100 MW project. Can you list other PEM electrolyser companies and their sales compared to ITM? It's not accurate to say ITM isn't selling. I agree the stock price isn't budging, but ITM is positioning itself well with these deals. Many companies are planning for rapid growth between 2025-2027, supported by government subsidies.

Did you read the article or just the headline. Linde have simply said the use of PEM's to create hydrogen won't be profitable for another 5-7 years. Why do you think government's are piling money in as subsidies. I think you are forgetting ITM aren't creating hydrogen, we are manufacturing PEMs which is certainly profitable here and now. I think the markets view is ITM will be profitable within the next 1.5-2 years, followed by yearly rapid expansion.