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Hi

Neither do I!!

And I don't ever remember the BOD saying they wouldn't do another one, why would a listed entity say that?? Hence would like to see where it was said and very happy to be proved wrong if the BoD did say somewhere they would not do any more equity fundraisings to make acquisitions. It was one of the major reasons they listed.... as far as I can see the main reason for the price drop is the huge drop in price of gas, which appears to be well over done, but given that and the recent placing that soaked up all of of the ii appetite for shares we are now in a bit of a demand vacuum, hence any sells dragging it down.

Can someone point to where the BoD directly said they would not do any equity raisings anymore? Would like to see/hear exactly what they said at the time and see how it compares to the latest fundraise.

Natural gas has dropped from c, $9+ to under $2 today, in the last 6 months. When it was at its peak DEC hit about 1.44 in intraday trading. I think despite the hedging there is a direct correlation between Nat gas price and DEC share price. Feels like DEC has a trading range of 90p to 145p (i.e. a 55p range) which is related to the nat gas price. So Nat gas fallen 80% from its high, and that would take the price down to £1 from high of £1.44 a few months back following the same % decline in the 55p trading range. Add in a placing at 1.05p upsetting some PIs (not the long term instituions who took part who appear to be just holding) and triggering stop losses/downward trend algo trading and here we are. Feels like probably need nat gas to rise and a Q1 trading update showing profits and at some point hedge financial instrument mark to market profits (even though irrelevant in reality) and this will hopefully rise again. I hope so as it is my largest holding by far. In the meantime I am reinvesting the divis at these low prices and swapping into ISA and SiPP and getting a lot more shares in those given the low price, so more of the income tax shielded. Good luck and all my opinion, DYOR.

Jeffries has downgraded DEC from Buy to Hold this morning, price target 1.10. First downgrade for a very long time?

That IC piece says the divi may have topped out becuase it has reduced to 4.375c from 4.38c last quarter. The divi is exactly the same, they just rounded the previous one up to 4.38 rather than 4.375. You couldn't make it up, I genuinely believe these short news articles are now written by AI bots and hardly checked over before being issued, to say the divi has decreased is just plain wrong and really poor reporting.

Agreed a great and thorough presentation. These guys really know their stuff and are very happy to put all their research and assumptions out there. Even if you assume $1bn less in dividends and this goes to closing down wells then still potential for stable returns here for many years, without any further acquisitions. DYOR

TSR calc assumes that all divis are reinvested in the equity and so gives an overall Total Shareholder Return based on that assumption. The TSR of DEC is very good on that basis. Have a read of the Alliance Press report on this site that has just come out, they have no clue how to assess or report on this company, just repeat total loss widens several times, no mention of free cash flows and excellent and reliable divi payments, just lazy reporting, probably by an AI bot.....

This share has sadly become one of those where you are relieved the pain ends for the day at 4.30pm. Simply cannot believe the drop here in the last 3 months, even with macro headwinds feels like a lot of small stop losses and algos triggering an ongoing spiral. Been some interesting large buys well above the spread in last 2 days, not sure what that is all about but hopefully good news.

The general rule on M&A activity is to carry on business as usual as if the acquisition or disposal is NOT going to happen, as there are so many variables that could halt a transaction closing. As such, I think they carried on with share buy backs as it was the right thing to do at the time, given the amount parity with the dollar. When it was much clearer the transaction was close to completing, they halted the share buy backs (which were buys on open market, not from major shareholders) and focused on the best way to finance the acquisition opportunity, which was an accelerated book build based on conversations with major shareholders who had the appetite. Given that transaction has now happened, I doubt we will see much more buy back action. If it hadn't happened, and the best thing was to continue share buy backs, that is what they would have been doing in current climate. It was a large fund raise, so probably soaked up a lot of demand for the shares since the fundraise, and some institutions may have said they would support it to get the deal done, but may have had to thin out their holding post transaction as may be overweight a bit, but wanted to show shareholder support to an excellent mgt team doing what they say they will do. Given in a close period until 21 March, I would hope there would be some Director buys at this level as soon as they are able!

They just did a large equity rasie at a relatively small discount to the price which was easily placed in a 24 hr accelerated book build - which institutions are unsatisfied??

I am not sure any of the institutions who bought in at 1.05 will be taking a daily/weekly view on whether 1.05 was a good price, they will be looking years out. DEC must feel like they cannot win, get a kicking from PIs when they do an institutional book build previously and then when they do another with a retail strip to satisfy their grumpy PI shareholders at a relatively small discount to the prevailing price at the time of the deal (not the recent highs) it feels like it is those small shareholders that probably set stop losses at £1 and now price falling continuously due to small shareholders selling and algos triggering. No large shareholders have sold out, apart from those that have needed to thin out a little as may not be able to hold over 5% etc. People on other chat sites been complaining it was all rushed and felt wrong. They would have done months of negotiations and due diligence on that latest deal. They would have had non-specific discussions with large shareholders about appetite for supporting an equity raise for a decent transaction. Then, when DD completed and deal ready, they would have brought those institutions inside for the absolute minimum time possible in order to do the book build, normally only 24 to 48 hrs as institutions hate being brought inside (I.e. cannot trade the share) for any longer than that. Massive drop in gas prices and concerns over war, economies, inflation and now banking bad debts and here we are at just under £1 but the divi is rock solid thanks to their excellent heding policy. Feels like PIs want to complain which ever way they do it

Won't DEC have a greatly improved cash inflow at these gas price levels - as the taxes they have to pay are based on spot price rather than hedged price?

Surely ASBO??

Yes the market certainly seems to be disagreeing with them. Post a good CMD, positive broker notes, great results and an increase in the 2022 divi the share price is dropping 2p even before the probable ex div drop of 3p tomorrow. Shame this stock is now even more unloved, but for those of us re-ivesting divis into shares it is an opportunity

I very much hope you are both right!
I assume that was a large 4.6m sell earlier today and may have been holding the price down a bit, never a good sign on the day of the CMD update...

A good update today and some real positives there, hopefully see an uptick in price over coming weeks, but I fear DEC has had a complete re-rating to the downside by c. 20% based on recent news and approach to methane emissions
and the oil and gas sector going forwards, even if it is one of the good guys in the transition to clean energy. I fear the days of 120p+ may be over and this is now a great dividend share which can still give a fantastic return if you consistently reinvest those divis in the shares to increase your TSR. Not sure about any longer term capital gain in the share price, I hope I am proved very wrong....

Look at their Aug 21 presentation on their website, it sets out the total liabilities (c. $17bn I think) and the timeframe for settling them as the debt gets repaid from free Cashflow and so there is more cash for closing out the Wells. It is all set out clearly and openly by DEC in their presentations.

Yes needed that RNS, Nov 17 was starting to feel like a long way off given recent COP26 news. DEC should shout loud about how their actions are actually supporting long term transition in the most efficient way given the sunk cost to the environment.

Could this be an opportunity to pick up gas well portfolios at even lower prices? DEC will incur marginal costs to increase monitoring and minor repairs through its existing workforce. Others who have left their gas portfolios pretty much dormant may want to sell up cheaply rather than ramp up monitoring/repair costs for gas fields that aren't their focus? Just a thought

Should have a trading update out next week (29/10 last year), which should reflect some of the selling into the market at these enhanced prices for unhedged volume, could be interesting.