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I thought it was decent, in line with my expectations. 6 consecutive months of increased sales, in line for over 200m in revenue by end of the year. Several tenders cooking away too.
Could be worse, could be like the avacta RNS - another 'partner' announcement but still no approved test and still no sales!!
Agree, i have no interest in taking a rushed vaccine. Perhaps give it to those near end of life first, or the very vulnerable. If it does have long term health consequences then it wont affect those groups as much compared to children and younger adults.
I've done a rough calculation a few months back.
£120m worth of orders, £40m / 8m tests are yet to be delivered (doesn't specify if produced or not, I suspect not hence the language used), this will take at least all of Junes production and I imagine most of July to fulfill @ 4m / month
£5 / test, at 4m production thats £20m revenue a month. So from august until 1st March next year which is roughly 12m of covid related production, another potential 28m tests / £140m revenue - this excludes the new tests being released in June, whether they're produced in addition, instead of etc and assumes they are all sold. Profit was estimated at 50% (but exc logistics) Production may be increased to 8m from July onwards.
Current revenue £120m, plus possible £140m. I'd say at least £100m in profit is likely. More if production is increased and all tests are sold. Sets the company up nicely for the future, and the inevitable future waves / next pandemic.
I think part of the issue is total of £120m revenue to 1st June, I guess some investors thought it would be double that. UK contract ends in October. July will be spent to fulfill outstanding orders. Currently generating £20m a month. I'm not panicking, a 2nd wave is coming. If Govt renew contract for 6 months in October, and I reckon Graham and the team are on it, it will shoot right back up. US market will be a key one, if that brings in another £5m a month from July then SP will get back up to the £4 level imo. August RNS will be the litmus test, will show US orders, South America and if UK renew contract for 6 months. If all that comes in, along with filling the 10m test production, SP will smash past £6. If no reliable vaccine by autumn, then demand will rocket.
Only the day traders are selling right now, those who can add are buying/holding
Ghia - sounds like they're clearing a backlog of orders. If they can't deliver within a reasonable time frame then they won't get the order. Currently producing 8m / £40m of tests a month. £80m orders waiting to be delivered, production wise we are likely full until end of July, unless capacity is increased before then.
Many countries in South America, middle East need tests right now so quicker we get capacity the better, and I reckon the US will be our next big customer esp with the new test.
Well theres 65m shares in float. Price £3 valuing company at £180m.
Fag packet ways of valuing a company without knowing its current P&L is to take its gross revenues over a trading year, and multiply by 0.5. Currently this is £120m. By end of the year, this is likely to be AT LEAST £240m in total, so imo that supports an SP of min £1.80. Potentially, revenue could be £720m, which will mean an SP of £5.53. I think both of those figures completely undervalue ncyt but shows we're in the right ball park I suppose at the moment
Yeah, nearly half the world is a customer.
Even if we're only charging £5 a test, and producing only 4m a month now, that's still £20m revenue a month.
Sales of £120m so far, £40m of which have been delivered, £80m will take 4 months to fulfill at current rates, or by end of July if we're now operating at 10m test production a month. In future that's £50m a month possible revenue - assuming new style tests are same rrp, and exc mobile test lab sales.
2nd half of year it looks like production will be switched to the new style tests, will undoubtedly open new markets and allow larger orders from countries who have limited supply of reagents.
UAE, Saudi Arabia are excellent potential markets.
The Mobile test equipment will be incredibly useful for care homes, gp practices, professional sports the world over.
Absolutely astonishing this hasn't hit £4 again. If production tails off to near zero in 12m time because everyone is now vaccinated, that's still an additional (albeit extremely pessimistic) £120m revenue on top of the current £120m at average of just 2m tests/month sold from now on, rising to £720m+ if 10m tests produced. I figure it will be somewhere in between. Revenue discounts sales from other services and expansion. A 50% profit figure was quoted per test, so that's anywhere from £120m profit to £400m, pre corp tax.
I thought it was a great RNS. French market was known about before, one market out of hundreds
New products available in June/ July, perfectly in time for the far more disruptive 2nd wave given BJ can't shut the economy down for a 2nd time.
RNS was excellent imo, since end of Feb which is when the world had started to take it seriously that's £120m in total sales! South America, Africa are going to be huge markets over next 6 months. Could well be half a billion by end of year.
It's balls
On clinical studies, NCYT tests are used as a comparison to verify other tests as ours is the most accurate.
The tests are fine, it's the swab that's at fault. A.poor swab means no test would work.
They're desperate for NCYT not to shoot back up
The problem is impatient 'investors' expecting a price double every month then sell to happy buyers who can't believe their luck. Then after another RNS they'll buy back in, get impatient again and sell. And repeat. If no one sold, price would not go down, simple supply and demand
An increase to 10m would be lovely, but I think realistically it will still be around the 4m mark. NCYT wouldn't be promising orders until the production capacity was there, given this is only recent it will only be achievable from may/june onwards they'll be actively pushing recently. Either way a nice increase in SP will appear by end of July imo
Thats a good idea, I'll need to do a bit of research on to what this mobile testing kit is and how it works before contacting graham again, I know he'll be a busy man. Is this the new test thats been mentioned that doesn't require the same chemicals to test the the pcr uses at the moment?
Anyone speak spanish?
https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/552710/genesig__Real-Time_PCR_Coronavirus__covid-19__CE_IVD_Kit__Biololife_Technologies_S.A._de_C.V._.pdf
Anything there that we didn't already know WRT to mexico? I remember something posted a while back about an order.
Are we also partnered with Cigalah group in saudi arabia? Has that been confirmed in an RNS?
And another link, just out of interest for competition, for recent WHO emergency use approvals
https://www.who.int/diagnostics_laboratory/200522_eul_sars_cov2_product_list.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220301979
Published on thursday
Objectives
The aim of this study was to evaluate the performances of the Coris COVID-19 Ag Respi-Strip.
Study design. We performed a comparison study by testing nasopharyngeal samples with RT-qPCR and antigen rapid test.
Coris COVID-19 Ag Respi-Strip should not be used alone for COVID-19 diagnosis.
Not had a proper read through of the article as I've had a few gins and theres lots of big words, but it appears to compare one of these rapid test kits against our gold standard PCR testing.
Long and short of it, the quick kits are only 50% accurate, and still require proper testing with PCR.
So pointless.
And great for us.