Member Info for jazzyjim

"Do you think a raise would not be attempted if the vote is no. "

Do bears still poo in the park !

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So it is really a vote between the AAL deal and a raise. If you think the raise would succeed vote no.

...and as for investors attempting to stay invested, I totally support that aim.

I don't think it will happen, but you are having a significant effect and that's pretty damn impressive
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Do you think a raise would not be attempted if the vote is no. The IIs, BoD will just lose everything . Or do you think it will be attempted but fail. Really?

'Managers live in the area. I live in the area. We're always available. All the community consultations for the planning process – I went to every single one of them and was there all day.'
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Yes you liked the locals support when they were useful. Now they are not. Are you still available Chris? Some locals would like to meet you.

"Jazzy we will see who's right - but II will have already held discussions with the BOD and so far it looks as if their not willing to put their hands in their pockets any further otherwise we would have heard?
likewise with the QIA if there was a viable proposal we should hear... no?"
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The BOD are backing the AAL offer so we will hear nothing that might be detrimental to that. Basically they won't be trying very hard currently and we will not hear anything unless there is a no vote. Then it is a different situation and QIA etc will have to consider if a cash raise is netter than Admin

"You are planning on voting no. Administrators will have already been briefed and lined up as a back up plan.
What i cant understand is why SXX have just told the market that there is no backup plan and signaled to Anglo that we need their offer desperately. If i was now anglo I would just wait it out and pick up the pieces out of Admin.
also all these people saying why dont they ask PI to invest - if you really think PI can cough up $5/600m you are deluded.
atb and hope it works out, but if i was in the AAL M&a team i'd seriously consider pulling my offer"
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If you think that the II's currently holding will just let it go into admin without putting up some of the $600m then you are deluded. QIA already proposed this. There will also be existing PI's and new PI's seeing the same upside that AAL can see.

"I tend to agree with you John my niggling feeling is that until this aal offer I believed in CF !
I know we don’t know what CF and the bod have been offered going forward but this deal is so bad that I do worry that they genuinely feel this is the only way. I know that goes against the rhetoric here but that’s how I feel.

If this really could be a quid a share even 50 p would he really give up on that given the volume of shares he has. ???? "
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It can't be £1 or even 50p a share now. No matter what route is taken it would be equivalent to a massive dilution. 20p a share in 5 years time would be more realistic and that maybe helps explain his desire to get into bed with AAL. He gets his 5.5p a share right now and a share of the 19 mill blood money and an unknown number of millions for basically a non job with AAL as a payment for destroying SXX.

"Chilting, that's your opinion and of course you're entitled to it. But I strongly disagree. There is plenty more the board could have done and should have done. And there is still plenty they could do but they have run out of time. That's grossly negligent at best. They never tried another raise because their "experts" told them it wouldn't work. Well you don't know until you try"

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Yes, negligent or worse. They have their 20 pieces of silver and have not been working in our interests for some time. No chance of a raise succeeding? Well the QIA were pushing for one if the alternative was administration. There was no chance of administration despite the BOD trying the scare tactics. The II's would never have allowed that. Why would they lose for example, 150m for the sake of providing 50m and gaining a large % of the company in the process. That's before we even consider the PI's invested and in a position to put in extra to save their investment. Then there would be many new investors given the potential upside. now there is also the PI's who sold out at 5.5p and might like getting back in at 2.5p in a raise. In short there would be a wall of money in a raise if admin was on the cards.

"I had asked the burning question regarding self-funding and why we were never asked. Essentially, their historical data shows that there's minimal appetite and capacity for the sheer volume of capital needed among PIs. Furthermore another equity raise would have negatively impacted the share price - at it's most vulnerable point. A lot of us - including myself - would have been happy to contribute"

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1. Historical data? This is a unique situation
2. Minimal appetite amongst PI's? In the current situation it may be the only option to salvage something. Other new investors would come in too.
3. A raise would be negative on the share price in the short term for sure but better in the long term.
4. They are happy to give the company away for 400m. A raise at 2.5p for the 400m would leave the existing shareholders with 30% of the company.

Absolutely well said -no other Govt would have let this get to this point-we really do know now that we are working class cannon fodder.
My dad is 95 and a WWII vet- I quote him re Sirius “The German Govt would never let this destroy the local people who supported and believed in this project”
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Your dad's service to this country is much appreciated. Pity there are no heroes left in this country now. He is correct, you just have to look at the number of German medium sized locally owned companies with a very large proportion of local shareholders. Gov could have easily saved this by guaranteeing the bonds to unlock the entire funding. Instead they destroyed thousands of local people and removed 10's of millions of spending power from the local economy, spending power that would have continued for generations. To protect the taxpayer??? AAL are following the timeframe set out by Sirius and don't see major risks. If they were concerned by the construction risks they could have insisted that Sirius raise and complete before they would guarantee. The sp would have been much higher and the raise 100% successful under these terms.

Problem is the water
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You might like to tell the shale oil producers in US about your massive water problem. They deal with millions of barrels of water each day though so would probably just laugh at you.

Agreed, I posted before with an even lower raise value than your 3.5 p and it still works out better than the current offer. Time for the board to explain why this was not seriously considered. They believed they could get debt funding with next to no construction done. They should be 100% confident of debt funding after construction well advanced. Potential upside for new investors at 2.5 - 3p would be huge. Couldn't get this placing away? Really???

Equity financing, well, given that the equity was trashed it would need to raise almost three times current equity (@3.5p), and still require a substantial discount and need underwriting.
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A strategic partner would have taken 75% of the company for 300 mill or less anyway and that would have been a good result. The equity raise is a bit worse but better than the takeover outcome.

Exactly, acid test...try it and see, only the BOD's do not obviously want to 'Try' , that is the issue here.

The issue also imo, is that they the company and financiers do not wish to have a large contingent of PI's, maybe JPM's viewpoint in reality?
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They won't try because it would likely succeed and that is the end of their plans. Come out of hiding and explain to the owners why it is not preferable to the existing takeover.

'Straight from sxx website. However I don’t believe they are taking into account the extra willingness of PIs to invest in a raise if it’s the last option for them.'
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It is the only option for them to salvage something here. There would be plenty of new investors at 2-3p as well. It is the only way forward. Why has this not been seriously pursued. That is the only question I need answered.

A rights issue is the way - the only way - that preserves sholder value. Fraser shouldn't be selling out to his Aussie mates.
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An offer at 2-3p is the only way to go to preserve shareholder value. It needs to be explained why this was not considered.

Capital value $12 Bn and a share price of 33p (keeping maths simple) would mean 36 billion shares in issue. Currently 7 billion.

So the company could issue 29 billion shares to raise the $600M required to get through the next two years. thereafter debt will fund the project. That means they could issue shares at 2p to raise the $600M.
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Most sensible post in a long time. I would participate at 2p for sure so think it would be oversubscribed. It is better than the alternative anyway.

"Gina will just write it off. You have to remember it’s a lot of money bug fir her equivalent of us investing about £2500. It’s pocket money"

She will not be buying, all she has to do is wait. If it goes into admin her money was secured in the assets so will get it back. More likely will try to buy at that point.

"So, you think a new investor is going to pay above market price for equity?
Who are you kidding?"

The 400 mill for 50% was more of an example. The point was that if the partner could borrow at a cheap rate to complete that would provide a boost against the dilution.

They couldn't buy 50% on the market without the price being significantly higher as well so they may pay above the current market rate.

"OK.....
lets say company equity worth 100m.
Company requires new cash for investment, and can't borrow it.
Lets say they require 100m for investment.
Simply put that would equate to 50% dilution for holders
i.e. you own 50% less of the company."

In the case for SXX if we get a strategic partner putting in say 400 mill for 50% of company there will be a huge hit on dilution but we would have the 400 mill to further de-risk the project and more importantly if they can borrow the rest relatively cheaply it would give a boost to the sp.

"I don’t see this one going to the wall and believe a takeover / JV is likely. Most invested here are significantly Down and i for one will be waiting it out"

Could you run through a takeover/JV scenario that doesn't leave existing shareholders with massive dilution or indeed being wiped out?