Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No problem at all. Let's see if they reply.
JV news is 'soon' but that could be viewed by individuals differently in terms of their own interpretation of what 'soon' means. I personally think from my own interpretation we are very close now to an update of news.
Https://twitter.com/Synergiaenergy/status/1656266626440757248
There was definitely interest and buyers yesterday which could be :
1. Taking positions in advance of imminent news?
2. Certain people made aware of matters concluding?
3. Momentum traders reading into positive charting signals
Whatever the case we will know very soon the JV outcome. How the market takes it will be very interesting. I am just hoping that its some cash above the free two well carry.
Thats based upon gas sales to EME. I suspect the deal value based upon an NPV and confirmed CPR will be worth $40-$50m to EME. That's for a complete full sale of the 8.5% stake.
Gives a share value 6-7p, so a 6x bagger from todays price.
Interesting wording in the CORO RNS regarding Mako farm in. Drag and tag clauses would suggest that both CORO and EME would have no say in any structured deal and could end up having ALL or PART of their share of licence as part of the deal. Either way this is a positive and should generate EME cash when a deal is concluded.
"Coro, which holds a 15.0% interest in the Duyung PSC, may participate pro rata in the farm-down process as various drag and tag along clauses exist in the Joint Operating Agreement. Coro may also entertain a full exit, depending on the terms offered."
Duyung .....GSA this quarter. Looks like a farm down as well. Maybe applicable to EME regarding their interest.
Front End Engineering Design (“FEED”) studies for the Mako development project is progressing and on schedule.
o Negotiation of the key terms of the Mako gas sales agreement between a Singapore buyer and the Indonesian
regulator (SKK Migas) is expected to be finalised during the June quarter, with the Mako gas field being an important
strategic gas asset for both countries.
o The Mako gas field is the largest undeveloped and fully appraised gas field in the West Natuna Basin. Gas is exported
from the basin by pipeline to Singapore. The Competent Person Report commissioned as part of the IPO late last year
estimated the Mako gas field would generate gas sales of approximately US$2.4 billion net to Conrad.
o Conrad has engaged a global investment bank with a proven track record in similar transactions has been engaged to
lead a farm-down process for the divestment of a portion of Conrad’s interest in the Duyung Production Sharing
Contract (“PSC”). Bids are expected to be received during the June quarter and the industry response to date has been
encouraging.
So the rhetoric and strategy from PG may have changed. Now that will not suit everyone here in terms of their target price and the potential valuation assumptions that have been thrown around but consider these points.
1. PG maybe low balling the recoverable/proven numbers, for a reason. You don’t show all your hand in any corporate negotiations straight away. He’s put a marker down rightly or wrongly.
2. There maybe pressure from the ONHYM to expedite and speed up development. That needs deep pockets and PRD may not be the right partner to deliver that.
3. PG might be at a point in life when it’s time to retire gracefully and remove the stress. We’ve seen the time wells take to drill and the general world wide shortage of inventory and associated services/materials.
4. Delivering sensible upfront cash flow now might enable advancement of our other projects and quickly. So a return from Morocco delivers returns from Trinidad and Ireland. Speculate to accumulate perhaps.
We can all speculate, and rightly so, on any potential outcome but what is abundantly clear is that our CEO is thinking some sort of exit strategy/royalties for Morocco and that could be literally only a few months away.
Does the geology from MOU-3 and testing from MOU-1 still need to deliver? Of course but we’ll know within 6 weeks what impact that is going to have on any commercial transaction and price. Everything else is just background noise.
Sit back, wait and see and hopefully we’ll all be rewarded. One thing for sure we won’t be at 8.5p when a transaction is finalised.
"IOG intends to appoint an additional independent Non-Executive Director once the Blythe H2 production well is onstream."
Once ...is onstream.
I’ve listen to the podcast several times and it’s fairly clear to me, once again as we’ve been told in previous RNS’s, that the for sale sign is up.
However colour is now being added quite openly to a potential transaction price. 40BCF equals 200m (not sure whether PG meant £ or $).
Who’s to say we prove up more? 80BCF becomes 400m. Simple maths I know but get my drift.
Put quite simply has PG laid out his marker price ? For any bidders you want it, that’s what you pay. Clever or naive you decide.
This could now get very interesting.
That's all this is a 'technical delay' that was planned in the drill. They have an incredibly experienced team at the helm and for them this is just BAU.
Have not reached TD yet so all still in play. MM's just want shares to make money from you.
Technical breakout or any rumours from the rig circling?
No smoke without fire.....
"The farm out discussions are ongoing and the Company does not anticipate that the C-77H artificial lift implementation will have an impact on the farm out process being concluded."
No implication on concluding discussions. That might shut a few people up.
The jet pump equipment will have sufficient capacity to lift not only the fluids from the two currently producing re-frac zones, but also the fluids associated with the original four fracked zones that are currently isolated with a bridge plug. Consequently the Company plans to remove the bridge plug and re-connect the four original zones when the well is re-completed with the jet pump artificial lift system.
Looks like it will enable production from 6 zones when then installed. Perhaps thats where the previous quoted 4mmscfd is being derived from.
All looking good.
We know that the on the 30 Sept 22 (RNS) that SYN initiated the farm out process with Moyes & Co. We know that on 1 Dec 22 (RNS) that discussions were underway with potential farm in partners. We know that on 27 February 23 (RNS) that due diligence and detailed technical and commercial discussions are ongoing with potential partners. The JV process has therefore been ongoing for lets say 5 months, allowing for the month of October 22 for Moyes & Co to prepare their prospectus and reach out to interested parties. Some might say "what on earth has been going on for 5 months." For anyone who has bought and sold businesses, I have, this is not an uncommon time frame. I suspect we are into the detail of commercial terms now, which will also factor in certain legal convenants. Hence Roland's comment of "sooner than that" when I asked in February were we looking at a further 2-3months.
Either way the JV is still in play until we are told otherwise. When it drops........let's see :-)