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ONHYM will be driving and deciding on all these discussions. Perhaps with both Char and PRD discoveries they see synergies to monetise quickly and get them both on the same page.

Thank you Keith. Superbly written and explained as always.

Sit tight and hold on to those shares.

Jimmy 23 …..I posted both part 1 and 2 yesterday, written by GRH. See thread below

Lancygeo…. I’ve thought the very same thing. Why would you be so bold as to come up with a naming convention like that if you didn’t have courage of conviction or privy to certain data that made you confident of such a name tag.

Makes you think doesn’t it?

Where is Michael Caine when you need him?...PART TWO

Morning all

Matt... you have hit the nail on the head...with a very big hammer

The figures you mention are for the EXAMPLE (my word) volumes only

As I posted, that represents 13% of the LOW CASE volumetrics

If you apply it to the FULL LOW case volumetrics...

you get over £1BN enterprise value

IE you come back to the £4 per share figure ... of course I then chose to HALVE that for sake of sanity

Now scale it up to reflect just the PMEAN figure...

((((yes...please widen the SS columns or check your calculators!))))

THAT is why I hold volume

Of course...unlike SO MANY E&Ps... PRD HAS NETT CASH...NO DEBT!!!

As I keep saying... Always focus on Enterprise Values!

As to valuations of other E&Ps... I would ask folk to do the NETT math...look at the nett of INFRASTRUCTURE cost figures...

Even the much vaunted Cove ... nice price that we received on takeover (Dr Staley again!) was massively penalised as to price... because of the enormous costs of sub surface and infrastructure...

I have not looked of late but...last time I did, the purchasers of Cove had taken well over 10 years from purchase to flowing ... and had more than doubled the purchase price on build out works the old NPV has an effect

BUT the purchasers had money to do the build out for small outfits ...infrastructure build out requirements are value killers... funders have such companies by the nuts and act accordingly

PRD can pump gas and GENERATE GOOD CASF FLOW ASAP... and PG told me across the table...face to face... that that was his firm intention and belief

There are few pieces of real work in E&P I happen to consider PG one of them...the fact that he has others on his tiny BoD is quite remarkable the fact they all have skin in the game...well make up your own minds

The nett to PRD position is the best I have ever found in E&P (and yes I track such stuff)

BTW...the running room at PRD is 'none too shabby'... the residual 7200 sq kms might not be barren... LOL other E&Ps will recognise that very quickly...if not already

ATB

Where is Michael Caine when you need him?...PART ONE

Afternoon all...

I said the other day that I would have a go at making the recent RNS a bit more ‘accessible’

Well....this is it...FWIW:

That RNS (18th March) is the FIRST time we have seen PRD give us more detailed information about what Guercif could really be worth to shareholders.

The RNS fills in many of the missing piece of the jigsaw for PRD/Morocco.

We knew how much gas the company is targeting and now we know the value to PRD of much smaller example volumes of gas.

NB: It is really important to stress that these are EXAMPLE volumes

If we put the two together, we get a giant sized clue ... And we can estimate the value of the type of large discoveries that PRD are actually expecting (remember Paul’s grin!).

The following is my own back of an envelope ‘try’ (timing?) at valuing Guercif using the PRD supplied data...

I hope it starts a conversation here ... as I am sure that others will be able to improve on this.

Here we go...

So, we start with the value to PRD of a smallish EXAMPLE gas volume

That would result in the extraction of 3.65 BCF per year over 10 years... again, that is an illustrative period

This value (nett of operating and capital costs ...Opex and Capex) is given as $19.7m per year and that is AFTER deducting ONHYM’s 25% share.

That is £14.17m per year (at FX: $1.39/£1).

You can express that as a figure of £3.88m for every ONE BCF (I am not making this stuff up)

That equates to 1.51 pence PER SHARE ...PER ONE BCF (with 257m shares in issue).

Now ...take the target figures we have been given as the estimates of ‘gross recoverable prospective resources’ in Guercif:

Low estimate ...279 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020)

Best estimate ...819 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020 and 20th January 2021)

High estimate ...1,823 BCF (RNS of 20th January 2021)

Now ...apply the 1.51 pence per share per BCF (which already has a deduction for ONHYM’s 25% share) and we get:

Low estimate discovery: £4.21 per share

Best estimate discovery: £12.37 per share

High estimate discovery: £27.52 per share

Decent figures ...but hang on

This is not the likely end valuation

Of course, downwards adjustments have to be made for:

NPV (the time value of money...it takes several years to extract the gas)

A super large find may mean some international exports where prices could be lower than Moroccan industrial gas prices. (the way things are going... post Biden... I am revising my gas price assumptions...upwards)

The possibility that not all of the “recoverable resources” can be recovered during the licence period or extensions thereof.

Tax in Morocco will have to be paid eventually.

Cost of Reserves Based Lending ... (or a partnering/farm deal) to finance further wells.

PRD will need to leave something worthwhile for the buyer.

But ... on the upside...

We've already been given an indication from PG in recent interviews of potential value. $150-$200m per 40 BCF. Now I am sure anyone that has done their research will know that what has been disclosed already in RNS's is indicating there is a whole lot more than 40BCF! Who knows what any monetised price will end up being. Updated CPR and flow tests will be the driver of that.

People have their own targets in mind, and so what. That is their prerogative. One thing for sure PG won't be entertaining a transaction for 15p!

Race to the finish anyone.....

28 June RNS states quite clearly CPR will come out at the same time as the new prospectus. The words used were "coming weeks."

Not long now.

I messaged Lonny last night and asked whether he could post any video of MOU4. And here we have it. Great to see!

GRH.,… there are a few others on here today casting FUD. To be expected. Always happy to hear rationale debate and discussion but unfortunately today sticks out like a sore **** with an agenda.

Anyone that has done their own research, due diligence and risk vs reward will know that current events are on the cusp of moving that call option value to substantially more than todays price.

Traders will trade, investors will hold and other individuals just work in dark shady circles. Anyone involved in this market for years will know what I’m on about.

Now how’s that drill bit turning……

Nick....100%. I am of the firm opinion that we are being circled and that conversations are no doubt on going with interested parties, although with PG holding his cards tight to his chest.

Prove up more and then we talk numbers.

Two more large 600,000 buy trades printed late from last night just landed. Large sums arriving.

I am with Keith on this. I think we have spudded already, pending OHNYM approval. I also think we'll get more indication of log readings from MOU-3 within the MOU-4 spud RNS. Double whammy.

So, we could be 5 days into MOU-4 drill and as per previous company announcements are targeting the basal

Jurassic target at approximately 1,200 metres. Not long to wait for results.

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

Throwing up surprises already 😉

Some may recall these statements from the RNS in March 2022. I wonder if our Asian exploration company are now liking what they see? And maybe ready to take over the reins?

“Agreements

The Company is pleased to announced that it has signed Confidentiality Agreements with a company based in the United Arab Emirates and an Asian exploration and production company to evaluate the exploration, appraisal and development opportunities in the area covered by the Guercif Petroleum Agreement.

Separately the Company has signed a Confidentiality Agreement with a company in the downstream sector in Morocco to work together to optimise the potential market for gas from the area covered by the Guercif Petroleum Agreement. “

I am going to suggest we have someone "circling" us and about to show their hand.

Wonder if someone is going to show their hand next week?

I am more than intrigued about the line in the last RNS.

"Accordingly, Novum Securities have received firm orders to buy 18,000,000 existing ordinary shares of no par value in the Company at a price of 10.5 pence each."

Now currently we have no idea who these firm orders were for, but what if they were from a very interested institution? Further, what if "said" institution has now also been buying on the open market. I do not buy the logic that the recent transfer of shares are being flipped.

What if Paul only raised what they needed too, in order to drill back to back and basically said to "said" institution, you can have 18m shares at 10.5p, but if you want anymore then they'll have to be at whatever market price dictates.

If my theory is correct, and I am not saying 100% it is, then these shares plus more may just be going into safe hands on the basis that they have seen or been told about the 'race to the finish.'

Wishing you a continued and speedy recovery Caterham. Life brings us knocks but it’s how we fight back that counts.

Your contribution to this board, as you can probably tell from all the posts, is so incredibly valued and welcome.

Stay in touch and hopefully very soon PRD will be paying us some very nice rewards.

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