Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Chemring and Qinetiq also both by c. 4%.
Goldman raises their TP to 1398p today.
Dick's Sporting Goods earnings due Thursday. After Footlocker's miss, a bad outcome from DKS could knock JD Sports once again.
HTTps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/the-british-king-of-trainers-takes-on-the-land-of-sneakers-9b0dbbf7?mod=hp_lead_pos8
(Needs subscription)
"This is just getting started.."
It may be so that "this is just getting started". Voleon have about $8bn in assets, have been around for more than 15 years, now use AI to identify opportunities. They seem tenacious, coming back repeatedly to attack their targets, as I found with one Spanish company they shorted. Usually, they start off with 0.5% or so, here their AI seems to be telling them to really go for it with JD, that is if it really is the case that they took a 1.8% position in one day, something that seems puzzling. Serious guys, not some backroom joint in Hackney.
Https://whalewisdom.com/short_position/holder/voleon-capital-management-lp
Moving to NY, as so many companies are already doing, would be the sensible thing to do rather than being stuck on this now crap provincial backwater.
Seeking alpha gives PER of 12.4 for Dick's and 21 for Foot Locker, btw. Nike 28.8. JD at 8.2?
In the US, Dick's Sporting Goods is at a 5-year high, Foot Locker is bobbing around a 6-month high, admittedly Nike is down about 15% from its September shock announcement that took down JD initially. JD have very recently confirmed a PBT of GBP 915m-935m which would now be a PER, according to Stockopedia, of only 8.2. Now I do appreciate the London market is utterly crap but why there has been a 40% fall in the SP beats me.
"A Norwegian-based alternative investment fund has bought a 5.3 per cent stake in the Cheltenham-based retailer, according to regulatory filings. It is understood that First Seagull considers Superdry to be ripe for a bid after a series of profit warnings over the past year drove down its share price. Sycamore Partners, an American private equity company, and Authentic Brands Group, which owns Ted Baker and Forever 21, are said to have Superdry on their radars."çç
(from The Times article)
Liam, it may be a dead brand on the UK high street but it obviously can't be a dead brand overseas, otherwise investors, particularly no-slouches Asian investors, would not have paid what they have for the IP in their respective territories.
The news prompted an immediate jump in Superdry shares of about a fifth and they closed up 7.7 per cent, or 1½p, at 21¼p last night. Sources suggested that the value of Superdry owned by a brand management company would be about £400 million to £600 million, compared with its present market cap of about £21 million. At their peak in early 2018 the company’s shares were just shy of £20, giving it a valuation above £1.7 billion.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hedge-fund-builds-stake-in-superdry-ppf03xxbj
99m shares.
"The new Nike ‘super shoe’ that was worn to shatter the world marathon record has sold out within minutes of going on sale, sparking online auctions of almost £600 for a pair.
Kenya’s Kelvin Kiptum used the new ‘Alphafly 3’ shoe to become the first man under 2hr 1min in an official race at the Chicago Marathon in October and, having gone on general sale only on Thursday morning for £284.99, the entire supply was bought up in just two minutes.
That in turn has prompted online traders to advertise the product at even more eye-watering prices. One seller has them listed on ebay at a ‘buy it now’ price of £589."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/athletics/2024/01/04/nike-super-shoes-flood-resale-sites-600-pounds-sold-out/
Nike, which has been given a $134 price target by Bernstein, is the firm's top pick for the next six months. Analysts said "December's guidance cut creates some opportunity for a short-term beat. In addition, "the market overreacted in slashing FY25 numbers," they wrote. "We expect to see positive revisions through the next few months as Fall 2024 growth looks better than expected. Meanwhile, the multi-year margin story is still intact, and we model ~20% EPS growth over the next 3 years."
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nike-a-top-pick-at-bernstein-but-adidas-cut-on-elevated-consensus-432SI-3267577
Taking account of the cash, the effective MC is way less than 5.5bn. This SP is crazy.
Yes. Milei cannot afford not to negotiate a substantial discount from the $16bn, the electorate will certainly expect that. In addition, it seems that the bond cannot simply be implemented by decree but must be approved by their Congress. This article talks of a 'long and difficult road ahead' in order to get the bond issue away.
"Lo cierto es que, en cualquiera de los casos, la aplicación de la idea que ayer anunció Javier Milei sobre una "Tasa Kicillof" para pagar el juicio por la manera en que se renacionalizó YPF en 2012, debe pasar por el Congreso y convertirse en una ley. Ninguna iniciativa tributaria puede ser implementada por decreto (incluso DNU), con lo que debe ser debatida en el Legislativo."
https://www.mdzol.com/dinero/2023/12/27/juicio-por-ypf-en-nueva-york-el-largo-dificil-camino-que-le-espera-la-tasa-kicillof-394642.html
Translation:
"The truth is that, in any case, the application of the idea that Javier Milei announced yesterday about a "Kicillof Tax" to pay the trial for the way in which YPF was renationalized in 2012, must go through Congress and become a law. No tax initiative can be implemented by decree (even DNU), so it must be debated in the Legislature."
The Peronistas are just waiting for Milei to be seen as giving away the country to foreign interests and 'vulture funds'. He has the right policies, Argentina does need shock treatment but he has to take the country with him.
Https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/urgent-recall-thousands-vacuums-sold-31686603
Outlook
For the Winter 2023/24 season, against a 21% increase in on sale seat capacity to 4.49m, the higher margin
per passenger Package Holiday mix of departing passengers is currently up by 2.6ppts. Although bookings
have been a little slower in recent weeks with average load factors currently 1.3ppts down on Winter
2022/23 at the same point, average pricing to date remains robust. With over 40% of Winter bookings
traditionally made during the January to March period, we currently remain on track to deliver Group profit
before FX revaluation and taxation for the year ending 31 March 2024 of between £480m and £520m, in line
with our previous guidance. This remains dependent on no material extraneous events in the balance of the
financial year.
Looking ahead, current seat capacity for Summer 2024 at 17.19m seats is approximately 12% higher than
Summer 2023. Bookings and pricing at this early stage are encouraging, with average load factors 2.0ppts
ahead of Summer 2023 at the same point.
Https://www.jet2.com/news/2023/11/Jet2_plc_announces_Interim_Results_for_2023
Jet2 plc, the Leisure Travel group (“the Group” or “the Company”) announces its unaudited interim results
for the half year ended 30 September 2023.
Group financial highlights Half year ended
30 September
2023
Unaudited
Half year ended
30 September
2022
Unaudited
Half year end
change
Revenue £4,407.4m £3,567.6m 24%
Operating profit £617.0m £516.6m 19%
Profit before FX revaluation and taxation* £664.6m £505.0m 32%
Profit before taxation £660.5m £450.7m 47%
Profit for the period after taxation £496.0m £356.0m 39%
Basic earnings per share 231.0p 165.9p 39%
Interim dividend per share 4.0p 3.0p 33%
* Further information on the calculation of this measure can be found in Note 3.
• Group operating profit increased by 19% to £617.0m (2022: £516.6m) and Group profit before foreign
exchange revaluation and taxation increased by 32% to £664.6m (2022: £505.0m).
• Against Summer 2022, seat capacity increased 7% and the business achieved an average load factor of
90.7% (2022: 90.7%) with higher margin per passenger Package Holiday mix of total departing passengers
up 4.9ppts to 70.8% (2022: 65.9%).
• Flight-only net ticket yield per passenger sector at £124.09 (2022: £105.00) was 18% higher than the
comparable period; the average price of a Jet2holidays package holiday also increased 11% to £855.
• Our operations were directly impacted by the broader disruption caused by the National Air Traffic Services
(“NATS”) failure, Rhodes wildfires and flooding in Skiathos which resulted in approximately £14.0m of lost
profitability.
• Total cash balance (including money market deposits) was £3,214.6m, an increase of 14% (2022:
£2,830.7m). Our Own Cash* (excluding customer deposits) of £2,121.2m increased by 8% (2022:
£1,968.6m).
• For the Winter 2023/24 season, against a 21% increase in on sale seat capacity to 4.49m, the higher margin
per passenger Package Holiday mix of departing passengers is currently up by 2.6ppts. Although bookings
have been a little slower in recent weeks with average load factors currently 1.3ppts down on Winter
2022/23 at the same point, average pricing to date
File:///C:/Users/tangl/Downloads/Jet2_plc_Interim_Results_2023.pdf