The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hydr - Agree with most of your summary. Only thing I’d challenge is your assumption that warehousing has been cheap lately. I know from personal experience that large scale warehousing has been very competitive fuelled by the pandemic home shopping boom. Not that I think it changes the principles you make.
Derampers having a Friday afternoon blow out? Bitcoin down 17% in a month MARA down 37% and Argo down 7% in the same period. Well placed for a bitcoin recovery and further realisation of expansion plans. Happy to grab another 10k here today below 60p. Have a great weekend all...
NC - You joined today... :)
Excellent - added another 10k.
Surprised at SP movement this morning given Bitcoin. Bit conflicted as I'm obviously happy it's holding up and this bodes well for ability to catch the wave on any bitcoin recovery, but I had thought I might have another sub 60 entry.
Great FY results released into a blustery bitcoin headwind. Hopefully opening day gets a leg up from bitcoin. Over $1k up on 4pm yesterday is a good start.
Chae - over 63p - clearly a buy and a shrewd one at that.
I keep getting shot down on here for saying it, but I think that the market is valuing ARB (And the other miners to a lesser degree) based on current performance more than forward potential. On this basis £300m is the low end of fair value IMO. ARB have had terrible output recently and the miners in general have not delivered on capacity projections so it is somewhat understandable. Where ARB differ from the others is that their expansion plans (Helios) are so tangibly close to realisation, the scale over the existing business is disproportionate and that 'Poor' output of late has the potential to be corrected. Put those together and that is why ARB is my biggest holding presently.
We can't control crypto prices, but I think that ARB will outperform the sector over the next 6 months and the market will recognise revenue. Maybe we could get Beyonce to flick the Helios switch for some extra recognition?
Donald J Trump doesn’t like crypto either so it must be doomed…
Very hard to calculate a credible P/E for crypto miners with so many variables moving independently. I assume you are extrapolating your theoretical year end ‘22 into steady annualised ‘23 return? P/E is also disregards the Hodl value which is very much significant. It is still however clear that the potential here is huge. If you consider both ends of fairly extreme possibilities for year end: $10k bitcoin/3EH to $150k bitcoin 7EH, it is clear to me there is way more upside than down. An April return much better than Jan to March would also lay a more solid foundation to take off as I don’t feel we have really had a great explanation of the poor P1 to P3. GLA
Chaebol. Your view on next 3-6 months all being Crypto movement based suggests ARB have addressed all your concerns about them in their results. Nice one ??.
Chaebol - it is nice to see you have removed your - ARB 37p footer. Maybe that is what has been holding the SP back. Where may I ask do you think we will be in 3-6 months now and why?
Agree that today started well and finished poorly. Worth remembering that bitcoin isn't doing us any favours and the other miners are mostly down. We are still best part of 10% up on our competitors today and it sometimes takes news a few days to get traction. I still feel we are in a great place to leave 60's behind and work our wayinto the 70's before any bitcoin movements are reflected over the next week or so.
Chae - it was up 9 % after hours across the pond and they had minimal time to read and absorb the results.
It is refreshing to see a stock that didn’t surge into close before dropping positive update. A sign for me of credible corporate structure.
Coindesk article suggests that 200MW will be operational in May. Nice as that would be I think there is minimal research or inside info there. I expect all forecasts from here on in will include an estimate for immersion uplift and just hope the uplift isn’t over egged. Not that Ill be crying if we only see 5EH by year end. Going to be a nice day here and hopefully weeks/months ahead. GLA
More positive than I expected. EBITDA 2021 £53m, hodl and cash £93m, preferred financing model of debt and liquidating portion of mined coins, Helios online next month, 5.5EH by end of year. The only thing I could have asked for would be some more meat on the bone around milestones between May and year end.
Obviously Bitcoin is down nearly 20% since end Dec, but who thinks we won’t see high £40k’s again soon??? I know it has been stated before by PW that ARB would avoid further dilution in near future, but restating it in black and white should go down well with the market. Hoping we at least say goodbye to 60s for good… Fingers crossed.
Agreed, looks all positive to me. Market will hopefully react positively, particularly to no dilution. GLA
Not sure why anyone would be here if they weren’t positive about Bitcoin and crypto looking forward. Plenty of fiat banks or physical miners to spend your time researching.
RNS of some sort tomorrow?
Even most of us ARB fans recognise the past 3 months as very disappointing, but even this ****ty production in Q1 is worth around $20m at todays also disappointing Bitcoin value. This crappy performance is baked into the current SP meaning that the cumulative potential of improving mining performance, rising Bitcoin and Helios expansion adds exciting upside IMO. As many have pointed out, financing expansion is the risk, but I suspect we’ll find a palatable approach. GLA