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I like the ticker ATM tho'.........ATM - a machine that dispenses cash........but lets not get too carried away......I'm still in the red here
The first to produce tho' @agricore ? I was in BCN(which was mooted to be the first) until it was bought out by Ganfeng. Theres also EMH, ZNWD, SAV, ALL, BHL listed on AIM and probably others i don't know about; but although they've been trading a while they are all a long way off production. The big producers: Ganfeng, Albermarle, SQM, Pilbara are listed elsewhere. I would have assumed some of the big London listed miners like Glencore, Rio or BHP produced at least some Lithium.....but perhaps not.
If ATM can actually manage production of Li in the timescales they are predicting, then it will really be quite remarkable
Agree @Shandy......I have posted that chance of failure here, second time round, is about 10%.......its pure guesswork but the company is not giving anything away as to the exact reason for the CRL. We can read between the lines and conclude it was a manufacturing issue (although, remember POLX RNSed issues, plural). It may be, also, as the Amatti guy says, that the FDA needs to pull its socks up a bit.....it may be that POLX took their eye off the ball with some of the processes.....we'll probably never know.
Lurking at the back of my cynical mind is big pharma loving this to fail again and pick it up cheap......the tech is good and its being used already .....so has to be a good bet.....maybe
So difficult to put any kind of measurement on this. The chances of any NDA succeeding are slim......80% or more will fail. If there were safety issues with using polarised xenon gas then this would not progress. I have assumed that FDA have issues with manufacturing process and these can be overcome.
There is risk here obviously but to measure how much risk without substantial inside knowledge is extreemly difficult to say. If anyone knows of a useful equivalent comparitor please post it :o)
I think we will see 80p-90p pre decision. Its tricky, touched 110p last time and surely must be more chance of positive outcome this time ? Against this we have much more restrained wider market.
What is this worth with FDA green light .....has to be 110p plus. Thats doubling ur money with what ?.....10% chance of failure ? Still a very good bet at these levels.
DYOR ....and never take advice from chat boards :0)
I have posted this before:
A quick internet trawl came up with this one:
Novartis receives CRL for Leqvio(inclisiran) 11/12/2020
re-submission 6/7/2021
FDA approval 22/12/2021
So slightly before 6mths was up. Sometimes FDA will announce before the final day......is it Sep 30 here ?
DYOR etc etc
Well done to everybody brave enough, and confident enough, to get some at sub 40p
they bought, not insignificant amounts at 53p and 47p after the reject decision. Is there anything to stop them buying now? or do they have to wait until FDA makes next decision ?
bought a few more....surely can't go much lower !! ......he says, for the umpteenth time
good article@agricore with insight into how tin markets work. Our sp will be v reliant on tin prices until the lithium and tantalum gets nearer to production. Should have taken some profit in the 9's but its easy in hindsight. Happy to hold
tin future prices $35k per tonne is 30% down on year highs. Energy prices rising, shipping prices rising. Remember, this tin is smelted in (is it Thailand?). If a recession is coming then people are not going to be buying as many big electronic goods and tin solder less in demand.
All that said, I think this company is a good investment; one of the best AIM miners. People, and markets are nervous, if more small economy countries default on debt, then they will become more nervous
I would like to think there will be some form of closure in this tax year. It has been previously posted that these shares can be classed as negligable value for tax purposes.......but I didn't have taxable disposals last year to be able to confirm this
Depends on the price action @Sammy. If it rises sharply then I would take some out, if it doesn't, decision becomes more complicated. Remember what we ''supposedly'' had last time - 90% it gets approval. So do you think that £1.10 represents 90% of an FDA approved POLX.......or do you think the smart money felt that POLX was only, say, 75% likely to be approved and that £1,10 represented that probability ? Hmmmm
yes, no surprises, cash burn manageable, sp should rise thru summer. Any buyers waiting on the sidelines should be satisfied and look to get back in, should bump up today
there's one(or two) at @15.00 - 100k shares sold. Results tomorrow, I don't think any surprises and bought a few more this morning........but i've been wrong before
if a manufacturing process needs to be assessed then its an automatic class2/6mths . My inference is that this was the issue.
The cash burn we'll get an understanding of next week. I am surprised this has gone so low because of the spike to 65p on the re-submission. Maybe a lot of buyers didn't research and were expecting class 1 ?
seem to be the reason why we're taking a beating. Chinese covid situation does seem a bit weird compared to everywhere else. I didn't think we'd be back in the 6ps so I won't call the bottom, but drop does feel overdone.
did CEO say profit above $80/t ? I expect that's gone up a bit with fuel, shipping costs. $150 sounds good tho ?
A quick internet trawl came up with this one:
Novartis receives CRL for Leqvio(inclisiran) 11/12/2020
re-submission 6/7/2021
FDA approval 22/12/2021
I take it this was a class 2 as well because there were issues with a production facility. Anyway, here we have slightly less than 6mths. I'm sure there are other examples to be found. If its a fixed date then it makes trading strategies easy to plan, however, it looks like an announcement could come slightly earlier
class 1 resubmissions decision within 2 months
class 2 resubmissions within 6 months
ours is a class 2, and my GUESS is that this is because a manufacturing proceedure needs to be assessed.
Sept 30th is the full 6 months. Are resubmissions sometimes decided upon well within the time frame? I cant find anything at the moment, but there must be some info on the web, or posters here with industry knowledge ?
Topped up again at this price. We have a date now and that will focus minds and budgets. The price action in the run-up to last Octobers date is there for all to see, and if we have similar this time, then this would appear to be easy money. Slim(very IMO) outside chance of a raise ? that could trip me up. Might get slightly cheaper than 54 but will definitely be higher in the run-up to announcement; then either de-risk or stay in for the decision. DYOR , no guarantees,etc, etc