Member Info for jalcorta

32 cents of Euro sounds great, if we consider that we are able to buy AIB ADR Stocks for 74 cents of US dollar. Every ADR is conformed with 2 ALBK stocks. I have been in and out since when the price of the ADR was 1.4 us dollars. I got a big lost, thinking that this bank would recovered soon, but that has not happened, at least not yet. My estimations is that the ADR suppose to be on the 1.30's US dollars. It is unbelievable that even selling assets in USA and Polish for about 4 Billions euros the bank is still short with the liquidity requirements. The history have shown that buying banks back from governments is a good deal. The variation this time, is that we have the government as partner, not a good one by the way, but I do not think the government will be able to hold this bank for a long time (12 months). And once the government sell it, they will be able to cash it with some profits and my hope is that we get some profits too.

Do not worry. you will never see a 0 price, before that, It is the bankruptcy, and even in those last moments there are always people (with big Attorneys) willing to take the last shot negotiating something for the left overs. 7cents is the minimum stock price in a company, before goes in the venue of bankruptcy. After that the company moves to over the counter trades and at the end your receive a letter explaining your rights and the reasons why your stocks value is nothing. At least this has been my experience. No body like to have a government as partner, because obvious reasons, they are politicians unable to do a good job dealing between permanency in the government, and particular interests around a company. That is the major reason why is everybody walking out of this stock. More over if you see a desperately government trying to maintain stability and prosperity after uncontrolled expending, wrong policies and terrible deficit, you do not want a partner like that. The bank has a value but in this times nobody can see it, it is the name and the people behind this company the ones that will do the difference, of course if the government put in place the right rules and conditions to start the recovery process. The price is a consequence of demand and offer, and until somebody strong see a value to own the bank, no body will be able to stop the free fall, but every time the price goes down, more and more can be cautious observers ready to jump over the victim and reborn it with new perspectives.

As a friend told me, you always complain how much you lost, but always come back with big bucks after some time. We all know this stock is a risky stock, and I love that ... of course do not blur your sight, when you have this stock representing fair percentage of your portfolio, you need to take your time reading and researching the company. Last report I read about this company was so negative that I would not criticize those who jump out of the ship, but stay near the boat, so you can jump back and recover what you lost. I timidly bought at 1.4 usd ADR, but I sold 80% of the stocks when was 1.20, finally I started to buy back at 1 usd and I will continue until this slow down, but Ohh yes this is capital at a huge risk, and long term (12 to 24 months). Potentially we can have huge, gains so I will be with this bank until recovery or total failure. By the way, it has been very educative to read about Ireland culture, economy, and government. You always gain something.

In March 2009, Ford stocks went down to 1 US dollar, who will predict that the price today is 15 US dollars. They still have negative book value, but it is all about the promise to be strong. Book value is important, but more important is the cash flow that a company can generate in years to come. The rule is Stock price = 10 years projection profits per share. My opinion, the risk is bankruptcy, if not, then current stock holder will have a bright future. Of course today the things looks really bad, not different of what we saw in March 2009 in US. But there is a rule, if you believe that you are investor and you do not believe in progress and the ability of the humanity to overcome any challenge, then you are NOT, and if you are mathematician you know about cycles, and cycles always return. It is not a financial rule, it is natural rule applicable to everything in this world. Ireland people have demonstrated during centuries their ability to innovate and create future of nothing, and I am sure they will solve this problem successfully. I am still positive that the real price of this stock is 1 Euro per share. 2 years from now, we will see the things very different. This is not GM this is the Ford of US.

My response would be: Book value, and Ireland strategic recovery. I started to buy 1.4 usd ADR (70 us cents per share (1 ADR equivalent to 2 shares)) Book value 2 Euros per share that will be diluted up to 1 Euro per share. Once the 5Billion shares goes to market at 0.5 euros per share. (Of course this has been managed so bad that the Ireland Government will own them, Ireland do not have a Warren Buffet to organize an Ireland Group to buy it, mmm that is bad), until the Ireland economy stabilize (Strong positive trading with Europe countries and huge community savings are helpful) The problem of this bank is related with the boom of the housing industry as everywhere, and of course better economy during 2001 to 2006 deeper the problem. I have seen how much value the houses have lost during last 3 years in Ireland (more than 55%), On my opinion this is going to be the worst moment. But I think the Ireland government wants as the US government to make money from the banks, buying the stocks at a very ridiculous prices, and selling a few months later for double or triple. They have their point, if this bank stocks are bought by other countries the out flow of cash later on will be terrible. They have to maintain the stocks in Ireland at least as many as possible, but that delicate balance to buy cheap stocks own NAMA assets and start the recovery is so complicated, more over in the political environment in where they are immerse. The government need to save this bank because is the only one that will be able to support at a later time the recovery of the country. Of course they are hurting the bank so bad with the NAMA program that the bank was enforce to sell beautiful assets overseas. Who owns the NAMA owns the real Country assets, but if you want to own the bank and the NAMA assets in a so small country and small government is crazy, and the opposition is taking their role to criticize so risky strategy. Having euros guarantee that the people savings will go no where, then the resources are there, they are exporting services and products in a very successful way, it is a matter of political agreements to come back, and that need to happen soon, as soon as the end of this year. At the end this is my personal opinion and as known every want has different aversion to risk, find yours and invest accordingly.

I hope government plays its real role and Management and Board of Directors focus on taking the best decisions under the current challenging scenario. I hope corruption becomes eradicated, and the new CEO get the bad apples out of the company soon. There is still value for the current stock holders, in spite of the terrible decisions taken by the previous management and Board of directors team. Keep buying measured.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/albk?countryCode=uk You can see that the price has been moving, and in this we site, look at the chart below the numbers, price has been moving, look at this link but go below the numbers and see the chart. http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=ALBK&share=aldirish_bks

First of all, the price is the equilibrium between supply and demand, if the price is going down is because there is more supply than demand, meaning people is selling and those who are buying are ruling the price. by the way in US is happening the same with the ADR AIB, and the price fell 5% average, but in the other hand yesterday we saw a positive change over 3% in US. Another thing to point out is the difference in price between the England and Ireland in the same ALBK stock. look at the price carefully, 40 cents is very different of 40.3 in England and 39.8 in Ireland. This difference in price 1.3% is big when we are speaking of the same product. In US the ADR is 1.17 US dollars, and there are 2 stocks per ADR the equivalent price is 41.4 cents of Euro. This difference has been normal during the last 2 weeks. At the end the supply and demand are based in expectations, and I am still convinced that ALBK need to be strong as part of the recovery process of Ireland. Even though invest in this volatile stock is decision of each one. People is running away of risk but curiously there are more positive perception of this stock outside Ireland, I hope we are right and the recovery of this bank becomes a reality for the benefit of everybody.

Last posting 3.5M should be 3.5B and 10M should be 10Billion. Amazingly the current qty of common stocks are 1B, that is the reason the current equity will be totally diluted, but even with that, the price book would be 1.24 Euros. We need a great CEO to start the come back. All this is under my limited knowledge. Be cautious with your decisions.

With the current government position, to back up the bank and specially the price of .50 if the market do not want to buy at the target price of .50 the government would buy the stocks, first converting the 3.5M preferred stocks to common stocks and after that the difference to 10M, At least it is what I understood after reading different documents. From my perspective, the government position is part of the reason why the stock price is so low. Now if this situation is similar to US city group had a value of 1 usd and Bank of America 3 usd today after 17 months C = 4.1 and BAC =12.6 round numbers. 4 times the lowest levels. The government who pick up the majority of the stocks in the worst moment has nothing invested in the banks, in some cases the government even made money with this transactions. The difference is that the government never claim to be the owner of the bank and always said that government will support the banks to maintain customers at easy and trust in the system. Eventually C and BAC and many other banks issue stocks to repay the government debt, for one simple reason the management and board of directors wanted the full control of the bank back. Now, In Mexico happened something similar 25 years ago, in that case the situation was terrible, government take control of the banks paying a ridicules amount of money for the banks, it was a take over at even 50% less of book value. years after that with so many politicians putting their hands on the banks, the situations was dramatically bad and the government sold the banks back to the business men, I hope this last scenario does not happen in Ireland. I think the management took so much time to recognize that they needed to issue stocks and now the stockholders are paying the consequences. All this is under my point of view, please read more documents to create your own thinking about it

Government owns a Bank?, it is such a bad combination, I hope people from Ireland buys majority of stocks(they have 100 billion in savings, 5% to buy the bank sound possible), it is an excellent deal, the investors will see the returns very fast. But I also hope the politicians get their hands off in order to avoid set backs on the recovery process. Intellectual property in between other intangible assets plus still strong equity levels makes of this bank from my perspective a strong buy. worst is behind, November will be bad, but December will be great!.

Loose money to make money, Ireland is on sale. When we talk about the country with more potential to supply Europe with Services and Products at a very competitive price with high quality, you can not think in something else but bright future. Whatsoever, It is painful to be on the current situation, with so high unemployment 13+%, but at the same time is the opportunity for those entrepreneurs to innovate and revolutionize the country. I am with AIB because they are going to stay for long time, supporting new projects and fuel the economy with resources even at the cost of selling assets around the world. Hang on, the worst is behind. Talent people never give up. Rebound is coming.

Book value, book value and book value. 1B common stocks, 3.5B preferred stocks and 10B (min price of .5 Euros), these 10B will be able to be bought by current stock holders, government and third parties. Even that the current stock holders will see the value diluted, the book value will be 1.7 Euros. 8 B euros current equity, plus 10B euros coming from 10B stocks at a price of .0.5 euros plus 5B from assets to be sold (US M&T/ Poland). This bank would be target for a hostile takeover of oversees banks if it was not because the strategy the government setting rules to buy new stocks. I think this is going to be a great deal for the government with the conversion of the 3.5B preferred stocks to common stocks and the 10B additional potential stocks. If Ireland is in the bottom, what I think it is, with very strong people savings and great position to export to Europe, from my perspective there is no other possibility but an aggressive rebound. Having a top gun CEO will be very important to accelerate this process. What do you think? Am I right with my approach?, is this the BAC of Europe?