Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Tacet,
Thanks. I wasn't aware of Coleman's book. But I see it's selling on Amazon & has plenty of good reviews. Looks interesting.
I'll delve into it at some point as what we see going on around the world right now should concern all of us. - GL.
Each time such a support level is broken, it's taking out more stop losses which drives it further down. A vicious cycle. Selling pressure seems strong & much of it is algorithm driven as can be seen from majority of trades on LSE.
Who to blame? Well keep locking down economies & threatening to lockdown even further, rather than protecting the vulnerable, & this is what you'll get. People panicking & meltdown across a few sectors.
A long-term hold as this total shambles is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. - GLA.
As others have mentioned, best ignore those buy/sell ratios. They are always inaccurate. Totally useless as an indicator of the actual trading direction.
Large volume FTSE stocks will only go down if there is greater selling pressure. That's what we have with oil & most other FTSE stocks. This isn't a small AIM stock which can be manipulated by a few large buyers or sellers. GLA.
Hennabibi,
I meant of course "NO ONE can be 100% sure". - Pity that there is no 10 minute edit button here.
Hennabibi,
My sincere advice is, in this unusual market climate with COVID-19, I really think it is better not to pay too much attention to what other people think BP is worth. No disrespect intended to others. Even all professional brokers have called this & other stocks badly wrong. That speaks volumes for how unpredictable things have been.
No-on can be 100% sure what will happen with markets over coming weeks. Indeed, BP's SP could be dragged even lower still along with many other stocks. Though seeing as low 180p would be highly surprising considering the dividend yield.
However, if you hold this BP & if you have time on your side, as long as you stay patient it is 100% sure that this & other oil stocks will be much higher again later. I mean after 2020. The key thing is staying calm & not selling out cheaply. - GL.
Fexit,
Some valid points. Especially re FTSE 100. It's beyond poor. An embarrassingly weak index compared to many others. Nearly 50% of FTSE stocks are garbage, riddled with weak fundamentals & poor-to-zero growth prospects.
I disagree about BP & the oil sector, even if we see the disappointment of yet more new 25 year closing lows. After cutting the dividend by 50% on 4th August, it'd be highly unusual to do it again now.
The problem we have is that various governments, including our's, rather than giving added protections to vulnerable citizens, not only are they tightening lockdown in some areas, they're now giving strong hints of more lockdowns to follow. When you're strangling most economic activity, FTSE follows accordingly with nearly everything sold off yet again.
Elsewhere they talk of higher taxes to come to pay for it all. But pension funds are also being hit as most of them are heavily invested in indexes like the UKX.
All in all, a right shambles that shows no signs of ending anytime soon. But when it does, I'd still expect oil stocks to bounce back strongly. - GLA.
I'm not here to do "groundbreaking analysis" anymore than any one else. That's for highly paid experts. Still many of them call it wrong. That's obvious enough from glancing at all the well off the mark broker targets for every stock one cares to look at.
But patently from posts here, some have been selling at loss near 25 year lows. I consider that unfortunate for those individuals. They are avoidable losses. So posting reminders about why this is highly likely to recover well & approximately when (no one has a crystal ball) does no one any harm, but may save others taking unnecessary losses. - GLA.
JAS78,
Not if you're wholly convinced about seeing "sub £2". That's not my view.
Closing support for BP so far at 214+. Whilst it's not going up, neither is much else. UKX barely a few points up as I write. A generally duff index that more recently can't even hold 6000. It started 2020 well over 7600. When one sees US markets, the DAX & those in the far East, UKX is embarrassing.
Hard to say much more as it all depends on whether the powers that be decide to tighten lockdown measures over coming weeks. If governments keep curtailing economic activity, this is going nowhere fast. But when economies get back on track, so will this.
Sorry to read of anyone taking losses. - GL.
RedArrow,
I know how you feel. I sold LLOY on 21/9 at loss to buy BP at 233.33. BP rose to 246.95 next day, LLOY was down with BoE talk of negative interest rates. I felt okay about my switch.
Literally days later the BoE backtracked on the chance of negative rates with the governor saying, quote, there may be a "Brexit dividend" ahead for UK banks, whatever that means. All UK banks went up, though they're still far from out of the woods.
A bit like Sod's Law in my case. Not that I'd ever sell BP at loss, but mistiming these things is almost par for the course for many of us. - GL.
Man of Steel,
Basically, BP closed 214.40 on Friday. Today's open was 219.40. So the SP gapped up from Friday's close. That briefly left a gap below. That's almost closed now with today's intraday lows. In my previous post I gave an example of a technical gap above.
In a nutshell: TA isn't gospel. It's far from an exact science. But many professional traders target TA indicators like resistance or support levels, gaps, etc. Especially when we've an absence of germane fresh news. It's just another aspect of markets, though some people choose to ignore it preferring to go with fundamentals. - GL.
Probably many here now expect to just sit tight and do little else until at least until well into 2021. Me too. If I had more surplus cash, I'd have added another tranche. But I don't. I imagine there'll be many in a similar situation.
Talking of technical gaps here, we've a few above that seem very fillable later. For example, BP closed 311.30 on 12th August. Next day's open was 303.90. It never reached 311 since. The divi-cut announced on 4th August would've been priced in by then. That 311+ gap seems certain to be filled when we return to greater global economic activity.
Bound to be more gaps higher up considering the sharp SP falls since start of 2020. We just need to ride out the current widespread negativity. - GLA.
Warthog4,
Thanks. Valid points & I agree. This can be a tough game. Heavy financial losses can be stressful. I imagine some here aren't even "playing" stock markets. More so, with interest rates at historical lows, some are trying to make their savings work better for them. Hence tempers can be raised.
Nothing unusual to see some folks also share more general banter on these BBs about the stocks they're involved in. Par for the course.
The gist of tonight: I've defended a poster for innocently mistaking the UT as a sell, which I pointed out. No harm done. That was it. End of. Then the sad case I've got involved arrived from nowhere. Targets the lad who mistook the UT & gets visibly upset about my defensive comments. That kicks off his abuse.
Anyone can check my posting history. I respect 99.99% of posters. No great effort. It's only right.
But there's always one who seems to want a verbal fight rather than talk about the stocks most of us have a financial interest in.
I'll gladly let it go. But I'm not the one trolling others. - GL too!
RollThatDice,
No need to apologise. I've just scanned your posting history. Full of a simplistic one-liners. LOL. It's obvious you haven't a clue, hence the need to wade in with abuse. No problem.
Regarding your obvious inadequacy issues. Did they drop you on your head when you were a baby? Have the meds worn off? Or were you just born as daft as a doorpost? Some friendly advice: maybe go off to your corner, sit down & have a good think about it before you try answering. What a sad little man you must be! LOL.
Cookie & IceyDicey,
Thanks. Good comments from both of your earlier tonight & we all live & learn.
Cookie, I much agree with your last post. You sum it up well &, IMO, even if it takes longer than a few weeks to see meaningful recovery here, that's still okay from where I'm standing. Plenty of upside potential here from current levels.
Indeed re 216. As they say, hindsight is a wonderful thing, but when I bought at 233.33, that was a long-term support from March's close. The reasoning at the time was okay. No-one has a crystal ball. So it goes.
We know the major issue currently affecting so many stocks across various sectors is beyond anyone's immediate control. Many SPs have been driven down mostly from fear. Sentiment is the main driver, rather than a more rational longer-term outlook. But once macro-factors get back closer to normality, more buyers likely to return & back up we'll go.
Take care all & let's hope the new week has seen the last of these new 25 year lows!
" Hence a 42m sell after hours too."
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IceyDicey,
Note, there is NO SELL here of that size after hours. That's the UT - ie. Uncrossing Trade. Those are always a mix of buys & sells, regardless of whether termed a SELL or a BUY. We see them at 4.35PM for all stocks.
The buys (if thats what they really are) Cookie highlighted were take as 11:59:24, so this morning. - GL.
Cookie,
Good spot. These delayed reports of some larger trades was discussed by me & others here a few days ago. Including occasionally sells misreported as buys & vice versa.
These 2 large trades were transacted just before midday at 216. If they really are buys (as we'd all hope they are), then some big money is firmly bullish here for longer-term. If so, no surprise at all. All oil stocks are likely to be much higher again later once the global economy is back on track. - GL & all have a VG w/end!.
Smartpee,
Sorry to read that. But a brave decision at this stage & you'll know what's best for your overall financial situation better than anyone else.
I sincerely hope you recover your losses in good time elsewhere. - ATB.
"Bp raised it's divi in March, maintained it in June then cut it in September.You have never seen that either.There is nothing off the table in this climate.Shell had not cut their divi since ww2 but they did it in style. We are in uncharted waters here.The fact that all oil companies are the same means not a lot here."
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Baz,
Indeed, we've unprecedented times. But while there's reason to be cautious in this climate, history tells us that economies recover well from the very worst setbacks: Spanish Flu in 1918 soon after WW1, Wall Street crash 1929, WW2, 2008's financial crisis. Also, peak oil demand is at least a few years away.
When the general economic bounce-back comes, as it will do eventually, the chances are it'll have the same strong momentum as have the falls.
I agree it'd be pure speculation looking at timelines for recovery here. Fair to say, it's unlikely to be soon. But unless one believes that the global economy won't ever recover, then in time BP & this sector ought to recover well.
I'll review my position here in about a year's time. Target: at least closer to double my 233+ buy. - GL.
Smartpee,
Indeed. We've seen many FTSE stocks either cut or cancel their dividends altogether for this year. Some may struggle to restart them even in 2021. But I've never yet seen any major company cut a dividend twice in quick succession.
I'd be extremely surprised if BP cuts it again anytime soon having only recently decided on what they considered was an affordable yield for the foreseeable future.
Despite the current doldrums affecting the entire sector, it's not set in stone. By & large the global economy recovers from the most severe setbacks & continues growing. Historically that's always been the case. Once it does, IMO, your average will be well in profit. Just the timing seems in doubt. - Cheers.
Smartpee,
No consolation knowing that you're far from alone. I bought at 233.33, then near 25 year lows. Disappointing to see more new 25 year lows since, but I never seriously expected to catch the bottom.
FWIW, IMO, we can't be far off the bottom now. The yield here is rising & that alone may soon be attractive in a low-interest rate environment. Having cut their dividend on 4th August, it's doubtful they'll cut it again so soon.
Buy, but only for a longer-term hold. - GL.