RE: 2 & 5s22 Jun 2023 13:36
Hi Imp I do agree that it’s important not to overly focus on negatives but….
If they cannot overturn the damage that’s been done selling the option and getting put in C&M there really isn’t a positive catalyst in sight.
We could take the view that cash is king and at least balance sheet is shored up while the market goes through a storm but….
The largely unwanted payrise metric JV’s need paying for, if he chooses to discontinue them then the money already spent becomes totally wasted. 3.5 million isn’t going to go far across 2 early stage JV’s and any early stage data will not hold SP value. Although early stage explo is necessary it doesn’t add value as market just sees burn.
So a large part of the 3.5 will be spent on activities (mapping, sampling, geophysics , wages, rents, admin) that are not SP value enhancing.
Unless Brad can undo what’s done then this is a car crash for the cash balance and equity.
Thing is, I don’t think he can undo the option he sold and he’s going to try and put arg/bra centre stage for the next 18 months while Anza remains on back burner.
He started making it the Brad George show, by introducing more risk and cost to simply justify his package and perks, I criticised the new “model” incessantly at the time and this is how the Brad George show looks in reality when you focus on data and not his vague words and possible intentions.
I’m not going to dump my stock, I’m going to see if SP drops to cash value and buy some more if it does but that’s because I’m a degenerate gambler betting not investing and i won’t be happy to avg down either.
If anyone can bring some quantifiable positivity to this investment case I’d Welcome it because the way I see it this is reduced to a binary bet on whether they can salvage something from the wreckage they have supervised.
Very very bleak 12-18 months if they can’t secure a concession from the majors on the asset we all bought into as the option has locked control fully in their favour.