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I suspect they were saying the same think about a years-long glut of lithium back in 2018-19.
Complaining about Keith is a waste of time. He isn't the problem. There are to problems that plague EMH: (1) CEZ controls the timeline; and (2) the EU is useless because everyone involved wants their slice of the pie. Any replacement of Keith would have to deal with the same issues.
The Financial Times publishes an important article about the lack of lithium in Europe. And EMH doesn't even get mentioned?
https://www.ft.com/content/154c53aa-5a9a-4004-abf9-2e6e5396dca4
Leftos, to me the debate isn't whether we should use fossil fuels or not. The truth is that fossil fuels are here to stay for a very long time. But that isn't the issue at all. What is the issue is the electrification of energy. Yes, even electrification will demand even greater use of oil that we use now (assuming nuclear isn't ramped up). Electricification is all about taking fossil fuels and distributing them to centralized power generation facilities where the energy is then converted to electrical energy and distributed to the population via electrical wires. That electrical energy is then stored in batteries, much like energy is stored in a gasoline tank. But distributing energy via an electrical conduit is FAR more efficient than driving gasoline trucks to gas stations around the continent (in much the same manner of how ice and coal were once distributed directly to homes using ice/coal trucks before widespread adoption of things like electric refrigerators and gas furnaces. Europe is showing great incompetence in making that transition.
Europe needs to stop talking and start doing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/climate-eu-agrees-to-ramp-up-2030-renewable-energy-targets.html
What happened to the prior position that "80% of raw materials have to be mined in Europe"? Is that no longer the case now in light of this document?
The ALL story is a nothing burger.
This is a really good "roundup" of the state of the lithium market, including China's efforts to manipulate the lithium market and Europe's incompetence in moving toward electrification. Totally worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96_ETJiOmlc
Thanks for sharing, KoKoLeLe. Here's an English translation:
"Yesterday we informed you that the German Volkswagen Group is postponing plans to build a battery factory in Europe. One of the favored locations was the one in Líny near Pilsen. However, the aforementioned findings, which came up with the Financial Times, contradict the statements of representatives of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and Škoda Auto, who confirm that negotiations are still ongoing.
As already mentioned in the past, the Volkswagen Group is examining different locations in different regions of the world for the construction of its gigafactories. 'These decision-making processes are independent of each other. There is no connection between the decision to locate the gigafactory in North America and the decision to locate it in Europe. At the same time, we cannot talk about prioritizing North America over Europe. An ideal production process with respect to the environment assumes a synergistic grouping of electric car production and battery cells, especially taking into account the number of car manufacturing plants in Eastern Europe,' said Hynek Brom, coordinator and project manager under the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
'The EU is preparing new measures as part of the Green Deal program. The Volkswagen Group remains committed to building cell factories with a capacity of approximately 240 GWh in Europe by 2030, but it needs the right framework conditions and wants to take into account the final framework of EU legislation as a basis for decisions on location of production in Europe. Whether these support packages within the Green Deal program could offer Volkswagen better investment incentives in Europe and the Czech Republic remains to be seen,' he added.
'The Czech Republic is in an excellent position among the candidate countries for acquiring a gigafactory. Now, however, we have to wait for what the so-called new Green Agreement will bring. The concern must also evaluate it in terms of subsidies and investment incentives,' said ŠKODA AUTO CEO Klaus Zellmer.
'No decision has been made yet, the evaluation process continues. Before investing billions of euros, the Volkswagen Group will again carefully assess plans for individual regions. There is no need to make a decision immediately, because the steps taken so far guarantee the coverage of battery supplies until 2028. Negotiations with the Czech government are progressing successfully "Constructive discussions on project details continue with all stakeholders,' added Zellmer.
I'm with you, Limark. While I wish in hindsight that I had entered EMH at a better price point, the one thing about the lithium deposit at Cinovec and the rising tide of energy storage solutions is that neither is going away anytime soon. It's not like we have a company running on fumes near bankruptcy or a company pursuing outdated technology (signaling that it will be bankrupt eventually). Rather, the issue is that the ROI for EMH is not happening as fast as we would like, as if we're all children sitting in the back seat of the family car screaming "are we there yet???". I am fine with waiting and watching Europe get its **** together. I am confident that will happen .... eventually. Meanwhile, my allocations in Canadian and Brazil lithium miners is doing great (no, I don't plan to chase returns with my EMH money).
"Economies across the EU cannot afford to lose key investments as they struggle with a cost-of-living crisis. The bloc also wants to be independent of China and others for critical materials like lithium.
'The EU is particularly aware that it needs to do more to compete internationally,' Demertzis said.
The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, is still working on a Sovereignty Fund to provide financing for green projects, but the full details are not expected before June."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/03/tesla-one-of-many-companies-to-review-investments-in-europe-after-biden-ira.html
Thanks for sharing the sodium-ion link, Ant. From where I sit (United States), no one will be buying an EV that gets less than 100 miles per charge. Sodium ion isn't mainstream for us Yanks, with our massive, energy guzzling trucks! I agree with mrcautious on this one -- most likely use case for sodium ion is in grid storage.
mrcautious, the one thing about hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that so many don't seem to understand -- they all need lithium batteries (unless we're talking about retrofitting an ICE engine to run on hydrogen fuel). The hydrogen fuel trucks that everyone keeps talking about needs lithium batteries to drive the electric motors. The main battery difference between a pure EV and a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is that the lithium batteries are smaller in hydrogen fuel cell (the fuel cell charges the batteries, but some of that electricity can be routed directly to the electric motors, thus requiring a smaller lithium batteries). I am not worried about hydrogen fuel cells (most likely to be used for trucks on highways). The more, the merrier!
Ant, Keith Coughlan said a revised DFS is imminent in his last interview. Why not wait a bit more before exiting?
You will be sorely missed on this chat board! As for sodium ion batteries, they don't worry me one bit. The issue with sodium batteries is their lack of energy density. In practical terms, to get the same juice to an EV as lithium ion would provide, you would need a HUGE sodium ion battery the size of a dumpster. That won't happen. The use case for sodium ion is grid storage or next to windmills, where space isn't a concern (space is still a concern in home battery storage, so I don't see sodium ion batteries appearing in homes unless it is in a rural area). Quite frankly, the largest threat to lithium is lithium. We are going to have plenty of lithium in the 2030's. I plan to get out around 2030-ish before prices drop.
Hi, Ant! Aston Minerals wasn't on my radar. Candidly, I have been a bit shy about investing heavily in nickel, manganese, and cobalt because the battery makers have been tweaking the battery chemistries for NMC batteries (DRC child labor, availability, etc.). Talon Nickel is my nickel play, and really only because it is the only nickel mine in the US. The common denominator of all these batteries is lithium and graphite, both for LFP and NMC (I don't really see synthetic graphene taking flight because it is too energy intensive and expensive). If you are short on time, I would invest your money in the lithium miners that are going into production now -- Core Lithium, Sigma Lithium, and Sayona Mining (joined at the hip currently with Piedmont Lithium). These companies are poised to ride the wave this year. The others with a later timeframe are good, too (e.g., Frontier Lithium), but my best performers have been those which are poised to take advantage of current prices. I suspect those companies will be prime takeover targets for Tesla, Rio Tinto, and the others that are looking to gobble up junior miners. As for Australia, I am a bit more concerned because most of the miners are heavily reliant on China, and as you know, we've got problems with China. If there is trouble brewing, it won't be pretty for investors in Aussie miners. Also, take a look at Atlantic Lithium (joined at the hip with Piedmont and Sayona).
And I don't have a penny invested in LAC. I view LAC as a meme stock trying to mine lithium using a technique that has never been proved profitable in the history of mankind. I think Morningstar is really off base to think LAC is its favorite. It will be interesting to see LAC's first quarterly report after first production. If LAC can make clay mining profitable and doesn't have majors legal battles over water in the dry Nevada desert, then I may invest. Until then, it's just a meme stock for the dumb money.
Wow, I'm very much different from you guys. I am 90% invested in EV Raw Material stocks (lithium, graphite, nickel, rare earths, etc.) and have done EXTREMELY well over the past year. Sigma Lithium, for example, produced a 300% return last year. Sayona Mining did well, too. Among my conviction plays is EMH (top four in terms of dollars invested), but as you know, it hasn't done squat over the past couple of years. Savannah has sucked as well. EMH's time will come, though. And I have nothing but time (no, I'm NOT in prison!).
Europe seems to be losing the battery arms race. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-scales-back-german-battery-180100836.html
Another one of my major holdings, Sigma Lithium (SGML). Now, it's VW's turn to buy EMH! https://stocks.apple.com/A0IKOZjhkQUeNnj8qR3RMUA