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Correct me if I'm wrong but given our ownership stake has fallen from 57.7 to 36.7% in Seaport, 21% of the company has been valued at $225m meaning the post money valuation is $1125m? Valuing our stake at more like $412m?

Yes I am short - but bear these important facts in mind

Pre Ipo Matt swapped some of his overvalued shares for property assets. Since IPO THG has invested hugely in automation and more capacity at the the distribution centres. Owned by Matt. These are leasehold improvements.His key tenant is Ingenuity. This equity raised 75m of cash into Ingenuity. He and friends have bought Ingenuity at effectively nil value. The 75m will come back to Matt through rent over a few years anyway. Ask yourself why THG paid to expand capacity to double current GMV before clients signed? On the call that analyst from Barclays asked the right question. What happens if Ingenuity gets into trouble? Well, the value of Matt's property is impaired....

As the post money valuation is £100m then Ingenuity being valued by Board at £25m, some way below wherr it used to be. So any investors in the private company last night are basically getting in for free. Meanwhile, the over raise of £25m goes into THG to inject some much needed cash. Why would MM accept the oversubscription and dilute himself if THG didn't need the cash? Any different views or understandings?

On ITM Power and hydrogen stocks (+) including Ceres Power, worth noting BBC news last night suggested new Chancellor Rachel Reeves intends to announce today or tomorrow some early-stage initiatives which will focus along pressurising those “holding up the planning process” to speed up more renewable projects of various technologies. It was already part of their manifesto to double the end of 2030 electrolyser targets of Conservatives to 10GWs from 5GWs, but this can’t be expected to be achieved in UK without more subsidies according to BNEF which currently forecasts only 2 GWs installed by end of decade. Unlikely Reeves promises direct subsidy increase as yet but hydrogen could be part of the speech.

COMMENT FROM HOUSE BROKER INVESTEC

"500MW to an electrolyser manufacturer at todays pricing is roughly c.£250m of revenue. With cost reduction likely over an 4/5 year lifespan, if you use an average ASP of c£400k/MW over the timeframe, you would arrive at an approximate revenue of £200m – clearly dependent on various factors! But demonstrates revenue potentiaL"

No bidding war sadly but attention should now focus on the value in the N.American JV which surely has to be considerably more than the 0.6p we are held to believe

in simple terms we know Lithia spend $100m now. The JV is on arms length but say they get the $100m down to $80m by using Pinewood. There will be minimal associated sales costs obviously but some management/service costs on those users. So the JV should deliver $60m+ of EBIT (allowing for some sales staff to target non Lithia) of which we have 49%. Put that on 15x EBIT given the opportunity to grow it outside Lithia and our 49% is worth $450m ie. 22p a share on the new share count. The road to the $60m is visible pretty quickly too- the published docs demonstrate the two firms want to get on with the customisation process to ready the package for the US. The rollout is targeted to be done within 18mths. I have seen a JPM note that says Lithia spends $150m per annum on the stuff PW does so my numbers could be way low

PS. you will note that in 2019 PW delivered the same EBIT more or less as now but on revenue of £16m not the £27m we have now -ie. we have put in huge operating costs to build out the product and move into new geogs since then implying the product really has minimal running costs to serve . 2019 saw £18.3m rev and £13.4m operating profit which included a small head office allocation

PPS. the market may have missed that in Lithia's own announcement re its increased bid it noted that it has already secured 7,500 additional potential UK users contingent on this deal going thru. This is pretty amazing and at 90% GM, this could drop £5m thru to the bottom line in short order

Massive news today-i've added

-allows them to do puerto rico without an eq raise/loan from turkish holdco -means rating agencies and sophisticated inv firms have crawled over the biz - gives signal to potential buyers that the company is IG - allows better position to negotiate with US ports looking to outsource - shd Massively reduce disc rate as this debt is such a big chunk of group funding - Allows them to complete Puerto Rico itself is a huge boost to dcf -deal should be signed imminently now they have the funding for their equity component

Apart from that...not a "game changer" :)

Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/three-green-hydrogen-projects-drop-out-of-first-uk-production-subsidy-round-ahead-of-negotiations/2-1-1502061

thanks for posting this

does this mean that there are 17 possible UK green hydrogen projects and ITM is involved in actually none of them? how has this happened?

Anyone knowledgeable know this anwer? should shareholders be concerned with Bosch/Ceres JV announcing a trial of Ceres electrolysers with Linde Engineering. who are ITM's partner

"·    A two-year collaboration with Linde Engineering and Bosch has commenced to validate the performance, cost, and operational functionality of Ceres' electrolyser technology."

JPMorgan:" PPH shares trade 58% below the groups last reported EPRA NAV while the balance sheet contains little risk, in our view, as we see a FY23e year-end Net LTV of ~35%"

my comment- Price target 1600p, strangely still a Neutral but that could/should change

how much cheaper do people think Works is than the competirors like Hobbycraft, WH Smith, Poundland etc?

instos can directly bid market makers a price -and if the MM is derisking/scared/under pressure they will often accept a low bid or high offer (depending if they're long or short) if it's for good size

big seller of 650k shares that has been sitting at 165 now cleared....not sure what the news means today but it's certainly positive. hopefully an infrastructure firm is looking to either buy equity or act as debt partner

https://marketing.zoodigital.com/hubfs/ZOO%20CMD%202022-10-06.pdf
p77 -they saved the only real new info til late on

well the big news from yesterday capital markets day was the target for $400m long term revenue at 20% operating margin....they expect revenue from Disney alone to double and to sign material new clients who are currently trialling the software
surprised the shares aren't given they were above these levels post the results on 20 September
this stock should be an accelerated proxy on the growth and internationalisation of streaming services-and the rising popularity of international content being translated INTO English not just out of English like in the past

fair enough
good to encourage sensible debate @Toneman
my idea is long term as my belief is it will go to zero over time like most concept stocks, even those with big name "partners". classic examples being Pursuit Dynamics and more recently Xeros. the proof of commitment is the money invested by partners -if that ever looks to change, I will change my view

their sales strategy should be perfect- getting investment from a major global gas player like Linde
but now Linde is trialling a competing technology

Ed Milliband seems to like ITM so that is a positive I guess

They have backed off building new plant in the UK because green hydrogen doesn't work at current power prices and current tech. The reply from Bellers' enquiry to IR is very telling in that regard.

In the EU, others are subsiding their local champions like McPhy. ITM is far too late into the European market to succeed there and the UK government is rightly being sceptical of not throwing good money after bad.

The Yara contract was announced in January 2022 but there is no progress on it referred to in the annual report. I take this to mean production hasn't started.

I advise investors look at the ITM Annual Reports and note that the total cumulative product sales in last two years sum to £3.7m. There is a a warranty provision of £2.9m (note 22) against these sales-mostly which seems to relate to the Shell project according to the narrative. So basically I am assuming the kit doesn't work. The provision went up by £2.2m in this year.

The rest of the piddly revenue is service or feasibility projects. The Linde JV has not actually booked any revenue except to itself and that Leuna project has not got through testing and is about a year late. Note 12 shows that Linde and ITM will inject E750k each into the JV in the next twelve months. Is this really commitment from a huge entity like Linde (Praxair) if it thinks ITM has a world leading stack tech?

It wants to build Bessemer out to 1.5GW capacity but has guided to only selling 48-65 MW this year despite having large contracts apparently at Yara and Leuna underwriting those numbers. The company is having us all on.

The company used to disclose £ revenue backlog but now discloses MW. It is doing everything it can to confuse investors. It describes unsigned contracts as "backlog" - look at its weasly and ever changing definition of orderbook and backlog at the top of the RNS. The new CEO will come in and wipe this "backlog" all off. Watch your eye.

why don't they hand the money back they raised in November if they're not going to need it for expansion? Because they want to sustain this lossmaking enterprise for a few more years that's why

I am short

house broker Singers put thru 27% and 39% upgrades for this March and March '24
big numbers
and they are assuming H2 falls back versus the $51m and only put in $95m for 3/2023
pretty conservative upgrade IMHO
plenty of cash to invest in new services and countries

does anyone out there have any colour on the Linde trial with a competitor electrolyser product, as discussed on the analyst call? Graham confirmed that a 'different division of Linde' was trialling a competitor and downplayed the significance

~£5m of operating cashflow pa from the new deal says cenkos...