Member Info for Inthetin

Hi LTI

Thanks for your message.

If I'm wrong and the MENA contracts are worth a lot more than my estimates, that's great but I'll believe it when I see it.

Now, back to wondering if we're going to get anything more from Genus.

GL

ITT

Hi LTI

In yesterday's RNS, it says that the hubs ordered on 05/04/2022 have been used to connect to 1 million Omnimesh cellular communications modules in the MENA region.

As I couldn't remember Cyan making a sale of 1 million Omnimesh cellular communications modules in the MENA region, I had another quick look at the history of RNSs and could see that the 04/08/22 order was for a new cellular product (described as 'Cellular Gateways') which were to be fitted to existing smart electricity meters and the contract was worth $2.5M. Rightly or wrongly, I am assuming that the customer received 1M 'Cellular Gateways' for $2.5M (as 1 million Omnimesh cellular communications modules have in fact been connected to).

$2.5M ÷ 1M = $2.5 each.

Then, again in yesterday's RNS, it says that the hubs being purchased have the capacity to connect 1.41M devices. I'm assuming that these devices will need Omnimesh cellular communications modules to complete the connection.

1.41M modules x $2.5 = $3.53M + a bit of inflation takes me to $4M'ish.

Feel free to correct me, I'm always happy to learn.

Cheers

ITT

In Jan/Feb'24, I wonder if we can expect a $3.5M - $4M order for 1.41M cellular modules/gateways to follow yesterday's hubs order.

Was it the $2.5M order on 04/08/2022?

JC is definitely saying that there is a Cyan Omnimesh cellular communication module in every one of the 1 million smart electricity and smart water meters in MENA.

If that is not the case, the RNS needs to be corrected IMO.

If it is the case, how did the customer get the 1M cellular communication modules? I don't remember that sale being reported. The Genus/Bihar 1M order was is our largest order to date.

Am I wrong?

ITT

Hi jakeandelwood

Well done on finding a trading strategy that works with Cyan.

IMO, this is now a binary bet i.e. is Cyan's tech being used substantially by Genus or not?

If so, great. When that fact gets confirmed, the SP could easily increase by 100% on the same day.

If not, I'm struggling to see what the point is of Cyan existing at all.

GL

ITT

Four orders (three with IntelliSmart) received in the last five months and the SP is 45% down since the first one landed.

It seems being in IntelliSmart's camp isn't cutting the mustard with the market.

It seems that, one way or another, JC needs to prove that Cyan hasn't been used (abused), then dumped by Genus.

ITT

From the Trading Update (06/07/2023):-

"Higher proportion of revenue from Middle East, albeit on lower margin hardware, affecting forecast overall gross margin. While it is too early to determine at this stage, it is expected that as a result Adjusted EBITDA will also be lower than market expectation."

My guess is we're back in this territory, which might explain today's SP reaction.

ITT

Hi LTI

Thanks for getting to the bottom of the late submission of the company's accounts.

Cheers

ITT

I see one of our suppliers (SOLI) is bouncing back well after losing about a third of its value since August. Now 'only' 15% down.

Whereas Cyan has lost half of its value during the same period and shows no sign of reversing any of that loss.

Last year's were late being submitted too. It's obviously a Cyan thing i.e. the slapdashery.

Hi chuffedtobits

I totally agree. On the 25/07/2023 the accounts were signed off. That's more than three months to get them filed properly - there's no excuse.

It takes less than a minute to check Co House's to ensure that something has been filed properly.

ITT

Here's the missing 'h' (as has happened).

Hi tonyj

I was going to provide you with the link to the relevant page on IntelliSmart's website but they're having a technical glitch and their site isn't working, so I can't.

As as happened with many other Cyan collaborations, whatever was going on with Genus could just fade away and never be mentioned again. There's no requirement for Genus to say anything and good luck with getting confirmation from Cyan.

ITT

ITT

Hi tonyj

20% of the 250 million smart meters equates to several billion of dollars. Do you honestly think that the GoI would be so stupid as to leave their grand project and themselves exposed by a £25M UK AIM listed minnow. I don't.

IMO, 5% - 7.5% is their max.

ITT

Hi tonyj

Even with IntelliSmart (IS), they (Cyan) only seem to be involved with about 25% of what IS have installed. On IntelliSmart's website, they claim to have installed over 4 million smart meters - Cyan have supplied them with just over 1 million modules to date.

Market expectations for 2023/2024 can be met from existing orders and working through them. It's the following year's expectations i.e. revenue of £35M for 2024/2025 that's going to miss by a mile, unless things change here. That's why the SP has been shot to pieces - nobody that matters believes that they'll get anywhere near £35m.

Perhaps Genus have made alternative plans. Things have gone extremely quiet on that front - nothing from them to report in 2023, unless I'm mistaken.

ITT

Two years on the trot the company's accounts have been filed late with Companies House. Finally, this year's were filed in Friday - almost a month overdue.

At least that's one question mark out of the way.

Are they going to win business from anyone other than IntelliSmart is another. I'm beginning to think not.

ITT

The rot set in nearly 2 years ago, with the SP dropping 2/3 (66%) during that time i.e. from 28p-29p to 9.75p today.

One or two timed it well, getting out at 28.3p - can't fault it.

....has CC as number 7 in their 'Companies smashing broker forecasts' article dated 17/10/2023 (Tuesday).

Perhaps that helped to stop the rot.

GL

ITT

Hi tonyj

That is exactly the point that I have been attempting to make.

It would be ridiculous business-wise for G to have umpteen different softwares (doing similar things) to be working with.

Pick a good one and stick with it.

Fingers crossed it's Cyan's.

ITT