Buy recommendation for AZN from Killik8 Mar 2024 21:16
• In the early 2010s, AstraZeneca was facing one of the largest “patent cliffs” in the pharmaceutical industry, with around half of its sales expected to lose patent protection by 2016. In 2014, the company faced further pressure as it battled to fend off an acquisition attempt from US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer.
• To combat these dual threats, management committed to reinvent the product portfolio through internal R&D with a goal of eventually doubling sales to over $45bn annually by 2023. Despite widespread scepticism, the company achieved these lofty targets (with a modest net contribution from acquisitions partially offset by unfavourable FX).
• Growth and innovation continues today, with AstraZeneca initiating 27 Phase III trial results in 2023, including ten with blockbuster potential, alongside 24 regulatory approvals in major markets and four new medicine approvals. The company expects to launch at least 15 new medicines by 2030.
• AstraZeneca’s Oncology division is one of the leading global cancer franchises, with a range of blockbuster products including Tagrisso, Lynparza and Imfimzi. Cancer is the second leading cause of death globally with an estimated 20 million people diagnosed annually, a number that is set to rise to almost 28 million a year by 2040. We expect growth in Enhertu, a targeted treatment for breast cancer, alongside as-yet-unreleased oncology treatments to drive sales growth in the medium term in this division.
• AstraZeneca’s BioPharmaceuticals division is comprised of three subdivisions: Cardiovascular, Renal & Metabolism; Respiratory & Immunology, and Vaccines & Immune Therapies. Key products include Farxiga for Type-2 diabetes and Fasenra for asthma. In both cases there remains a significant unmet need globally.
• Following completion of the $39bn Alexion acquisition in July 2021, AstraZeneca began reporting sales for its new Rare Disease division. It’s leading blockbuster, Soliris, which treats a range of rare diseases, is gradually being replaced in some cases by Ultomiris, also now a blockbuster. Of the over 7,000 rare diseases that have been identified, only approximately 5%
• One area of concern for all drug companies is pricing headwinds. In the all-important US market, there are credible plans to lower branded drug costs after years of inaction, although we believe change will be slow and AstraZeneca will be relatively well placed given US revenues are 42% of total sales, lower than many global pharmaceutical peers.