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LGO, Thanks for the link at 11.10. I rather wish I'd read this before piling into MTR. That fundraising in August took me by surprise. Greatland did one at the same time (also a surprise); but the difference is Greatland recovered, and MTR did not.
LGO, Thanks for the post of 14.51. You're a wiser and a richer man than myself, that much is clear. On the matter of the billboard, I will always defend freedom of speech (and have defended Joebop, Kinsa etc. in the past). A difference of opinion is not a declaration of war. If one thinks about it, one may disagree with someone on one matter, and agree with him about another. Also, people change their minds, as the facts change.
Casey, Your remark at 15.11 is too kind to me. I didn't foresee anything in the summer, which is why I'm now nursing a large loss. My point was that during the autumn, the risks of a slowdown in China and in the US (partly caused by the huge deficit and the trade war) became much more apparent, and may have motivated people to sell more risky assets (including MTR and MOD). On the matter of Charles H., Rick Rule etc., they may be right about the company, but wrong about the global economy. Or right about both. Who knows?
Another factor might be the dismal performance of MOD on the LSE. Number of trades per day has fluctuated between zero and two, which is truly depressing. Once upon a time, we believed the London listing would benefit us; and it may do in the future; but it hasn't done so far.
Nice post, Casey. Maybe one factor in the fall is shareholders anticipating a global downturn, a bear market and a collapse in the copper price, and getting out before that happens. One could imagine a dire scenario, where MOD take on debt to finance the mine, the copper price plunges, and MOD goes belly up (something similar happened to Beacon Hill Resources, a few years ago). MTR would survive, but it would be most unpleasant. I don't say it's likely, but it is possible.
Joebop, Thanks for the posts yesterday. The headline should be "Bonker" or "Bonker's absence," not "Impecunious1," because you're not talking about me. Happy New Year.
Is best regarded as a buy signal.
LGO, thanks for this. I did make the point, and quoted from the prospectus, at the time of the London listing.
Thanks for your remarks on this. I'm no expert; but it's clear that copper rises and falls in line with the global economy. It's unlike gold, which people buy when they're frightened, and is probably the best asset to hold in 2019.
The main risk is the copper price; in the last bear market, it fell to US$ 1.5/lb. (The PFS for T3 estimates US$ 1.78 as breakeven). Upside potential includes an IPO of Kalahari Metals and the Thai assets; and a recovery in the share price of MOD.
I agree with Keith on this; fact and opinion should be clearly separated, and this is what happens at the moment. Like other companies, we get first the technical stuff (which I never understand), followed by a comment from the CEO. As for LGO's remark that he doesn't trust people who don't sell, I find this quite extraordinary. The implication is that the only people he trusts are spin doctors and conmen. Like Donald Trump, for example. A road to ruin, if ever there was one.
Trust should be given to those who tell the truth, and are modest about their achievements.
Cashking, It's silly to be always negative (unless you seriously believe this company is going to go pop, which is possible; but unlikely, because it has no debt). If you look at Bonker or Joebop (both of whom know much more than I do), you can see their opinion changes, when the facts change. This has to be the way forward. Best wishes, etc.
Louis, thanks for recent post. You are more bullish on MTR than myself; my guess is that we (= MTR shareholders) will muddle through to "success" (= share price above 3p by December next year). But you can rely on me to be wrong; so doubtless the share price will either plummet to 0.1p (hello darkness, my old friend), or quadruple to 5p. Chin up, etc.
Funky, Thanks for recent post on this. I'd forgotten about the silver; my favourite metal, as it happens (copper coming a close second). Gold, I have always considered rather vulgar.
Thanks for this, LGO. I'm all in favour of parody, particularly when it's directed against people much richer than myself.
Joebop, You may be right about this, particularly as MTR themselves have led the way.
Good to see the share price holding steady.
I'm very glad to see that spread has come down, to about 6%.
The argument against my previous post on this (which said that if the management is bad, one should sell; if it's good, one should also sell, in order to buy the underlying assets), is that parts of the portfolio cannot easily be replicated by the private investor, e.g. the holding in Kalahari Metals, which is not a listed company, and the holding in MOD, where the spread is a crucifixion (though, interestingly, it has fallen from 25% to 12%). In theory, of course, the argument applies to all investment trusts; but usually, they invest in a large number of companies, so the costs of replication are high (because of commissions). Allow me to note in passing that most investment trusts trade at a discount to NAV. And as for myself, I curse the day I ever left the main market. I used to make money there, I was a happy man. Now plunged in misery and despair, etc. But holding, of course; the imperial guard may die, mais elle ne se rend pas.
Or evening guys? Hard to tell, Joebop. I agree with you on Michael M.