Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I've never seen a graph on a stock I'm invested in go UP the cliff wall.
DGR1980 that's a good point.
Do we know if these options had dates attached? I think that is four employees that have recently exercised.
I am with SBK and sceptical that they will come back from Togo with a Licence. I initially invested here for the Togo mine with CAI being a bonus. I've invested more here recently because of Togo and really hope the Licence is on the way, but until the RNS stating such then I will not believe it.
At some point someone on hear mentioned they were using Degiro to buy/sell Artemis resources. I've signed up and can not find them on there. Is there some setting I need to set?
You _MUST_ remember that doing a bed&isa does not resolve you of paying your CGT bill. You must pay it on the value of profit from when you purchased to when you bed&isa.
@Markyess I take it back our figures are not so similiar. My figures for year 5 based on values from page 5 of the latest presentation($290/ton revenue, $92/ton cost, 48,000tpa, 51% accountable to KRS, USD:GBP 0.76) gives
($290 -$ 92) * 48000 = $9504000 * 0.51 = $4847040 * 0.76 = £3683750.4
Or as I like to calculate it (Total Shares + All Warrants = 5850365185) ~0.0006 a share.
* Were there any outstanding warrants before the latest announcement?
I'd be interested in your assumptions and maffs. My year 5 figure was $8.6 million so with your USD:GBP we are in the same ball park. I have taken no account of projected growth other than they will be shipping 48kton in year 5.
The other simple way is to use their projections of between 2% and 14% of $2.5 billion. So, if they achieve this then the turnover is between $50 - $350 million dollars a year @ year 10. As you point out this is, probably, well beyond the limits of the mine and at 900ktons p.a would mean we could only do it for 2 years(surface minable) or 4 years in total.
I think my concerns are:
The resource estimate seems very finger in the air. The latest presentation quotes different figures for the current "surface mineable" resource. This needs to be JORC'ed with solid figures ASAP.
They are expecting, within 5 years, to have a modest 14% of the American market. To me this seems like a stretch, to displace the incumbents and take that much market share. @Markyess I think the 900ktons you quote maybe wrong. If you see page 13 of the latest presentation. The three graphs(3rd is the most important) show what percentage of ROCK phosphate they are attempting to supply. This is different to the total of 14% of all organic fertiliser. HOWEVER, I will admit I'm not sure if the 14% applies to ROCK phosphate or all organic fertiliser.
Finally, and hopefully a simple one, "$468k capex, funded by the additional $1.8m loan" we have lent them $1.8 million to cover a $468k capex?
Which presentation has been updated?
Well today has not panned out as I expected in a good way.
Have to admit this has thrown me and I don't know what to think.
I'd come to the conclusion this was a a 50/50 bet on if Togo became a NoGo(Thanks to whoever said that before it made me smile) or not but I was fine with that given the strength of CAI shares. I'm expecting the share price to fall significantly, although I have some hope it might hold up at 0.12p given that was the price of the new shares.
I say $2.5 million as that is what the individual tranches add up to.
@Markyess where did you get the $1.7m from?
I'd spotted this but assumed I had read it wrong, as I didn't think it made sense. We are providing them a loan of $2.5 million and in return we get 51% of a company that has a profit of $18.5 million(My back of an envelope calculations) in the next 5 years. I felt I'd missed something because if you could prove that level of profit in 5 years you'd have thought that getting a hold of $2.5 would not be to hard.
The first $1.1 million is paid back from the 70% of profits.
I did say slightly.
According to the RNS they personally invested the initial $700,000 to fund the construction of access roads, the bulk sample and the metallurgical test work which were all completed in 2019. Is this normal? For directors to invest personally and then move it over to the company they run. To me this seems odd but for all I know its normal.
@JimBL I think its slightly better than that as we should own 51% in 7 months from now.
No that is the profit for the first 5 years of the mine. Based on my simple assumptions you get:
Year 1 220000
2 1232437.5
3 2981250
4 5466437.5
5 8688000
My back of the Envelope calculations(as I don't smoke) show over the next 5 years the mine should make a profit of $18,588,125 giving Keras Resources $9,294,062 or $0.001909997 a share.
* This assumes a linear ramp up of ktpa and a linear ramp down of operating costs and the price staying at the current $273 spot price(this is expected to rise)
** My calculations are quite often wrong!
Yes. More than doubles the number of shares if you take account of the warrants(which I usually do).
Well I'm glad you here because my first set of "Maths" is not working out. I suspect I'm using the wrong "Tons" like last time.