Member Info for idkmybffjill

There is no RNS filing on that date. So where is the info from?

NoQuestionMarks, where did you find this info?

I would not want this taken over. They’ll steal it at a low price vs. where it can be on its own.

They have only spent $42 million so far.

All pharma has endless stream of litigation.

Worst case if multiple never goes up, they can keep buying cheap shares.

Thank you for sharing. I think the misleading prescription data + the larger than expected legal settlement are what’s keeping us down here.

We also have pros who own 10% of the company. Why are only the short sellers correct? And where are you finding the info that Balyasny is short?

INDV faces increased competition across its product portfolio, along with unexpected legal liabilities this year. However, there are several reasons to believe the market may be overly pessimistic about the company's prospects.

On the negative side, INDV faces stiffer competition:

- Sublocade's market share growth has slowed since Brixadi’s launch as a rival injectable buprenorphine product. However, Symphony and IQVIA data differ on the severity of the impact, and IQVIA may be undercounting Sublocade’s sales in key channels like criminal justice.

- Generic competition continues to chip away at Suboxone’s market share, with new generic entries from Apotex and Teva expected in 2023.

- Teva launched an injectable risperidone product that appears superior to INDV’s Perseris on duration and injection pain. Early signs suggest Perseris prescriber share has stalled in response.

- Legal liabilities from opioid litigation exceeded INDV’s reserves, creating a $228 million greater payment than expected

However, several factors suggest the market reaction may be overblown:

- Sublocade retains first-mover advantage and can still grow despite Brixadi’s launch, especially with expanded access through new criminal justice and Albertsons programs. INDV’s new North Carolina manufacturing investment signals confidence in reaching $1.5 billion peak sales.

- Suboxone has weathered years of generics and maintains brand loyalty due to higher street value. Alvogen is rapidly losing share to Apotex as the leading Suboxone generic.

- The Opiant acquisition brings pipeline promise through Opvee, a next-gen overdose drug. INDV’s new BARDA deal, worth up to $111M, validates Opvee’s potential and supports adoption by government agencies.

- Adjusting for $60M in Opiant operating expenses, INDV’s base business would generate over $300M in operating profit this year. Valuing legal liabilities as debt, INDV trades at 8x operating income ex-Opiant with room for growth as Sublocade expands.

- INDV’s $100M buyback authorization and rapid pace of $500K-$1M daily repurchases signal a shareholder-friendly approach, supported by board-level representation. Strong cash flow enables future capital returns.

In summary, while INDV faces real near-term headwinds, the stock appears to discount an overly pessimistic scenario.

No, the selloff was because of a Jeffries note that went out that incorrectly indicates that Sublocade was starting to lose market share to Brixadi. Except their date didn’t include all the prescriptions Sublocade has through the US prison system, as well as other channels.

Which is just insane

Based on todays RNS filing, looks like this lawsuit got tossed by the court in favor of Indivior.

They’ve been buying 50K+ shares a day so far. So about $850,000 a day. At that rate, they will finish the buyback in 6 months. Wish they front loaded it and did more now at these prices.

Private DMs over twitter my friend.

If we can take the discussion off this site, I’m happy to share details. Post an email address where I can contact you?

Given the relief rally in the stock today, the dumping is hopefully done…

I read some discussion online that INDV got sold off because several hedge fund managers blew up during this earnings season and had to cut their risk across the board. Many bought into INDV before earnings and the final lawsuit settlement and then turned around and had to dump the stock due to other big losses in their portfolio.

If true, this would explain the ongoing selloff from earnings report, which seems completely unwarranted.

Sublocade is growing at 50% a year, and it’s already 60% of total revenue. The ROW revenue can’t fall fast enough to offset how fast Sublocade is growing….

Also, Perseris doesn’t really move the needle at all for total revenue. So I can’t see why it’s so important?

Just feels like people are selling first, asking questions later.

Anyone understand why the earnings report made the stock sell off? Baffling

Maintenance in August.

I wonder if it’s due to USD strengthening….USD bottomed in July and is up 7-8% against most major currencies since then.

If you look at the numbers presented in the settlement PR today, Sublocade revenue growth remains strong but overall revenue growth has slowed down. Which means they’ve lost revenue somewhere outside of Sublocade. And operating profit is barely above Q3 2022. I hope this is due to the expenses involved with ramping up OPVEE for Q4.

They had a good chance to score something significantly lower than what they just paid out based on precedent and the history of antitrust charges similar to what they were being charged with. I’m disappointed they didn’t score something lower relative to the remaining initial provision, but I guess we can finally move on at least.