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To add, given the cash shortfall, there is a possibility that a duster could effectively bust bpc, but the company has shown itself as being capable of sourcing and executing funding. I'd expect a long road up from a duster, and a much less attractive investment opp, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it move on to develop the cerp assets. Potter could move on though?

You'll never know, and we'll never know whether Koots left in the knowledge of the possible results, good or bad. He's had the opp to take up a CEO position in a company with which he has strong connections and as a native countryman, after effectively losing that role in cerps as part of the merger.

Unless we start to get large sells on volume, nothing should be read into any negative thoughts. Otherwise, nothing's changed - this is very much a binary play. Ask yourself, how would I feel tmo if my holdings in bpc were worth 1p a share - and being locked in at that price or thereabouts for the next 6-9 mths - vs the possibility of them being worth 12p a share if P1 comes in. If you are happy with that, then chill. If not, sell.

bpc do indeed deserve at least some respect for having got this far. I do think they could have opened up the funding opps to PIs even more (though also appreciate why they didn't).

However, again and again, and again, 'funding' is not to be confused with cash. Funding refers to financial arrangements in place. Cash is what has been raised against the funding. Currently, there is a £12m cash shortfall if you were to include CERPs development, or £7m if they were to defer CERPs development, as they have already cautioned.

In the event of a duster, that sort of additional overhang - possibly a billion shares were bpc to go just over 1p- would take much of 2021 to move on.

Hi Tilburn,

Whilst bpc have been very opaque in their funding, it was probably in response to growing criticism that they released the mother of all funding notes. It's a hard read, but I'd urge you and others to make time to go through it carefully.

Again, I'm totally open to being corrected, but I think it's clear that whilst CERP is possibly a hedge, it's certainly not a straightforward one. They do not currently have the cash to develop it unless they give it preference rather than to the £12m debt obligations for licences, legals, JR, and merger costs etc, or else they will need to raise the £12m on the CLN.

Again, they say they have raised the £5m initial development, plus they are allowing £1m for op costs. Against this, they have obligations of £12m, for which cash needs to be raised. So in the event of a duster, they'd have a £7m shortfall in their obligations, even if they were to put CERPs dev on hold.

What I'm not clear on - and would need to go back to re-read - is the conditions of the CLN - would those conditions still apply if P1 doesn't come through? And even if they can still tap into the CLN, how long would it take at what SP to off-load the required £12m worth of shares before they can steady the ship and actually begin any development works?

Tilburn, but the problem is, they don't have cash set aside for the CERP development. They have costs for the development of the cerp assets, ops, legal, licensing, and merger costs, for which there is currently a £12m cash shortfall overall. As has been posted before, no guarantee that the big £12m cost highlighted in the RNS for licensing, JR, merger costs etc won't have to come first, and so the CERP work deferred, as has been posted below.

fees and other fixed licence expenses, business development expenses, merger costs, fundraising fees, repayment of Lind facility consequent on the merger with Columbus, and various other items, inclusive of an estimated $1.5 million in legal fees that have been or are expected to be incurred in relation to defending environmental legal actions in The Bahamas.

Immediately more important than the question "what are CERP assets worth" is the cash gap against arranged funding. They appear to have £6m cash raised to develop cerp assets plus ops costs. However, they have a 12m cash shortfall to cover:

" fees and other fixed licence expenses, business development expenses, merger costs, fundraising fees, repayment of Lind facility consequent on the merger with Columbus, and various other items, inclusive of an estimated $1.5 million in legal fees that have been or are expected to be incurred in relation to defending environmental legal actions in The Bahamas.

This is due to be funded by the £12m remaining on the CLN, but that was on the basis of a 2p share price, which won't be the case if P1 doesn't come in.

That's either going to mean much more than a 600m share dilution and /or delayed development of the CERP assets. It isn't going to be pretty is P1 doesn't come in.

This is my reading, happy for others to correct/provide thoughts.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BPC/funding-strategy-reconciliation-put-option-q1fivhxlfqfrlak.html

ShareScare, yes do agree that were they to think at this stage it was duster then it would be quite unbelievable to do that tweet - and I wouldn't credit them to do that. Just that of course it all be quite immaterial at this stage until they have reached TD.

ShareScare, so as I said, nothing in that tweet that's new.

But more importantly, of course, a company cares about it's SP! Higher the SP the more cash they can raise without excess dilution, and the easier with which it can be raised.

And of course, BPC would have a particular interest in seeing the share price higher before the drill, as it would reduce the risk/possibility that they have to use their cash reserves to compensate LO.

Or perhaps they are just encouraging new investors to join up from the goodness of Mr Pottor's heart.

stevenwest, first of all, I'm not sure there was anything in that tweet that was different to what the company has been saying for mths, and they are still weeks away from TD. But besides, what would be the benefit to bpc in encouraging more investors to buy in cheap now? Would be interested to understand the thinking here.

Use of the option agreement? BPC have made the Put, they have no exercise over the Call, and which in the scheme of things is smallish beer at an extra 185m shares. And are you suggesting Lombard would be in the know?

Or are you talking about drawing the 600 million shares on the CLN?

As someone has said on another forum, if you think they've perhaps hit oil, then keep quiet and accumulate. Otherwise, why the constant ramping?

The ramping on these boards over the last two weeks, in particular, has by far lacked all grace and honesty, and at times been ludicrous. None of this matters to those who are LTHs or fully familiar with the share. For that are less familiar and or are new to investing, I hope the results turn out sunny side up. The rampers won't care either way.

I actually found the Koots vid interesting.

How did I read that as 2 weeks, rather than 'weeks'? Either way.

Nope, the company tweeted today that they are 2 weeks away from the results.

Well, one thing I know for sure - and here's a tip for all - wherever the MMs do place the price should there be a duster then that typically is where the SP ends when the dust has settled. Remember that when and if we find ourselves in a dead cat situation. Whilst funds for the remainder of the work for 2021 haven't all been raised yet, I can't see this being below 1p.

What is ridiculous about that? We know if it's a duster this will be below 2p but that if there is positive news then you won't be able to buy in below 4p.

laallee - we of course know it's actually the conch fishermen

Pish.

he didn't say what day?

I think the problem with rocket is that his ramps even out his deramps.