Member Info for ICB888

A positive start as the buying continues Up 4.82% on volume of 450000 in the first 10 minutes of trading

As Gold reaches an All Time High let’s just revisit the value of Condors Gold as set out in this summary of the BFS in September 2022 and is the basis for the current sale process:

“ The Company's strategy has been to develop the fully permitted La India Project in 2 stages using the new SAG Mill that has already been purchased. The delivery of a Feasibility Study on La India open pit with an average of 81,524 oz gold per annum for the initial 6 years for a relatively low total upfront capital cost of US$106 Million is a landmark and further de-risks the Project. At US$1,600 oz gold, the La India open pit Mineral Reserve produces total revenues of US$888 Million, the total operating costs of mining, process and G&A are US$480M, leading to an operating profit of US$408 Million or a 46% operating margin. After government and other royalties, but before sustaining capital, the operating profit is US$355M, which in Condor's opinion is ample to repay any project debt on the relatively low upfront capex. At US$2,000 oz gold after paying royalties, but before sustaining capital the operating profit is US$563 Million. In reality, two permitted high grade feeder pits will be added during the early years of production thus increasing production ounces of gold. Early production is targeted at 100,000 oz gold p.a..”

The highest Gold price used was 2000 and gold has just smashed through 2100.

Polo Resources (POL) is the first that springs to mind.

Ceed

I think most investors share your frustration with what has been going on at SHG and understand your wish to make a complaint. However when embarking on making a complaint it is worth looking at what remedy you are seeking and what remedies the AIM regulators are able to offer. I think you will find the AIM regulators have very limited powers. If they accept there is a valid complaint they will refer it to the Nomad to sort it out. If the Nomad can’t get the company to act in accordance with the rules they will be obliged to resign, whereupon the shares will be suspended. If a new nomad is appointed in 1 month the company will be delisted. I think this is a very poor system because delisting the shares puts the shareholders in a very bad situation. So be careful what you wish for if you go down the complaint route as you may well be playing into the Patel’s hands . Let the II’s who have been buying all the shares sort it out as the last thing any of us want is for the shares to be delisted. Do your own research to check out if I am on the right lines as to what could happen.

If you recall in the recent past CNR were trying to set up a toll mining deal with Calibre using Calibres underutilised mill( it remains underutilised). The attraction of this was that could commence almost immediately and would have provided cash for CNR while they conducted the sales process or started construction of the mine. It would therefore appear to be the case that Calibre could start making money from Condors Gold from the day they completed the purchase.

The share consolidation will have no impact on the value of the company ie the market cap of the company on the day of the consolidation will remain the same as will the value of individual holdings. Just read the RNS:

“ Proposed Share Consolidation

The Board is of the view that it would benefit the Company and the Company's shareholders to reduce the number of Existing Ordinary Shares in issue by consolidating the Existing Ordinary Shares on the basis of 1 New Ordinary Share of 2p for every 20 Existing Ordinary Shares of 0.1p each ("Share Consolidation"). This is expected to assist in reducing the volatility in the Company's share price and enable a more consistent valuation of the Company, making the Company's shares more attractive to institutional shareholders.

The effect of the Share Consolidation will be that shareholders holding Existing Ordinary Shares on the Company's register of members at 6:00 p.m. on 26 March 2024 will, on the implementation of the Share Consolidation, hold:

1 New Ordinary Share for every 20 Existing Ordinary Shares held on 26 March 2024.

The Share Consolidation requires the approval of the Company's shareholders by way of ordinary resolution at the GM ("Consolidation Resolution"). Accordingly the Directors unanimously recommend shareholders to vote in favour of the Consolidation Resolution to be proposed at the GM.

As all shareholdings in the Company will be consolidated, the number of ordinary shares held by each shareholder will be reduced as a result of the Share Consolidation, but the percentage of the total issued ordinary share capital of the Company held by each shareholder immediately before and following the Share Consolidation will, save for fractional entitlements, remain unchanged.”

Particularly note that it is being done to reduce volatility in the share price and enable a more consistent valuation of the company and make it more attractive to Institutional Shareholders.

Seingred

Those are facts not manipulated facts. Just to make the point in another way let’s look at Newmont the world’s largest Gold miner which I purchased a small holding of for my wife’s SIPP 4 months ago. It’s currently down 20%. Look at the comparable performance of CNR and Newmont (NEW) over 6 and 12 months

Last 6 months CNR -8.7%. NEW -20%

Last 12 months CNR +30% NEW -28%

It has been a terrible market for Gold equities of all sizes over the last 2 years and very few deals have been done particularly in the Junior space. This is widely tipped by the likes of Ross Beatty as the year that will change. Let’s see if Jim can start that ball rolling with the sale of CNR at a good price which reflects the rising gold price.

I posted this in December and it’s just as relevant now as all gold equities continue to have a complete disconnect with the Gold Price:

“ I think we had already worked out before they told us that the sales process was taking longer than expected. What we need to remember is how unloved the gold mining sector has been during the sales period despite the rising gold price. I came across a bb on advfn the other day (which I can’t relocate at the moment) which amongst other things produces a performance table for gold and silver companies since the start of 2023. At that time CNR was Up 56% and number 5 on the list. The average performance of al the companies was - 15% (MINUS 15%)

So a very poor market in which to strike a deal even though all the experts are saying now is the time when the big boys will start paying big money for the juniors. It is encouraging that CNR are in advanced discussions with 2 gold miners as that suggests a bidding situation.”

It is simply stating the shares acquired mostly by Jim Mellon and some by Mark over the last year in the placings and Jim exercising warrants and converting loan notes. It all there in various RNS. There is nothing new in the piece but the point still stands that acquisitions by insiders is usually a very positive sign as they are clearly only increasing their holdings because they think the shares will increase in value.

As the US starts the week there have been 2 trades at full offer 17p. Perhaps we will see this tick up again to build on the 6.45% rise we have seen so far on volume of just 116000.

Times Business today has an article on potential takeover targets due to low valuations in London. One of the companies they feature is Diageo:

“ Diageo

Banking sources took the unusual step this month of denying there was any dealmaking afoot when The Times reported rumours of a bid for Diageo. The FTSE 100 drinks maker had a wobble recently when it issued a profit warning, started a search for a new chairman and brought in Rothschild's bankers to serve up Pimm's to new - investors. Jefferies' analysts said they had no idea if anyone would want to buy Pimm's.

Debra Crew, Diageo's new chief executive, has been having "tough conversations" about how to restore the company's reputation as a solid stock. Diageo's share price now sits at £29.86 and, with food and - beverage businesses attracting average premiums of 41 per cent, it is thought that the guardian of Guinness could change hands for £94 billion.“

Thanks to Nero for the post about what Mark has said . It does seem to indicate we are close to a deal although we are obviously aware of the tight legal constraints he is under regarding market sensitive information.

Thanks also to Condor forever for that video link. Particularly interesting when he highlights Calibre’s takeover of Marathon as an example of value creating M&A activity. Calibre is commended as a very good company in Nicaragua that has acquired a company in Canada, which will add a lot of value when it is in full production in a year or so.

I have always thought how Calibre is a perfect illustration of how successful Condors mine can be. It also makes me think how insane it would be for Calibre not to buy Condor as they are next door neighbours and Calibre has an underutilised mill. The synergies and cost savings from having Calibres existing management run Condors mine would be a clear major benefit and they would recoup their investment in 12 months.

Sol100

As you correctly state Rick Rule definitely does not think POW is a waste of time. He has strict investment criteria he applies before making an investment and he hasn’t taken the decision to acquire over 4% of the company lightly. Whilst he recognises early stage companies are inherently risky he is looking to choose the good ones which will be at least 10 baggers.

Could you point me in the direction of where you obtained the information that there are only 31 investors in POW.

The US buyers can buy shares on the UK market, which is almost certainly what they are doing as the OTC won’t have liquidity. It appears from his interviews that Oliver is planning a big push to attract serious US investors. One would imagine there will be big interest in the US for a strategic tungsten asset in Nevada.

POW own 61% and 2 other holders have 10% between them meaning that the free float is quite small. The warrants that are likely to be exercised soon are mostly in the hands of POW and those 2 large shareholders so they are unlikely sell their new shares or sell any shares to fund the purchase of the warrant shares. Serious US buying is highly likely to push the sp up quite sharply.

JLP has often been compared to SLP which has had the attraction of a large dividend compared to no dividend at JLP. SLP’s share price has been suffering for sometime but following its results this week Simon Thompson has written an article about SLP as a recovery buy. It’s worth a read because of the similarities with JLP and here are some comments about the commodities:

“However, analysts at brokerage Liberum Capital note that PGM executives believe that better PGM prices are “just around the corner”, a view based on an easing of the de-stocking by carmakers and glass fibre producers. Slowing electrical vehicle penetration rates is another positive as consumers continue to favour internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicles, both of which use PGM metals in the auto catalyst. Higher PGM prices have an accentuated impact on profits given the group’s relatively fixed cost base.”

And this about Chrome and PGM’s:

“ Importantly, Sylvania retains a strong balance sheet. Net cash of $107mn (30.5p) equates to almost half book value of $229mn (65.5p) and is funding a joint venture (JV) with a subsidiary of ChromTech Mining to leverage Sylvania’s expertise in the recovery of chrome and PGM concentrates. The JV will process PGM and chrome ores from historical tailings dumps and current arisings from the Limberg Chrome Mine on the northern part of the Western Limb of the Bushveld Complex. It will add attributable production of 6,500 4E PGM ounces and 200,000 tonnes of chromite concentrate to Sylvania’s existing production.

New secondary fine chrome and PGM beneficiation plants are set to become operational in the first half of 2025. Sylvania is lending its JV partner $16mn (annual interest rate of 11.75 per cent) to cover its share of the $32mn total capital investment with the loan secured on 2mn tonnes of existing chrome tailings.

Given the strength of the chrome price, analysts at Liberum believe that the JV could ultimately deliver 80 per cent of group revenue at current spot prices. They also note that Sylvania is exploring a similar JV opportunity on the Eastern Limb, adding that the pull-back in PGM prices relative to chrome may help move the agreements along.”

But in addition to PGM’s and Chrome JLP has its new main profit driver of copper ramping up which makes JLP look very attractive at is current bargain basement price.

TRR webinar at 2pm today which is always an hour well spent as Adam gives a full update and will answer any questions.

It is exactly 6 weeks since the RNS regarding the GSA being signed. It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves what we are now waiting for which could happen any day now, so here is the second half of the RNS:

“ Aminex now anticipates early issue of the Development Licence which will allow the award of a rig contract and enable the drilling of Chikumbi-1 and the workover of Ntorya-1. The testing of Ntorya-2 is now scheduled for mid-year using an in-country mobile test unit.

Despite the completion of an environmental impact assessment on the proposed pipeline to the Madimba Gas Plant and payment of all compensation to relevant landowners, there has been a delay in the construction of the pipeline. The Tanzanian authorities now expect the pipeline to be completed by the end of 2024. APT is working closely with the TPDC to expedite construction as soon as possible.

Aminex, with a 25% non-operated interest, is carried throughout the ongoing work programme to a maximum gross capital expenditure of $140 million ($35 million net to Aminex). The carry is expected to see the Company through to the commencement of commercial gas production from the Ntorya gas-field at zero cost to the Company.

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman of Aminex commented:

"The signing of the gas sales agreement with the TPDC marks a significant milestone for the Company and the development of the Ntorya field. We thank APT, as operator, and the Tanzanian authorities for their efforts in bringing the execution of the GSA to a close. At the signing today, the Tanzanian authorities expressed the importance of energy security for Tanzania and its people and the development of Ntorya is crucial to the provision of much-needed natural gas. The authorities also indicated that the Development Licence will be received very soon. We will provide a further update to the market on the progress of the other Ruvuma workstreams in due course."

It has taken an incredibly long time to get to this point , almost entirely due to delays by the Government. We are very close to the final piece of paper from the Government which they have indicated “will be received VERY soon”. The next RNS can’t be many days away.

I think it is important to remember when discussing POW that the last 2 years in the mining and junior mining space have been dire. There has been little interest from investors and funds have been hard to come buy. POW has suffered because of the market and it’s not POW specific. The market is expected to turn this year and don’t forget that Rick Rule became a shareholder last year. I imagine he was attracted by what is now GMET in Nevada which is the number 1 US mining area and in my view the jewel in POW’s crown. Having listened to the POW CEO on the Sunday Roast we will very soon get an announcement about the Uranium spin off company which will hold some but not all of POW’s Uranium assets. Also there will be announcements regarding Saudi Arabia which POW is very enthusiastic about.

If GMET secures the US Government funding it seems very well placed for, we could see a rerate in the shareprice and that should also lift POW.

Just to complete the picture that TEK is firing on all cylinders

LUCY was Up 2% on Friday

BELL is Up 4% this morning following an RNS confirming the successful acquisition of 96% of TMT Aquisitions.

I think it is appropriate to bring some focus onto Guident as the importance of the recent RNS Guident expands its strategic partnership was rather overshadowed by the Microsalt announcement on the same day.

Simon Thompson last commented on 1st February on the day of the Microsalt IPO:

“ The same is true of the company’s $18.3mn (8.1p) investment in Guident, a developer of remote monitoring and control centre (RMCC) software that improves the safety of autonomous vehicles and delivery robots.

Guident has signed software as a service (SaaS) agreements with European partners to provide its RMCC software for fixed-route electric bus services, having delivered its first remote monitoring and control services order to Jacksonville Transportation Authority in Florida. The company has also been awarded funding from Space Florida for a ground breaking project under the Florida-Israel Innovation Partnership programme.

Bearing this in mind, Guident has engaged a leading US investment bank to raise capital for expanding its RMCC business. At the bare minimum, it should provide investors with clarity that there is significant value in Tekcapital’s investment in the company. It’s worth noting, too, that Guident is conducting testing and appraisal of its proprietary regenerative shock absorber technology after completing successful paid-for proof-of-concept trials with a major tyre company. This could be a potentially lucrative recurring revenue stream, too.

So, although Tekcapital is the laggard in my 2022 Bargain Shares Portfolio, and the share price is below the 13p level in my last article, the 54 per cent share price discount to my spot NAV estimate of 22.1p is incredibly harsh. Buy“

It will be interesting to see some increased valuation figures for Guident in the near future. Perhaps the success of the Microsalt IPO will cause them to consider an IPO for Guident.