Member Info for ICB888

GCM hit a low during July of 3.30p. It started August at 3.5p following the largest volume for a long time of 17.7 million on 28th July. It’s then moved up with a couple of spikes the highest to 5p. It closed Up 3.5% today which means it is Up 21% in a month. It appears the market is starting to take note of the potential of Phulbari as coal prices go ever higher. We are gearing up for another commodities super cycle and that will apply to coal as well. Let’s see if we can continue these gains as the week progresses.

I have listened to that interview with Mark an 2 gold and commodities chartists. The next gold up cycle will start in the next year or so and as in the past will run for 8 years or so with initial target of 2500 but it could then go a lot higher to 5000+. It is the same very bullish picture for all precious metals and commodities.
The other important point for Condor shareholders is Mark says the BFS will be published in a week to 10days. The interview was today 5th September so we should definitely have the BFS before the end of next week.

CEO feels another raise coming on. I don’t think anyone on here wants to know what he is doing behind closed doors but if it stops him commenting on CHAR so much the better.
The final results stated this:
“ Further to the successful equity fundraising of US$25.5m and $4 million Open Offer announced in June 2022, the Company is well financed to take the Anchois Gas Project through to FEED and FID, in addition to progressing the Company's wider asset portfolio.”

One thing Ed could and should do now is buy a substantial shareholding. I cannot believe after setting out all that information on Leap that he can still claim to be inside and prevented from buying. At todays sp he could buy 10% of SEED for £700000. As he said he would sell SEED for £50 million he could turn that £700000 into £5 million.

If SEED needs some cash then it can sell an investment in its £17.8 million portfolio but not LEAP at its current valuation.
The sp is starting to recover from its early lows. The bb as usual is awash with derampers who are using the favourite deramper tactic of spamming the bb with garbage posts and pretend arguments such that any sensible posts are lost. We even have a new troll from advfn retirement 12 who joined yesterday.
Let’s see what Ed has to say on Wednesday and don’t forget to ask your questions.

Regardless of what we may think of Ed ( and he certainly has a lot of explaining to do at the AGM) the investments that SEED have could be sold for £17.8 million. Following this mornings fall the market cap is £6.4 Million which is a totally irrational situation and anyone selling this morning has got to be mad. Remember this bb is plagued with deramping traders who just want your shares at a lower price.

The current NAV of SEED as of 31st August is £17,841,000.
The current market cap at Friday’s close is £7,120,000
The discount to NAV is over £10 Million which means the share price would need to increase by 150% to reach NAV.
Investors need to take a reality check and look beyond the well justified frustration and disappointment regarding Leap. Remember that a number of posters on here are traders keen to keep pushing the sp down. The current value of Leap is not far off our current market cap so every other investment is essentially free.
If you are thinking of selling over 8p per share NAV for 3.35p on Monday that would seem a very odd decision to me.
The current NAV is a reflection of the current state of the market and the lack of appetite for IPO’s is an obvious problem for SEED at present.
My suggestion would be that the Directors are instructed by the shareholders that when an investment is sold the proceeds are returned to Shareholders as a dividend. We need our money back at NAV not market cap. If, which I hope they don’t, they sell LEAP at its current valuation, they could return most of the current sp to shareholders. I very much doubt the market would then value the other £10 million worth of assets at zero.
Let’s hold Ed and the board to account and ensure we can extract the true value of our investment.

Midas
If we make the Directors distribute the proceeds of each sale as a dividend then we would get NAV back over time. It is the only way the Directors can address this totally unacceptable £10 million discount to NAV. The Directors have a duty to look after the best interests of shareholders and I believe returning funds at NAV if they have the opportunity is the only course of action they have open to them.

The current NAV of SEED as of 31st August is £17,841,000.
The current market cap at Friday’s close is £7,120,000
The discount to NAV is over £10 Million which means the share price would need to increase by 150% to reach NAV.
Investors need to take a reality check and look beyond the well justified frustration and disappointment regarding Leap. Remember that a number of posters on here are traders keen to keep pushing the sp down. The current value of Leap is not far off our current market cap so every other investment is essentially free.
If you are thinking of selling over 8p per share NAV for 3.35p on Monday that would seem a very odd decision to me.
The current NAV is a reflection of the current state of the market and the lack of appetite for IPO’s is an obvious problem for SEED at present.
My suggestion would be that the Directors are instructed by the shareholders that when an investment is sold the proceeds are returned to Shareholders as a dividend. We need our money back at NAV not market cap. If, which I hope they don’t, they sell LEAP at its current valuation, they could return most of the current sp to shareholders. I very much doubt the market would then value the other £10 million worth of assets at zero.
Let’s hold Ed and the board to account and ensure we can extract the true value of our investment.

ZEB Nickel Up 52% yesterday. We have had no news from ZEB since the Gold in April. Does this rise indicate that ZEB news is imminent?

Let’s recall the Chairman’s Statement in the 1st August RNS:
“ Charles Santos, Executive Chairman of Aminex commented:

"We are approaching exciting times for Aminex. The seismic acquisition programme is close to producing results over the core area of the Ntorya gas-field with the delineation of the final location for the CH-1 well. We are pleased that the target spud date for the well remains on track for November 2022. Moreover, the 3D seismic data will refine and hopefully confirm the exploitable gas resources of the Ntorya gas-field in which APT's revised mapping and internal management estimates currently suggest a risked prospective gas in place ("GIIP") of 3,024 Bcf (gross basis, mean case) within multiple reservoir sand lobes and a prospective risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf (gross basis, mean case)."
We know the 3D seismic was close to producing results and the first results would be used to finalise rig location. So that means ARA have seen some of the seismic. One must presume it is good news because they have just confirmed the purchase of SCIR’s 25%. I am expecting that the 3D seismic will lead to a significant increase in gas. Hopefully they will give some hints about that when they confirm the rig location. This would then be followed by a release of the full seismic later on. The seismic could trigger a major rerate putting the sp considerably higher by the time drilling commences.
The news in the last couple of days is actually very positive and the small pull back in the sp as a result of traders/derampers going on about delays will not last long.

Exactly no one is interested in your incessant deramping so turn it in. The actual investors are mainly long term holders who are waiting for the BFS and have no interest in the deramping traders that frequent this bb and advfn where the derampers are in overdrive today. The derampers know this is their last hurrah because when BFS comes out all their pathetic deramps will be exposed for the agenda driven garbage that is their stock in trade. The filter button is the best option.

Pleased to see you own up to being a deramping trader. That’s why you are straight on here trying to kick the strong likelihood of a bid down the road. We all know that a deramping trader’s worst nightmare is a 7.30 am out of the blue RNS announcing a bid. No chance to get back at the current price and missing out on a large gain. I am looking forward to it happening sooner rather than later.

An increasingly likely scenario with the BFS about to be issued containing all the information a bidder needs. Also I think Mark has always wanted to sell and now would be the ideal time so he doesn’t suffer further dilution on the financing required for production. Sold by Christmas would be a present I would be happy with as long as it’s well north of £1.

The Buy/Sell demarcations are being distorted by the spread the trades at 1.067 shown as sells are actually buys. The sells are at 1.0251.

AEX will have considerably more gas than Wentworth so the numbers will be different. The purpose of showing Wentworth’s numbers is to show how they are very profitable, debt free, buy back shares and have a 9% yield from producing gas in Tanzania. AEX will have a market cap many multiples of it current market cap.

I have closely followed Wentworth for years. It is a good indicator of what AEX will look like in the future when it too becomes a producer. We all know the Wentworth wanted to have the same 25% stake as AEX in Ruvuma.
This extract from Wentworth’s interims shows how good their financial position is in terms of cash in the bank, share buy backs and large dividends:
“ Dividend Declaration and Financial

· lnterim dividend of $1.45 million declared, an increase of 10% from H1 2021 ($1.32 million) or 15% on a per share basis, bringing the total distribution to shareholders to $7.9 million in the last 12 months

o dividend distribution of $5.5 million

o share buyback of $2.4 million representing approximately five per cent of the issued share capital (8.3 million shares)

o expected FY dividend distribution for 2022 would equate to a yield of approximately 9.0% based on the current share price

· Revenues grew 32% to $15.45 million (H1 2021: $11.7 million), due to sustained high levels of production at Mnazi Bay and higher gas price due to inflationary price mechanism

o low operational cost of production maintained at $0.45/Mscf (H1 2021: $0.49 Mscf); largely fixed insulating the Company from cost inflation

· Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and exploration (EBITDAX) increased by 43% to $9.6 million (H1 2021: $6.7 million)

· Strong financial position with $27.4 million cash (H1 2021: $22.8 million) and zero debt

· Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC") continues to remain fully current with all invoices for gas sales

· Tanzania Electric Supply Company ("TANESCO") continue to settle arrears”
The future for AEX and it’s shareholders looks very promising based on Wentworth’s success.

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman of Aminex commented:

"We are delighted that operational activities continue to progress on seismic acquisition and processing and look forward to providing further updates in due course. We are also very pleased that progress is being made on the commercial aspects of the development, with gas terms on the Ruvuma PSA being agreed and negotiations for the GSA currently ongoing. This progress reflects the commitment of the Operator and the Tanzanian authorities to work constructively together to advance this extremely important project for the Tanzanian energy sector. We would like to thank APT and the Tanzanian authorities for their cumulative efforts in progressing the project."
Again it’s important to note how keen Wentworth were to be part of this. They are already a producer and have gas agreements in place with the Government on Tanzania. They were clearly very confident that the agreements for gas currently being negotiated to replace the oil agreements will be on good terms.

The buys kicked back in 20 minutes ago and now exceed the sells 3.7 million/3.2 million.

Don’t forget yesterdays news that APT are so confident they have acquired 25% from SCIR such that they have 75% of Ruvuma. Wentworth who already produce gas in Tanzania wanted that 25%. This is progressing very well and just looks better every day.