SCP Equity Valuation following DFS25 Jul 2025 16:51
Ticker: SVM AU PF Cash: A$66m Project: Kasiya
Market cap: A$492m Price: A$0.76/sh Country: Malawi
REC. (unc): BUY TARGET (unc): A$1.60/sh RISK RATING (unc): HIGH
Today’s news of DFS geotechnical assessment work shows Sovereign advancing Kasiya through the final
detailed derisking studies ahead of the guided Q4 DFS (we expect October) - geotech and earthworks are
a key area where projects can go over budget so derisking this step - ground conditions, soil profile, etc is
key to delivering an on time and on budget build. The key here is the DFS starts the timer on Rio Tinto’s
180-day option to be the Kasiya project operator, which we think in essence provides the timeline on a
potential M&A deal (after this, Rio’s investor rights lapse). Rio is a major player in the Ti market and Kasiya
remains a unique project with 222ktpa of rutile production (high grade, lower impurities, less energy
intensive than synthetic rutile). We think Kasiya is an asset worthy of the majors: long-life US$200-300m
FCF/year (25 years per the PFS, 75 years based on the MRE). We maintain our BUY rating and our
A$1.60/sh price target based 0.7x SCPe NAV10% at LT US$1,400/t rutile and US$1,200/t graphite
concentrate prices. We think this is a best-in-class project, has the requisite cash flows (25-years PFS mine
life, >100-year MRE mine life, SCPe US$200-300m/year FCF), geopolitical and critical minerals angles to
get development bank and government support, and ultimately, we think this belongs to a major. If
standalone, the project has the margins and payback profile to be fundable and Sovereign is now well
funded to advance the project with a strong owner’s team to execute. Next catalysts include the DFS
(expected October 2025) which triggers Rio Tinto’s 180-day option to exercise its operatorship rights or
lose its investor protections.