focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Tony, I do enjoy your posts and agree that I have been silly at times on this message board compared to CEO dot com and Twitter etc. I will virtually shake your hand and leave the silliness behind.
“50% undervalued, and not sure what catalysts this team has to get the market to give it the valuation it thinks it deserves.”
canuck, enough of the negative bull****. did you listen to the webinar earlier this month? montney and clearwater drilling campaigns are starting later this year and will be ramping up in 2025. please just cut your loses and sell and buy $cnq. $ite laid out some very clear and realistic catalysts. not to mention that they are hedging 2025 at $3.40 or 3x current strip!!
Ha! I do regularly email IR and several of the questions from the webinar were mine! I bet that the stupidest question about when is a share buyback starting now that the capital reduction program was approved was from Tony!
Ah Tony you fell for it. A long essay explanation to show that Tony is always correct in response to my tongue in cheek joke to you. Some mistakes in your rant below:
- Majid said that my question was “very valid” not just valid.
- he said he really hopes that National Bank does pick up coverage as they have been lobbying them. He said he there is another UK analyst coverage pending, not that he hoped for more UK coverage.
Have a cup of tea and chillax a bit and be happy that i3 IR & shareholder communication has improved immensely from IBB_Invest’s instance to management from Tony’ prior status quo low expectations ;-)
Thanks Joe. Do you know if CNRL ever developed their Hangingstone asset?
IBB_Invest, in its argument with 'Know It All Tony' has been vindicated in the debate over Canadian coverage by none other than i3 Energy CEO, Majid Shafiq. Recall Tony' position that Canadian coverage is the result of low Canadian ownership and not the other way around. IBB' position is that Canadian ownership is low is because no one in Canada knows who the hell i3 Energy is even though 100% of revenue comes from Canada.
During yesterdays Investor Meet Company webinar, an excellent question regarding Canadian coverage was asked and Majid has this to say:
"Look, obviously we want trading in our stock. We want more liquidity. All of that liquidity at the moment is in London. The question around research in Canada IS A VERY VALID ONE as we would like more liquidity in Canada and hopefully that will happen".
Thanks Majid for the support against Tony!
Found another Easter egg regarding Hangingstone. i3 board chair, John Festival, is also on the board of Hangingstone producer, Athabasca Oil. Would you look at that
Wow, what happened to Canuck?! He provided some good info and opinion that didn’t include a factually incorrect rant about Polus!
Regarding i3 Energy being land speculators, my take is that Majid sat on this thermal oil Hangingstone land waiting for the perfect moment to bring it to market to extract maximum value. That moment is now with Transmountain Pipeline opened since May 1st with Canadian heavy oil discount narrowing and signs of US shale oil declines becoming more evident which makes Canadian thermal oil with its ultra low declines very valuable going forward. Investment is ramping up in the oil sands and i3 management know this. Will be very interesting to see what they get for this.
Tony, fully agree. My takeaway notes from that excellent presentation too. Have to hand it to management, we are seeing a step up in investor and IR engagement both in terms of frequency and quality.
That was my question to management regarding the N.E. Alberta land which they indicated is Hangingstone. No one knew that they had a land position there so this is another freebie. Hangingstone is heavy thermal oil (oil sands) which needs SAGD for extraction. I3 Energy is not a heavy thermal oil producer so completely non-core and, by management comments that they cannot talk much on it, an asset sale is very likely underway on this. Hangingstone is a core area of Athabasca and Greenfire so these are two candidates likely in the process of buying i3’ acreage there. Value is unknown as it’s non-producing however heavy oil pricing has flipped and very very valuable now so fingers crossed there could be some good cash coming to the balance sheet soon with this non-core sale!
Why should Tony or any longer term i3 Energy investors show GGG respect and kiss his feet. He knows little about the company or the Canadian O&G industry en large. He trades in and out of this company on a weekly basis posting his trades like investing is some kind of genital measuring contest. He’s not an investor and warrants little respect from those that are investors and do the homework like Tony.
Tony, you just love to be always right and argue for the take of arguing. You have zero knowledge that Shubham doubled his position in i3 Energy. He may have however it could also easily because of confirmed losses in other holdings. You are misleading investors by saying with surety that he has doubled his i3 position and it’s a seal of approval etc etc. Happy to be proven wrong if you want to contact Shubham and confirm.
I wouldn't rely too much into this. Shubham' portfolio has had some zeros with Razor Energy bankrupcy and several call options (e.g. Vermillion) expiring worthless. The portfolio has therefore shrunk increasing the weighting of surviving holdings such as i3 Energy.
I posted elsewhere that I got a response from IR and this was an entirely non-core asset sale with no revision to working interest average or marked drilling locations. Excellent stuff.
Agree 100% Tony. Win win deal.
I messaged IR about this deal and got the following response from management today (IR turn around has picked up recently):
Q1 - With this disposition, what are the acreage revisions for i3' Central Alberta, Clearwater, Wapiti and Simonette plays?
A1 - There are no acreage revisions for the Company’s working interest positions and no revisions for reserves. Royalty barrels are not included in reserves.
Q2 - Furthermore, does this disposition reduce the booked locations of 391 (254.4 net) across the Company's four core areas per the March 25th 2024 Reserves Report?
A2 - No there are no changes in booked locations at all, booked or not booked in the Company’s reserves.
I don’t think the buyer overpaid at all. I also don’t think the i3 sold it for dirt cheap either. I think it was just a deal that works for both sides. It’s royalty land, the net income could be $5M or even $10M in a few years in the buyers hands and if that is the case, they got it for very cheap. Time will tell how it works out for them. Still a good deal today for i3 for this non-core disposition as it allows them many option going forward.
A little nosey birdy found out that their new Canadian lender is National Bank. For those that don't know, National Bank are a leading Canadian business lender that publish great company analysis. i3 couldn't have gotten a better Canadian bank to partner with. They are integral to the Western Canadian oil industry. Great job management on this effort!
Good analysis Tony on the per barrel income and netback on their royalty barrels. What was very interesting to me during yesterday's Proactive interview was Majid talking about the potential future income from their Simonette Montney lands which they kept. There is huge interest in the Montney (its becoming known as a word class basin) and several 100% Montney producers working there now running rigs year round. Only a matter of time that i3' 35 Simonette royalty barrels are 350 boe/d or even 3500 boe/d. The Montney metrics are far better than Central Alberta however using $25 -20/boe that you calculated is a great baseline:
@ 350 boe/d = 127,750 boe / year x $30 = $3.8M USD
@ 3500 boe/d = 1,277,500 boe / year x $30 = $38.3M USD
Recall that the company believes that their Simonette could produce 30k+ boe/d if fully developed.
So potentially huge future income with little company drilling risk from their Simonette royalty still.
I still disagree with out on your view of the low Canadian coverage being the result of only 10% Canadian share ownership. Still my view that the 10% is the result of next to no Canadian institutional coverage and not the other way round. We shall agree to disagree on this one.
I also messaged IR showing them the extensive and impressive coverage by all of i3' peers and today got the finally response:
"I3 hired Canaccord Genuity as broker in Canada last year and the firm has published research on i3 Energy which is distributed to the institutional market in North America."
“Nothing really interesting in the report except they state drilling to be Oil Focused - really forrest ! But the interesting bit aquisitions may focus on Gas !”
Yes, no one should expect an oily acquisition with oil at $85. Won’t get bargains in the environment as everyone is making money.
Alberta AECO gas on the other hands is at cyclical lows of around $1 USD. US Permian gas is negative $4. That means these producers need to PAY someone to take the gas from them.
If the gas market in Canada further deteriorates this summer which is very likely could, there might be some very very cheap gas assets on the market or levered take-over targets for i3. Majid & Co will be like vultures I expect now that they have a fortress debt free balance sheet. Excellent position to be in for astute deal makers like i3 management.