The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
100% agree, a lot of dribble/conspiracy theories. It would seem some on this board want and/or are happy to see TBN fail. which seems counter productive to the success of our shares in Falcon. From what I can see TBN achieved a lot in the last 2/3 years (The exception being average amungee 2H results). Offtake agreements with Shell/BP, grabbed Origin's share of the beetaloo, LOI's with east gas customers, Pipeline agreements, bringing HP/liberty on board and having sheffield onborad as a cornerstone investor from day dot. That you can take the bank and use in funding negotiations.
Worst case scenario and TBN did fail and went quietly in the night? then what? wait a year or two for someone to take over, then another 2 years for them to develop a plan to get the beetaloo productin gas (TBN already have this plan)
I do pity POQ, he cops some of these negative/conspiracy related question in the FOG meetings. There was a recent post here by some poster. Short of it being the Q was asked bout sheffield wanting to do a takeover (2023 meeting) to which he subsequently laughed and said nah. The poster implied the response to the question was it was a "wink/wink" that might happen from sheffield. When I watch video all I could see was POQ rolling his eyes thinking another average (stupid) question.
Watch the 2022 meeting and I see POQ rolling his eyes at some morew average questions..
One of my other recent laughs was someone talking about TBN listing on the NASDAQ?? Last I knew FOG was an O&G (oil and gas) company, not a technology company like Microsoft.
The apointment of 2 directors into TBN from shefflied implies he is taking control?? this is standard practice in australia when you have so much money invested? Does anyone really think Sheffield was not closely involved before then? I would be worried if sheffield through 10's of millions at TBN (and EEG) was not knwoledgable on future plans.
Seems a very prudent activity to domicile in the US with all the woke crap going on in Australia. Have the negative nancies on this board seen the crap Santos (Barossa/Narribri) and Woodside (Scarborough) have had to deal with recently? Something TBN have been very open about for over a year about looking at various funding options.
gotta like the inpex boss and japanese embassador to australia ripping into the new policy.
https://www.au.emb-japan.go.jp/files/100483932.pdf
TBN has a new research report on their website.
https://www.tamboran.com/research-reports/?agreed
Agreed @wetwater.
The trucks are coming a few weeks here or there doesn't mater really?
The H&P rig is close to being on the way. Would be a lot more worried about the current government doing their best to scupper the Oil and Gas industry in OZ. (Could work in our favour though if they shag the industry sooo much that TBN/FO.V/STO/Inpex are ready to fill the gap they cause?????)
Personally hanging out on riddles comments during the origin acquistion with more detail on the future plans/pipes....etc. Which if I recall was 6-9 months away as mentioned at the time
Ofcourse assumes they can get it working. Sto currently 55% way through build of smaller ccs facility in the Cooper basin. 1.7 mtpa capacity and due to start sinking first CO2 24/25 or something. Cooper basin been supplying gas and oil to Australia for 40 years so assume there are a few more places they can stick co2 if they're were to expand.
Ccs bit of a bad name in Aussie due to issues chevron been having pumping the proposed amount/nameplate capacity of co2 at their gorgon field in WA. But they are slowly working through their problems and the geology of the fields is more conducive to ccs in the depleted cooper/bayun-udan fields (apparently). Technology will have improved and some good lessons learned one would assume.
Under the new Aussie regulations all large gas emitters are required to reduce CO2 emissions by 5% a year out to 2030. Ichthsys LNG current, 7mtpa, Darwin LNG 5mtpa. 5% YoY for those together comes to about 4mtpa CO2 needing to be suckes under the ground leaving approx 6mtpa spare capacity of their proposed ccs facility. New regulations also state new gas facilities must be at or under a wishy washy baseline number. Assume. Using some very dodgy math that would imply bayu-udan can support 3 new plants as well as the three existing ones and still have 2 mtpa spare capacity (4 + 4 + 2). Will assist in making it that little easier for any large projects to get approved by any party in power.
From santos quarter report. Wonder if some of those customers are potentially building new LNG plants, 10mtpa is a lot of co2
Santos Energy Solutions
Front end engineering design work on the Bayu-Undan CCS project is nearing completion along with selection of key
equipment packages. Engagement with the Timor-Leste and Australian governments on regulatory and commercial
frameworks continued throughout the quarter. MOUs have now been executed with three potential customers, with
demand for CCS services from potential customers equivalent to the maximum sequestration capacity of 10 mtCO2pa
I doubt this work will have any meaningful impact at all. Generally will only do one lane at time, section by section, allowing traffic with traffic lights to take turns using the other lane at reduced speeds.
Interesting to see what someone currently thinks a company is worth producing more than 1bcf/day + is worth??. No idea on what their potential reservers are or acerage is. Cheaper to ship gas to Tokyo from Australia than the US.
Tokyo Gas (OTCPK:TKGSF) (OTCPK:TKGSY) is in advanced talks to buy U.S. natural gas producer Rockcliff Energy from P-E firm Quantum Energy Partners in a deal worth ~$4.6B including debt, Reuters reported late Tuesday.The all-cash deal with Houston-based TG Natural Resources, which is 70% owned by the Japanese company, likely will be announced this month, according to the report.Rockcliff produces more than 1B cf/day of natural gas from the Haynesville shale formation in Louisiana and east Texas, triple the 330M cf/day of gas produced by TG Natural Resources as of June 2022.Japan is seeking to diversify from Russia's Sakhalin project, which accounts for 9% of Japan's total liquefied natural gas imports of 74.3M metric tons/year.
My feeling, and assuming we get good results from A2H, what we think we know or guess is happening is 6-12 months behind what negotiations are really happening with all stakeholders whether they be upstream, mid stream or down stream.
This is a huge resource with low CO2 content with the potential to pump much of the CO2 generated during liquification back under the ground.
In that scenario we have the upper hand with negotiations with whoever the potential customers are.
My feeling, and assuming we get good results from A2H, what we think we know or guess is happening is 6-12 months behind what negotiations are really happening with all stakeholders whether they be upstream, mid stream or down stream.
This is a huge resource with low CO2 content with the potential to pump much of the CO2 generated during liquification back under the ground.
In that scenario we have the upper hand with negotiations with whoever the potential customers are.
Happy New Year to all:)
All options are on the table but have differing probabilities.
My base case is TBN/FO stay the course and develop it. Looking longer term with the focus being on full field development there are a few random ideas bouncing around in my head most with respect to funding. At some point TBN/FO will be able to get some part of funding from some banks somewhere. The rest will come from us doing some sort of haircut with owned percentages to potential customers/partners. Santos and Inpex would seem to be the best fit here with a percentage here and there to some Japanese/Korean/Taiwanese/Chinese utilities/investment houses.
I am really excited to see how things pan out over the next year with respect to flow rates (if this first well flows really well at A2H, do we hold off on the A3H until the H&P rig comes so the funds can be spent on drilling 3K plus laterals).
TBN/FO take a haircut with FO taking a slightly larger one as TBN can tip in more from their other tenaments. I am too lazy to check the numbers but comments from all the majors around the $40+ billion they spent on the three LNG plants in Gladstone was it was stupid, in hindsight, to build three bridges to Curtis island, three wharfs on Curtis Island.......(where the plants are in gladstone). To me it seems logical some evening out over core beetaloo tenamants will happen with Santos and other key stakeholders holders to filund full field development. With that in mind I don't think there is any need for TBN or FO to sell the farm to make things happen and for all to be very happy in retirement playing golf whilst a massive resource is developed over many many years.
STO will have more than enough money out of their free cash flow to be a big player in all of this. Their big funding commitments over the coming years are for Alaska (US), PNG (new guinea), Barossa (NT) and Narrabri (NSW). Those big capital intensive financial commitments all finish around 2026 give or take a year. 2027+ seems about the right time that big dollars will be needed for beetaloo full field development. The other thing of note with respect to STO is they are actively working towards a massive CCS project in Darwin 10+ mtpa. Seems very convenient for them to be a major player in the beetaloo.
I am very happy to sit a long and enjoy the ride. Other points of note probably are:
-Jemena/apa being nice and friendly with each other with respect to pipelines.
-empire energy and where do they fit (TBN/FO potentially, most likely more productive areas over the long term)
-woke media
-federal government 1.5 billion funding for middle arm in Darwin +++ a few 100 million here and there for other supportive projects, road upgrades, infrastructure hubs/corridors and the NAIF (northern Australia infrastructure fund) which jemena/apa can probably tap into to help provide cheap finance for the pipes
Time for some more panadols
Meh, London yearly rainfall 585, northern territory 1785. And all concentrated over a few months, might get 300+ in 24 hours at the eye for a bad storm. So **** gets wet. Wait for it to dry out and carry on. Being close to the paved road will reduce downtime. Sections of paved roads can get wiped out aswell. 100% nothing worth having a sook about.