Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Many of us were very unhappy with the deal that has now fallen through as it would have left us with less than 14% of our major asset. We now still have a 47.5% share of a gas field which has the potential to supply 30% of Morocco's gas demand. Morocco is keen to be more self sufficient in meeting its own energy demands. The gas is there and the demand is waiting. All that is missing is the way of getting it to market. The simplest and most efficient way to do this is by pipeline. The pipeline will be expensive but its cost is just a small fraction of the total potential asset and it would pay for itself in a relatively short time.
The cost and time needed to set up one or more micro LNG plants is going to be relatively small but will give us time to find funding for the pipeline. An investor in the pipeline would be reassured to see that gas is actually being produced even if on a small scale.
If the pipeline doesn't come into being, we must'n forget that there is a railway line not a million miles from the Te5 Horst.
EIA of the gas treatment plant and compression station:
The Company advises that the EIA process related to CPF is progressing well. The initial meeting of the National Committee from the Moroccan Ministry of Energy, Mines and Environment to review the CPF EIA was held on 10 October 2019. The second meeting of National Committee to further consider and, if agreed, to approve CPF EIA is scheduled on 28th January 2020.
Jan 28th has passed. EIA approval might shine a little light in the darkness but has there been any news? Next RNS?
Thanks MikeGP for sharing that. Somewhat reassuring explanation of the time taken to establish 'the commercial potential of this exciting discovery". It is now over three months since the discovery and what remaining funds we have must be being eaten up. Is Te11 still a possibility? Everything hinges on proving Te10 is at least commercial if not a potential production hub.
Is "re-entering the well and cleaning it up" another way of saying: using the still awaited coiled tubing to extend the well horizontally into the Tagi stratigraphic up-dip. The whole point of CT is that it can turn through a small radius from vertical to horizontal. IMO a good use of funds and hopefully worth the extended wait for results. We have to be patient.
I suspect that the reason that there is a delay in starting TE-11 even though its location has been confirmed and the drill rig is still at TE-10 where it is not needed as part of the ongoing well testing, is not simply because of the low cost storage there. It would make little sense to move the rig to TE-11 if there is a chance that the decision may be made to prove significant and commercial flow-rates from the TAGI near TE-10 with horizontal drilling as was done with TE-7. We have confirmed that there is gas down there; we have to prove it is commercial.
https://checalc.com/solved/gasPipeSizing.html
Thank you Prudent for you summary and all your hard work in putting it together. Although no one can know the true value until the sale is agreed it is reassuring to have your estimates. All figures can only be estimates with a wide range but I am sure we all agree that the company does have value considerably in excess of the current share price . I am going to hold until LE.
From what little I understand, RSDD-H might have given reassurance about the presence of hydrocarbons but from all we already know about the surrounding geology, we were fairly certain that hydrocarbons were to be found, as indeed they were. Would we have been any better off to have invested in RSDD-H?
The problem is low porosity and non commercial flow rate. Surely seismic should be able to give some indication of structural porosity? Sound velocity through rock is dependent on rock density?
I found this helpful. https://dinoenergycorporation.com/index.php/oil-and-gas-2/
We are all deeply disappointed by the outcome of TE9 and it is only human to want to point fingers and find someone to blame. It is probably not fair to blame BM and the geology team for the failure. They had the benefit of high quality seismic, which all pointed to high potential source kitchen, reservoir zone and a 1000m salt trap. BM, I'm sure, honestly believed this was "the best you can get". The drill confirmed the geology and hydrocarbons have been encountered but the seismology was not able to reveal the low porosity of the reservoir formation, which is what has let us down. This is what makes O&G exploration such high risk; there is no certainty ahead of the drill bit. This is the risk which we all took on in the hope, not expectation of high reward.
This is a set back but not the end of the company, which has a worth in already proven resources, grossly undervalued by the current share price. We still have two more already funded drills, backed by the highest calibre geology and drill teams and equipment. I'm sure the hydrocarbons are there somewhere but we can only hope the reservoir strata prove to be productive.
None of us should have been expecting a smooth ride for the rewards hoped for.
Hold tight!
I think many of us were expecting or hoping for a positive RNS this morning, as we were only 800m from TD one week ago. No news has pushed the SP further down. If the TAGI was a "dry hole", it would be a relatively simple matter to drill across it into the paleo and on to TD. The more productive the TAGI is, the greater the difficulties in sealing it without damaging it while crossing through it, so drill progress should be quite slow and challenging. This is a case of No News being very positive news, even though the wait is so painful!
Good luck all
We all have high hopes for TE9 but the reality is that there are no certainties in exploration and the chance of failure on any single new location drill is higher than the COS, however good the seismic. The potential gains of success and the information to be gained from drilling TE9, even if it is a dry hole, more than justify the risk.
In the event of a dry hole at TE9, the value of the company and the SP would drop at least in the short term. A dry hole at TE9, or even, in the unlikely, but not impossible, event for the next three drills, is not going to make the company worthless. We have proven assets at Sidi and at TE6 & 7 as well as other tangible resources that make the company valuable. It would not surprise me if this existing value actually exceeds the current value represented by today's SP.
As JP has said, the company is only worth what it can be sold for. However, there must be some way of valuing the existing assets which would give an idea of the company value and hence the SP in the event of all drills failing. Has any one any ideas on the worst case scenario value and SP?
I have placed several buy orders this morning, every one of which has been registered as a sell. Rather more than I feel would have occurred by chance. I am left with the feeling that the mechanism for displaying trades as sells or buys being controlled, I am sure other punters have noted this.