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You have to consider if there is still a lack of understanding of the economics. Even with the help of Archer through his substack and his TG group with well over 1K members, would appear the business case for Hope is definitely out there, but is currently competing for investors with a good few other serious projects that are also promoted through the substack.

He has a big following, highly respected for his professional analysis and deep dives into project economics and company financial health. He has a strict criteria for companies he takes on.

So now, the highest quality projects that have had access to funds or funding having seen them being advanced, leaves investors with capital to spend, spoilt for choice.

I have always known a projects IRR to be a good metric to use to compare similar scale projects. Hope IRR through year two is firmly above 150%! still achieved through the lowest grade years of the existing mine plan

20% - 30% IRR is typical in CapEx recovery phase with 50% considered healthy once free cash flow goes straight to the bottom line. Other similar projects of scale that are out there do not even come close to Hope IRR and most are having to give away far more than BZT’s 10% project NPV to partners.

Thanks Prickly, be interesting to see how the increase in ownership and the updated financial model also affects the (base case) return in year one and if, or by how much it reduces the CapEx payback period once all the latest info is plugged in.

154% return currently estimated for year 1 with payback in 7-8 months from ‘first’ production. Eating into that whilst still in commissioning and initial ramp up phase is impressive already. Meaning debt free within just months before even getting anywhere near year two, they will not be bogged down with paying back their capital outlay which I think gets largely overlooked.

Hi Hubstar just to not mislead. You say “will net £50m”but this I assume you mean revenue and mistakenly put in £ instead of $.

Based on the feasibility study metrics, Year 1 Net Profit according to Archer is $13.84 million based on 70% ownership, now increased to 90%. He even factored a ‘real world profit forecast of between 11-12m usd in the first year @70% giving a sensible margin of error while productivity gets established during ramp up. Would add , this forecast is based on lower metal prices.

That is just the first full year ramp up and commissioning, it does however, improve significantly in year two and on as the mine matures.

Archer said he will revisit the economics once the financing and terms are announced.

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I found a 2013 Technical Report on Telfer mine, which includes a detailed review of production sources and mining history. In the report, before the starter mine reached full production in 1977, it required a phase of ‘unusually’ high overburden removal to access the ore body at that time.

The depth of overburden removed in 1977 is not explicitly quoted in the summary, but confirms that significant overburden stripping was necessary during the initial open pit mining phase.

Typically, overburden removal depth can vary widely depending on the geology and orebody depth but often ranges from tens to over a hundred meters.

This is a positive indicator that a depth penalty would not necessarily hamper a viable resource, when you take the geological snd metallurgical factors into consideration that RS potentially shares being proximal to Telfer.

“Do they really believe posting on X is going to move this Bxxxxy share price,get real and get some exciting news”

On the plus side to that is whilst the PR is low key, you can be rest assured that there are adequate funds in treasury to fund this exploration season without the need to come back to the market with their begging bowl.

Remember this, it is a big mineralised system than ‘generally’ needs to be scoped and then quantified. I believe red Setter is not going to be a case of whether there is enough rock to quantify a bulk tonnage mine but more of how the grades and their relationship will determine the scale of a potential mining operation.

Let the results do the talking.

Price at gate paid will depend on the copper percentage in the final concentrate delivered. Plus with a 100% off take agreement, the long term contract rate would be less than spot price which also would need to be taken into account.

No not at all Ntm, maybe leverage was not the best term.

Just saying he can control the news flow per company as appropriate, to which company’s market cap is most important in respect of raising capital which Kendrick will no doubt need as I explained.

Is not to knock Kendrick as I am an investor there too.

Makes sense to leverage the various CB companies cash flow position against one another to funnel as much investment into KEN currently up 30 odd % on news.

BZT is cashed up after last raise, as is XTR. Kendrick are ‘currently’ ok up to a non compliant MRE but will ‘undoubtably’ need to raise further funds, as was pretty much confirmed by MC and CB they have no intention of partnering up while they systematically increase the resource.

It’s in their interests to drive a higher market cap isn’t it? Without having to compete for cash investment against the other companies.

Maybe now we can be more certain news here will follow.

Cp- “My post was really intended to convey that open pit mining will not of itself require the sort of infrastructure taking years to build out to start.”

Was considering this too and on reflection there had been some pointers toward how the mine could develop.

Eldur from the metals and mining conference implied opening up a mining front at Nanoq to feed additional material to Nalunaq to ramp up throughput to 450tpd with addition of another mill and flotation bank. ( or certainly ‘toward’ increasing throughput rate along with further mining fronts at Nalunaq as they open up) Could assume this new ‘hypothetical’ UG mining front at Nanoq would be accessed from the trial portal becoming the new haul route. Additional revenue would help fast track a bigger operation on surface and wouldn’t interfere with the surface development either so they could operate in tandem.

Pretty sure they also said the bulk open pitable ore would be shipped off Greenland to a major mainland processing plant.

So all they would essentially require is delineating the outer extremities of the pit shell to establish where surface infrastructure needs to go including ore dumps, an ore sorter and accommodation camp.

It really could be that simple!

Hi CP when you say earlier open pit start up after road is complete, what timeframe are you considering?

As far as been reported, in parallel with the ‘26 drilling, they will “look to improve surface logistics on site to facilitate further phased exploration in 2027 and beyond.”

Same when I see supermarket sweep. Onions, avocados, carrots and cigars.

Also had a cathedral, a super yacht and then a damp squib!

Correction - I’m sure you probably meant meant FS for Black Angel 🔥

Hey Vanvan, apologies, but as much as a FS for Nanoq would be welcome this year, it is jumping the gun a bit. I’m sure you probably meant it’s maiden MRE.

The objective of ‘26 exploration is to establish continuity and increase data density with infilling of the central zone. All these results will be modelled prior to the MRE which is still not likely to be due out until Q1 ‘next’ year.

Probably ‘27 and ‘28 drill seasons before a PFS or PEA will be done at the least I would hazard a guess. It’s a big system!!

Respect, Guy

Microcap , can you explain how you are able to factually substantiate your statement that the board has not delivered?

Could have gone into production last month! Just because they haven’t yet reported it does not mean it hasn’t started.

Plant start up and commissioning could be construed as going into production, not considered as price sensitive information as entering commercial production would be.

Not trying to be deflective, I would hope going into production would mean commercial production with a saleable concentrate, or first pre selected high grade ore being sent straight to smelter at least as is usual to focus on the highest grades first dependant on mine plan of course.

But I’m sure when plant is running within its expected parameters with any start up issues ironed out we will be informed as and when.

After a bigoted comment like that, it is you that should f…o.

Safe to say that as they have used up their rampy trump card in pulling off the fund raise that is paying for this years exploration. -Overly saturated PR, endless X posts, rampy expert geophys hyperbole and oh yes, the drill core photos that showed nothing to be excited about.

That really was a masterclass in exploiting the AIM capital market. But shareholders will hopefully be shown some respect now as the company will not get away with it again.

All Investors this round will be on a level playing field and the majority will only be driven by actual results from RNS, but should still welcome additional PR but only in more supporting role this time that the company will utilise to answering shareholder questions and help to translate in laymen’s terms the more technical aspects from the RNS updates to come.

Do this well and be transparent about what they are doing, they will gain the respect of more shareholders. Hopefully, results will drive the share price up and not exaggerated findings and hyperbole.

This financing when it was announced, was of being part of the overall financing arrangement which stated was for down payments, critical component deposits, plant upgrades and mine site engineering works.

As seen from the recent update which was kindly posted, there has been significant progress in these areas so have every faith in that the final financing agreement along with the 100% off take agreement will be signed off soon.

Why? That all depends on your appetite for risk. The financing could land at any time. Buy now, or wait for the announcement to derisk start up but likely pay more.

Latest on point synopsis from Archer.

Has announced a dramatically upgraded mineral resource estimate for its Hope and Gorob copper-gold project in Namibia, with the open pittable resource growing sevenfold from 0.41Mt to over 3.0Mt on a gross basis, following independent assessment by Sound Mining.

The updated estimate also sees an improvement in resource confidence, with 1.1Mt now classified as Measured and 0.5Mt as Indicated, compared to the predominantly Inferred 2023 estimate, while the strip ratio has improved from 11:1 to 9:1, reducing mining costs.

As a result, the open pit life of mine extends from just one year to 7.5 years at a 0.4Mt per annum feed rate, and Phase 2 development — centred on a new flotation plant targeting 25,000 tonnes of copper metal annually and $290 million in revenue — has been brought forward by five years.

Further upside exists from an additional 3.6Mt of mineralisation not yet upgraded to resource status, 1.3Mt of lower-grade material within the pit shell recoverable via on-site ore sorting, and significant mineralisation outside the current pit shell that could add a further estimated five-plus years of open pit production with additional drilling.

Combined with the project interest increase from 70% to 90%, this all massively improves the already incredible economics - but while it’s very clear from Colin’s X posts that activity is ongoing at site, I can only really justify updating those figures when the financing announced last year comes through.

Remember though that production is slated for this calendar year, and the buyer pays at gate.- C Archer

Recent fundraise was to pay the cash element of the increase to 90% ownership and have enough working capital to fast track production.

All trades are matched and are simply reported as a buy or sell depending on which side of the mid price they were executed at. Unknown trades are those executed at the mid price.

People assume buys should push price up and sells down, when spreads, limits, off-book trades, and order-book imbalance actually drive movement.

Most price action is just low-liquidity behaviour, automated systems matching orders, continually moving the spread around to create liquidity to make their profits on the spread.

As investors we like to project some kind of meaning onto random price noise when things are not going as expected.

Expectations of high grades should not be at the forefront. Typically, a low grade resource does not mean it isn’t going to be economically viable. This would be particularly so if a ‘yet to be determined’ resource at RS has a low cut off grade. It is true there are less bulk tonnage mines operating from lower grade systems as they require much higher tonnages to be sustainably viable. However, a lower grade mine does have a big benefit. With a low economic cut off grade it would indicate that any future exploration only needs to be above this grade to add profitability to the project. If additional exploration finds grades of double the cut off grade or more, then the extra tonnage would contain a huge amount of extra potential profit to improve project NPV.

With economy of scale just small changes to inputs in the economic model can have a significant effect on outcome.

So the first major project milestone the company will be looking toward is a maiden JORC resource that will give average gold and copper equivelant grade contained within the rock, the overall tonnage of host rock that has been outlined and the cut off grade that determines how low grades can be, to make it into the next JORC update.

Maiden JORC will not come this year though, understanding the scale of the system first, designed also to target the strongest areas of alteration and sulphide mineralisation is necessary before they can start to fill in the gaps with just enough closer spaced targeted drilling to join up the mineralisation around the strongest area to get an inferred resource on the board to know what to do next.

So until there is a maiden JORC, it will be difficult to determine whether a grade is actually good or not, long runs of mineralisation from the cores are more preferable which gives greater bulk tonnage, which should be concentrated on more than just grade.

Looking forward to the story unfolding.