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Only up to a point, Potnak. As they outsource a great deal of work the BoD are at the mercy of others' own delays.
Hi Laz, as we aren't privy to all the meetings and therefore all the facts we are left to consider all the what ifs.
Further to the quote I posted yesterday from RF's RNS, is it possible that our current sp is down to nothing more than bad timing? The quote was from RGO's 22/3/24 RNS:
"...in advance of the Proposed Acquisition, the Company's existing debt and equity-linked portfolio investment portfolio has been redeemed in order to provide additional cash funds for RGO going forward whilst, at this stage, RGO's other investments, including the new loan to SVEN will be retained."
Is it simply a case of, if RF weren't focused on gathering funds to do a reverse takeover then they wouldn't have needed to dump our shares in order to accumulate whatever money was needed? If RF weren't looking to do the reverse t/o then perhaps they'd have had no need to sell their SAR shares.
If the above is correct then it might simply be that RF intended holding onto our shares for a big pay-off but they just didn't have enough funds to allow them to do that. The net result is they had no option but to sell our shares though safe in the knowledge they'd be issued more.
More over-thinking of the situation is available upon request.
Sorry, too early for mental arithmatic, now have five times as many shares. Woohoo.
I agree, Silver. My average is now a third of what it was two weeks ago and I've now got four times as many shares. My target sp is now greatly reduced and I believe quite achievable.
I vaguely recall Tim suggesting 1801 & 1802 could be worth £800m each. I don't think we'll reach those dizzying heights but looking at other deals, the values don't seem crazy. Plus we all know a license or sale would be based on the potential value of the compound, not the current m/cap of the company.
From RGO's 22/3/24 RNS, "...In advance of the Proposed Acquisition, the Company's existing debt and equity-linked portfolio investment portfolio has been redeemed in order to provide additional cash funds for RGO going forward whilst, at this stage, RGO's other investments, including the new loan to SVEN will be retained."
Maybe RGO now plan to actually hold on to the shares they'll get on Friday. And in other news, pigs might fly.
A fair point, Meg. IF a 1801 deal comes along prior to that date plus whatever 737 might give us then our sp could be quite significant by that point therefore minimal dilution via shares issued or pay them off out of the petty cash if we get a large enough upfront payment from a deal.
RF's m/cap is just £1.6m or thereabouts. It'd almost be worth buying the whole company just to fire their directors.
Hi Matt - you do have to question RF's motivation for dumping the shares as soon as they got them. Was it simply to claw back their investment in order to keep their own lights on or was it so trash our sp and damage sentiment for others to gain an upper hand in some way? RF must have been aware of what SAR does and the potential value of our IP & pipeline so dumping shares seems either desperate, short-sighted or deliberate. I can't decide which.
Hi chaps - head over to the RGO forum and read tank1's post dated 1 Feb 2024 11:16. Sounds like they're in a spot of bother themselves.
It appears that RF have us over a barrel for what in business terms is a fairly low amount of money. In light of the latest RNS will one of the HNWs or one of our resident heavy hitters (Billy-Bunter or ShepherdDollar?) now be considering contacting the BoD directly to offer funds specifically pay off RF? Could be a killer move on their part if they do.
Hi DrZ - section 5.1.2 of https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html says
"A person must notify the issuer of the percentage of its voting rights he holds as shareholder or holds or is deemed to hold through his direct or indirect holding of financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1R (1) (or a combination of such holdings) if the percentage of those voting rights:
(1)
reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R; or
(2)
reaches, exceeds or falls below an applicable threshold in (1) as a result of events changing the breakdown of voting rights and on the basis of information disclosed by the issuer in accordance with DTR 5.6.1 Rand DTR 5.6.1A R;
and in the case of an issuer which is not incorporated in the United Kingdom a notification under (2) must be made on the basis of equivalent events and disclosed information."
If they don't issue a TR1 then at least we'll know they've got less than 3%.
I presume if RF have 3% or more then they'll have to submit a TR1 to that effect.
Morning Laz, you also need to take into consideration the 9.5m placing shares from the raise. Presumably Hybridan feed them into the market as required so if RF are out of the picture then almost all of yesterday's buys were met from those 9.5m. Not sure where that leaves us re supply and demand.
As for predicting the sp, I attempted a spot of divination last night and tried reading the entrails of a spag bol from M&S. All that I could interpret was that it would most likely be followed by coffee and biscuits. Upon reflection I've decided that means £4 a share by Christmas.
Regards.
Hi Celtic - the curious thing is that the known terms of the deal have a remarkable similarity to the ProNai/Sierra one. So either it's Sierra wanting to pick up roughly where they left off, CPF just using a sort of 'standard in-house template' for deals or pure coincidence.
The simplest explanation is often the correct one, just don't ask me to choose one!
Sierra remains in operation under GSK's umbrella so I think the license RNS stating, "...a private biopharma company based in the United States..." could describe the situation.
Yeah, Potnak, we're only presuming 737 is somehow back in the hands of those who contributed to its development so that would mean either Boundless (Sierra's CSO now working there) or Sierra/GSK.
IF it's boomeranged back to Sierra then the 137,000 shares would presumably be GSK shares, currently trading for just over £16 - that'd be about £2.2m in our coffers before the start of next January if I recall the known terms of the deal.
On the other hand, plenty of preclinical research papers have been posted here singing the praises of 737 so maybe it'll be someone out of left field.
There are another couple of presentations (one happening tomorrow) that mention 737 -
https://www.abstractsonline.com/pp8/#!/20272/presentation/10507
https://nwm.covr.be/cmPortal/searchable/eai24/config/normal#!abstractdetails/0000998790
Clearly our focus here is on Sareum so it's easy to forget the dozens of other small UK biotechs jostling for funding. If the RF deal really was the best or only option, just think of the other companies who couldn't even get that.
Stumbled across this article - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/06/london-bad-place-raise-money-life-sciences-john-bell/
Extract -
"One of Britain’s top life science leaders, Sir John Bell, has warned over an impending exodus of drug makers from London as he branded the City a “bad place to raise money”.
Sir John, an industry veteran known for his critical role steering the Covid vaccine rollout, said British biotech businesses “are all going to pack up and go somewhere else” if the UK’s equity markets do not become a better place to raise money.
The comments come just days after two British drug discovery companies announced they were quitting London’s junior market. On April 2 Redx Pharma unveiled plans to delist from the Alternative Investment Market (Aim), claiming its low valuation was “not conducive” to raising cash to spend on more treatments. It echoed an announcement from C4X Discovery a week earlier where it said it was leaving Aim because the recent downturn in the financial markets “adversely impacted our share price, and with it, our future ability to raise funds in the public markets”.
The moves have sparked fresh concerns over the health of the UK capital markets. The London Stock Exchange has been struck by a spate of exits over the past year, including travel giant Tui and Paddy Power-owner Flutter.
Sir John said it was like “night and day” comparing London with New York’s Nasdaq exchange.
He added: “The London public markets are just too light on investment capital. In general terms, they are a bad place to raise money.
“One of the whole reasons for being on the stock market is to raise capital, but that has stopped being the case on the London exchange.”
Sir John said this was leading to “inappropriate” valuations for many small and medium-sized biotech companies. “You can hear it going all down the gurgler already frankly.”
It comes as calls mount for bolder intervention from the Government to reverse the decline of London’s markets."
Hi Cobalt - yes, you're right that if the WRAP shares were bought inside an ISA then you're ok. I was suggesting anyone who picked up the 10p shares via a regular share account.
My apologies for any confusion.
Onwards!!
I took the gamble that although the MMs would probably push the price up to catch us early birds and the sp might drop later, if RF are out then we could see steady sp progress from here on. At least by jumping in first thing I got to fill my ISA at a price I was ok with.
For those who bought at 10p in the WRAP they might have to pay CGT if they're moving shares into this year's ISA as the CGT limit is now £3000 before you need to pay tax on profits.