Member Info for Hopan

I am trying to understand what was the main reason behind the latest drop from around 190 towards 120s in Jan. I am not an expert in these type of things but my humble theory is that the exclusion from some indeces and also new year reshuffle in at some large funds created a sell pressure of around 5 million shares. Since post RI, i.e. saturated buyers, and relatively low daily liquidity , and determined sellers created a big pressure on the price. These big funds do not care about price when they exit, so then 120 comes as a price.

Another thing is whether Sep-Oct are really good months to do RI?? Historically Sep is a negative return market.

It is understandable. I respect their views. However, as a short seller I would expect them trying to sell at a higher price as much as possible. What I see from the price action is quite the opposite. Trying to sell relatively big ticket sizes at the least liquid times to move the price down. I might be wrong to observe like this but this is my feeling.

Not sure but feels like someone wants the SP go down. Aggressively selling at the worst time of liquidity. It can be a forced seller but why you do it as soon as the market opens... maybe MM trying to offload the things they bought at the auction on Friday evening? OR underwriter is trying to offload 10mio shares they bought at 200p... Anyone knows how much fee they generated out of this RI?

Thanks Mike. That makes sense.

If you look at from market value perspective, before the RI at the price of 60p with 467m shares, the market value was £280mio. Post-RI, at the price of 179p with 163m shares outstanding the market value is £293m. If you divide this new market value by the Pre-RI number of shares, you get the price of 62.65p. This is after £275m cash injection, after so-called deleveraging a bit.

Forcing shareholders to pay more than what they already have invested and rump placement of 10,319,421 shares at 200p should have kept the SP under severe pressure, right?

What I don't understand: Before the RI, the company was valued around £250m. And after a fresh £275m cash into their coffers, now it is worth £313.23m according to LSE website. It does not make sense to me. RI is supposed to strengthened the company, and increase the credit risk so the share value goes up. This time did not work like that or is it just technical issue and the markets are not in a good mood?

... and with today's market price of 121.5p means about £50mio value. Therefore, if you distribute the remaining balance of £28mio to the rest of the portfolio, then you can say that the market is pricing 9% of the market price of the value on Feb 28th. It is something like an option premium as some people call it...
Again, this is an extremely risky investment. so no investment advice. just some amateur calculations, and probably wrong.

I am not an expert in these calculations, but my back of envelope estimates are as follows. Please do your own research.
I believe they paid the final dividend of 10p for 40mio shares, so a total of £4mio should be reduced from £18mio... so about £14mio in cash expected as of now. There is also HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN JSC GDR USD in the amount of 842766 shares on Feb 28th. With current prices, it is another £6mio. Then, NAC KAZATOMPROM JSC is about £1.4mio with current prices. So total of £21.4mio which corresponds to about 50p per share. This assumes zero value for the rest of the portfolio.

Looks like they dumped as much as they can before the quarter end... has not seen any in April.
It is in my retirement account, no rush to sell, and hope peace comes soon and things get normalised a bit.

Looks like big holders are still selling... one of them should have less than 3mio shares left..

It looks like they own Russian shares Lazard Emerging Market Fund according to the annual statement on Sep 2021.
https://www.lazardassetmanagement.com/uk/en_uk/funds/uk-funds/lazard-emerging-markets-fund/f230/s8/#:~:text=Reports%20%26%20Accounts%20%2D%20Annual
Not sure they directly own the shares or use JRS as a fund investment. More possibly via JRS...
They declared almost 0.00% holding of Russian shares, but if it is by market value then it makes sense since the value is now of £5mio, below the two decimal place after the zero.

It is a sad case for them... Last time they increased their holding on Dec 1, 2021 to 8,576,775 shares at a closing price of 775p, and as of now it is down to 5,888,255 shares. On paper their loss at the price of 100p is almost £58mio from Dec 1st. Very very sad. I wish no investor experience such a pain but this is life. Hope it recovers at some point.

Since Feb 25th, there is an increased sell off pressure on insurance stocks. I am surprised that since LRE was already at low levels but it went lower. I don't know the main reason why there is a sell off or maybe it is just a part of geopolitical risk off.

Hope it does create too much damage

Anyone thinks they might announce capital raise through right issues at the trading update this November after $200mio loss from cats? Is market pricing in such a possibiity? Any thoughts on this subject?

The last capital raise of £287mio was last year June 2020 for about 39.6 million new shares (19.5% of shares) at the price of 726p..

Do your own research before making any decision.

Looks like LRE is also down around similar level. HSX is down for the last 5 days. It looks like it is a specialty sector wide sell off.

I don't think the selloff is HSX specific. LRE, BEZ are also down equally. One big fund is reducing their exposure to the sector. This is my guess.

I believe there is a sector wide negativity... Probably some of the big funds are reducing their insurance -specialty insurance- exposure. In my personal opinion, it is a mistake. I might be wrong though.

My suspicion is that this is entirely due to market sentiment towards insurers especially after very high profile ransomware attacks. HSX also suffered like this, even though BEZ did more. so nothing particularly specific.
What ****es me off, they don't price the risk properly especially in relatively new areas like Cyber. This spike should be obvious after Covid, and they should have priced the risk appropriately. Combined Ratio is all about one how efficient you run your business two how well you price the risk.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/colonial-pipeline-has-cyber-insurance-policy-sources-2021-05-13/

Looks like BEZ is one of the insurers, capped by $15mio...